The early Eocene (~55 to 50 Ma) is a time period which has been explored in a large number of modelling and data studies. Here, using an ensemble of previously published model results, making up "EoMIP" – the Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project – and syntheses of early Eocene terrestrial and sea surface temperature data, we present a self-consistent inter-model and model–data comparison. This shows that the previous modelling studies exhibit a very wide inter-model variability, but that at high CO2, there is good agreement between models and data for this period, particularly if possible seasonal biases in some of the proxies are considered. An energy balance analysis explores the reasons for the differences between the model results, and suggests that differences in surface albedo feedbacks, water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, and prescribed aerosol loading are the dominant cause for the different results seen in the models, rather than inconsistencies in other prescribed boundary conditions or differences in cloud feedbacks. The CO2 level which would give optimal early Eocene model–data agreement, based on those models which have carried out simulations with more than one CO2 level, is in the range of 2500 ppmv to 6500 ppmv. Given the spread of model results, tighter bounds on proxy estimates of atmospheric CO2 and temperature during this time period will allow a quantitative assessment of the skill of the models at simulating warm climates. If it is the case that a model which gives a good simulation of the Eocene will also give a good simulation of the future, then such an assessment could be used to produce metrics for weighting future climate predictions

Abstract. During the period from approximately 150 to 35 million years ago, the Cretaceous–Paleocene–Eocene (CPE), the Earth was in a “greenhouse” state with little or no ice at either pole. It was also a period of considerable global change, from the warmest periods of the mid-Cretaceous, to the threshold of icehouse conditions at the end of the Eocene. However, the relative contribution of palaeogeographic change, solar change, and carbon cycle change to these climatic variations is unknown. Here, making use of recent advances in computing power, and a set of unique palaeogeographic maps, we carry out an ensemble of 19 General Circulation Model simulations covering this period, one simulation per stratigraphic stage. By maintaining atmospheric CO2 concentration constant across the simulations, we are able to identify the contribution from palaeogeographic and solar forcing to global change across the CPE, and explore the underlying mechanisms. We find that global mean surface temperature is remarkably constant across the simulations, resulting from a cancellation of opposing trends from solar and palaeogeographic change. However, there are significant modelled variations on a regional scale. The stratigraphic stage–stage transitions which exhibit greatest climatic change are associated with transitions in the mode of ocean circulation, themselves often associated with changes in ocean gateways, and amplified by feedbacks related to emissivity and planetary albedo. We also find some control on global mean temperature from continental area and global mean orography. Our results have important implications for the interpretation of single-site palaeo proxy records. In particular, our results allow the non-CO2 (i.e. palaeogeographic and solar constant) components of proxy records to be removed, leaving a more global component associated with carbon cycle change. This “adjustment factor” is used to adjust sea surface temperatures, as the deep ocean is not fully equilibrated in the model. The adjustment factor is illustrated for seven key sites in the CPE, and applied to proxy data from Falkland Plateau, and we provide data so that similar adjustments can be made to any site and for any time period within the CPE. Ultimately, this will enable isolation of the CO2-forced climate signal to be extracted from multiple proxy records from around the globe, allowing an evaluation of the regional signals and extent of polar amplification in response to CO2 changes during the CPE. Finally, regions where the adjustment factor is constant throughout the CPE could indicate places where future proxies could be targeted in order to reconstruct the purest CO2-induced temperature change, where the complicating contributions of other processes are minimised. Therefore, combined with other considerations, this work could provide useful information for supporting targets for drilling localities and outcrop studies.

The early Eocene (~55 to 50 Ma) is a time period which has been explored in a large number of modelling and data studies. Here, using an ensemble of previously published model results, making up "EoMIP" – the Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project, and syntheses of early Eocene terrestrial and SST temperature data, we present a self-consistent inter-model and model-data comparison. This shows that the previous modelling studies exhibit a very wide inter-model variability, but that at high CO₂, there is good agreement between models and data for this period, particularly if possible seasonal biases in some of the proxies are considered. An energy balance analysis explores the reasons for the differences between the model results, and suggests that differences in surface albedo feedbacks, water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, and prescribed aerosol loading are the dominant cause for the different results seen in the models, rather than inconsistencies in other prescribed boundary conditions or differences in cloud feedbacks. The CO₂ level which would give optimal early Eocene model-data agreement, based on those models which have carried out simulations with more than one CO₂ level, is in the range 2000 ppmv to 6500 ppmv. Given the spread of model results, tighter bounds on proxy estimates of atmospheric CO₂ during this time period will allow a quantitative assessment of the skill of the models at simulating warm climates, which could be used as a metric for weighting future climate predictions

