Rupture complexity, typically in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution pattern, significantly affects the local tsunami wave field. However, the effect of rupture complexity is not commonly considered in any form of tsunami hazard assessment. Taking rupture complexity into account significantly increases the computational load, particularly in regional‐scaled probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments (PTHAs) that usually require a large number of simulations based on synthetic scenarios. In this study, we investigate how the heterogeneous slip distribution affects the regional‐scaled PTHA by taking the South China Sea (SCS) as an example. By doing this, we update PTHA for the SCS by incorporating the best available information of seismic tsunamigenic sources along the Manila megathrust. We integrate a stochastic source model into a Monte Carlo‐type simulation, in which a broad range of slip distribution patterns is generated for large numbers of synthetic earthquake events. Green's function technique is employed to efficiently calculate the nearshore tsunami wave amplitude along the SCS coastlines. Our result suggests that for a relatively small and confined region like the SCS, the commonly used approach based on the uniform slip model significantly underestimates tsunami hazard not only in the near‐source region like west Luzon, as expected, but also in the relative far field, such as south China and central Vietnam. Additionally, our sensitivity test of the patch size effects suggests that large patch size is unable to adequately resolve the details of heterogeneous seafloor deformation, and such approaches considerably underestimate the potential tsunami hazard for the SCS coasts.
[1] The correlation between static Coulomb stress increases and aftershocks has thus far provided the strongest evidence that stress changes promote seismicity, a correlation that the Chi-Chi earthquake well exhibits. Several studies have deepened the argument by resolving stress changes on aftershock focal mechanisms, which removes the assumption that the aftershocks are optimally oriented for failure. Here one compares the percentage of planes on which failure is promoted after the main shock relative to the percentage beforehand. For Chi-Chi we find a 28% increase for thrust and an 18% increase for strike-slip mechanisms, commensurate with increases reported for other large main shocks. However, perhaps the chief criticism of static stress triggering is the difficulty in observing predicted seismicity rate decreases in the stress shadows, or sites of Coulomb stress decrease. Detection of sustained drops in seismicity rate demands a long catalog with a low magnitude of completeness and a high seismicity rate, conditions that are met at Chi-Chi. We find four lobes with statistically significant seismicity rate declines of 40-90% for 50 months, and they coincide with the stress shadows calculated for strikeslip faults, the dominant faulting mechanism. The rate drops are evident in uniform cell calculations, 100-month time series, and by visual inspection of the M ! 3 seismicity. An additional reason why detection of such declines has proven so rare emerges from this study: there is a widespread increase in seismicity rate during the first 3 months after Chi-Chi, and perhaps many other main shocks, that might be associated with a different mechanism.
Most thermophilic proteins tend to have more salt bridges, and achieve higher thermostability by up-shifting and broadening their protein stability curves. While the stabilizing effect of salt-bridge has been extensively studied, experimental data on how salt-bridge influences protein stability curves are scarce. Here, we used double mutant cycles to determine the temperature-dependency of the pair-wise interaction energy and the contribution of salt-bridges to ΔCp in a thermophilic ribosomal protein L30e. Our results showed that the pair-wise interaction energies for the salt-bridges E6/R92 and E62/K46 were stabilizing and insensitive to temperature changes from 298 to 348 K. On the other hand, the pair-wise interaction energies between the control long-range ion-pair of E90/R92 were negligible. The ΔCp of all single and double mutants were determined by Gibbs-Helmholtz and Kirchhoff analyses. We showed that the two stabilizing salt-bridges contributed to a reduction of ΔCp by 0.8–1.0 kJ mol−1 K−1. Taken together, our results suggest that the extra salt-bridges found in thermophilic proteins enhance the thermostability of proteins by reducing ΔCp, leading to the up-shifting and broadening of the protein stability curves.
Coastal cities safe from tsunami today may become tsunami-prone with sea-level rise.
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