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Abstract. A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P − E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP∕dT) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

New climate simulations using the HadCM3L model with a paleogeography of the Late Jurassic (155.5 Ma) and proxy-data corroborate that warm and wet tropical-like conditions reached as far north as the UK sector of the Jurassic Boreal Seaway (~35°N). This is associated with a northern hemisphere Jurassic Hadley cell and an intensified subtropical jet which both extend significantly poleward than in the modern (July-September). Deposition of the Kimmeridge Clay Formation (KCF) occurred in the shallow, storm-dominated, epeiric Boreal Seaway. High-resolution paleo-environmental proxy data from the Kimmeridge Clay Formation (KCF;~155-150 Ma), UK, are used to test for the role of tropical atmospheric circulation on meter-scale heterogeneities in black shale deposition. Proxy and model data show that the most organic-rich section (eudoxus to mid-hudlestoni zones) is characterized by a positive δ 13 C org excursion and up to 37 wt % total organic carbon (%TOC). Orbital modulation of organic carbon burial primarily in the long eccentricity power band combined with a clear positive correlation between %TOC carbonate-free and the kaolinite/illite ratio supports peak organic carbon burial under the influence of very humid climate conditions, similar to the modern tropics. This reinterpretation of large-scale climate relationships, supported by independent modeling and geological data, has profound implications for atmospheric circulation patterns and processes affecting marine productivity and organic carbon burial further north along the Boreal Seaway, including the Arctic.

Abstract. Evidence suggests that the early Eocene was a time of extreme global warmth. However, there are discrepancies between the results of many previous modelling studies and the proxy data at high latitudes, with models struggling to simulate the shallow temperature gradients of this time period to the same extent as the proxies indicate. Vegetation-climate feedbacks play an important role in the present day, but are often neglected in these palaeoclimate modelling studies, and this may be a contributing factor to resolving the model-data discrepancy.Here we investigate these vegetation-climate feedbacks by carrying out simulations of the early Eocene climate at 2 × and 4 × pre-industrial atmospheric CO 2 with fixed vegetation (homogeneous shrubs everywhere) and dynamic vegetation.The results show that the simulations with dynamic vegetation are warmer in the global annual mean than the simulations with fixed shrubs by 0.9 • C at 2 × and 1.8 • C at 4 ×. Consequently, the warming when CO 2 is doubled from 2 × to 4 × is 1 • C higher (in the global annual mean) with dynamic vegetation than with fixed shrubs. This corresponds to an increase in climate sensitivity of 26 %. This difference in warming is enhanced at high latitudes, with temperatures increasing by over 50 % in some regions of Antarctica. In the Arctic, ice-albedo feedbacks are responsible for the majority of this warming. On a global scale, energy balance analysis shows that the enhanced warming with dynamic vegetation is mainly associated with an increase in atmospheric water vapour but changes in clouds also contribute to the temperature increase. It is likely that changes in surface albedo due to changes in vegetation cover resulted in an initial warming which triggered these water vapour feedbacks.In conclusion, dynamic vegetation goes some way to resolving the discrepancy, but our modelled temperatures cannot reach the same warmth as the data suggest in the Arctic. This suggests that there are additional mechanisms, not included in this modelling framework, behind the polar warmth or that the proxies have been misinterpreted.

We present results of a pseudolongitudinal study of attitudes and beliefs about physics from different cohort groups ranging from final-year high school students in the UK to physics faculty (N=637), using the Colorado Learning Attitudes about Science Survey (CLASS) instrument. In terms of overall degree of expertlike thinking, we find little change in cohorts at different stages of their undergraduate degrees, with a flat profile of expertlike thinking across the years of an undergraduate degree. Significant differences in overall CLASS scores occur for cohorts across entry and exit points of the undergraduate program. At the entry boundary, our data for high school students provides strong evidence of a selection effect, with students who intend to major in physics at university displaying more expertlike views than those students who are merely studying the subject to final year in high school. A similar effect is suggested at the exit boundary but is not definitive