A modest 0.5-m rise in sea level will double the tsunami hazard in Macau

Li, Linlin; Switzer, Adam D.; Wang, Yu; Chan, Chung-Han; Qiu, Qiang; Weiss, Robert

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aat1180

Cited by 88 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels is a major concern for low‐lying and highly populated coastal areas (Church et al, ; Li, Switzer, et al, ; Neumann et al, ; Stocker, ). Mean sea level (MSL), episodic water level fluctuations due to climate extremes, and astronomical tides all affect total observed sea levels and contribute to the occurrence of extreme high water levels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tide Gauge Records Show That the 18.61‐Year Nodal Tidal Cycle Can Change High Water Levels by up to 30 cm

et al. 2019

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The lunar nodal cycle, produced by the varying declination of the Moon over a period of 18.61 years, drives changes in tidal amplitude globally. However, constraining the range of changes in tidal amplitude that can be expected over a nodal cycle from real observations is rarely considered for coastal hazard planning. In this study, we use hourly tide gauge observations with record lengths >19 years from 574 stations distributed worldwide to examine the contribution of the nodal modulation to monthly high water levels. Our results show that the influence of the lunar nodal cycle on high water levels is largest at tide gauge stations located in the Gulf of Tonkin, English Channel, and Bristol Channel, amounting up to 30 cm in range, suggesting that in the coming decades the impact of the nodal cycle on high water levels in those regions could be greater than that of global mean sea level rise, which is up to 17 cm by 2030, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fifth assessment report projections. We also examine the phase of nodal modulation and show that the estimated phases exhibit two clusters: one cluster (111°± 10°) corresponds with the locations having a diurnal form of tides, whereas the other cluster (−59°± 11°) corresponds with the locations exhibiting a semidiurnal form of tides. Nodal modulation in the diurnal and semidiurnal locations will peak again in 2025 and 2034, respectively, resulting in enhanced potential for coastal hazard in the respective regions.Plain Language Summary Nodal modulation is slow variation of the amplitude of diurnal or semidiurnal ocean tides associated with relative motions of the Earth, Moon, and Sun over a period of 18.61 years. It is an important contributor to extreme sea levels and can increase the risk of coastal flooding at specific, forecastable times. We use hourly tide gauge observations from 574 stations distributed worldwide to estimate and map the contribution of the 18.61-year lunar nodal modulation to monthly high water levels. We find that nodal modulation has the largest influence on the monthly highest water levels at locations in the Gulf of Tonkin, in the Bristol Channel, and in the English Channel, amounting up to 30 cm in range, and the nodal modulation in the diurnal and semidiurnal locations will peak again in 2025 and 2034, respectively, with the potential for high levels of coastal hazard in the respective regions. Key Points:• We find that nodal modulations have the largest influences at locations in the Gulf of Tonkin, English Channel and Bristol Channel • We demonstrate that nodal modulation in the diurnal and semidiurnal locations will peak again in 2025 and 2034, respectively • We identify several locations within close proximity to one another where the 18.61-year nodal cycle is out of phase Supporting Information:• Supporting Information S1 2019). Tide gauge records show that the 18.61-year nodal tidal cycle can change high water levels by up to 30 cm.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tide Gauge Records Show That the 18.61‐Year Nodal Tidal Cycle Can Change High Water Levels by up to 30 cm

et al. 2019

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“…We use Cornel Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami model (COMCOT) to simulate the hydrodynamic process of the tsunami waves (e.g., Wang et al 2008;Philip 1994;Li et al 2018;Li et al 2016) produced by those proposed earthquake ruptures (The initial surface elevations generated by all the proposed rupture models can be found in Supplementary data). To account for the nonlinear effect in nearshore region, the simulation solves nonlinear shallow water equations in spherical coordinates for the entire SCS region with a bottom Manning friction coefficient of 0.013 (Li et al, 2018). We used the 1 arc-minute grid of General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) data for the modeling.…”

Section: Tsunami Simulation Set Upmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, if a large megathrust earthquake (e.g. Mw >9) were to occur within the SCS basin (Li et al, 2018), the impact would be amplified and much more devastating as the SCS is only ca.1/20 the size of the Indian Ocean. It is therefore crucial to provide physical-based earthquake rupture models for a more realistic tsunami hazard assessment in the SCS region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revised earthquake sources along Manila Trench for tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea

Qiu¹,

Li²,

Hsu³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. Seismogenic tsunami hazard assessments are highly dependent on the reliability of earthquake source models. Here in a study of the Manila subduction zone (MSZ) system, we combine the geological characteristics of the subducting plate, the geometry, and coupling state of the subduction interface to propose a series of fault rupture scenarios. We divide the subduction zone into three rupture segments: 14° N–16° N, 16° N–19° N and 19° N–21.7° N inferred from geological structures associated with the down-going Sunda plate. Each of these segments is capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude between Mw 8.5+ and Mw 9+, assuming a-1000-year seismic return period as suggested by previous studies. The most poorly constrained segment of the MSZ lies between 19° N–21.7° N, and here we use both local geological structures and characteristics of other subduction zone earthquakes around the world, to investigate the potential rupture characteristics of this segment. We consider multiple rupture modes for tsunamigenic-earthquake type and megathrust-splay fault earthquakes. These rupture models facilitate an improved understanding of the potential tsunami hazard in the South China Sea (SCS). Hydrodynamic simulations demonstrate that coastlines surrounded the SCS could be devastated by tsunami waves up to 10-m if large megathrust earthquakes occur in these segments. The regions most prone to these hazards include west Luzon of Philippines, southern Taiwan, the southeastern China, central Vietnam and the Palawan Island.

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“…The tsunami hazard research in the South China Sea (SCS) has been mostly focused on megathrust earthquakes along the Manila Trench, which is believed to be the primary tsunami source capable of generating basin‐wide tsunami (e.g., L. Li, Switzer, et al, ; L. Li et al, ; Liu et al, ; Megawati et al, ; Sepúlveda et al, ; Terry et al, ). However, recent activity in submarine exploration has produced high‐resolution bathymetric and 2‐D/3‐D seismic data that reveal hundreds of submarine landslides in the continental slopes of the SCS including those observed in the Pearl River Mouth Basin (Chen et al, ; He et al, ; W. Li, Wu, Völker, et al, ; Sun, Alves, et al, ; Sun, Cartwright, et al, ; Sun et al, ; Sun et al, ; Wang et al, ; Wu et al, ), offshore southwest Taiwan (Su et al, ), southeast Hainan (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tsunamigenic Potential of the Baiyun Slide Complex in the South China Sea

Shi

et al. 2019

JGR Solid Earth

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The Baiyun slide complex contains geological evidence for some of the largest landslide ever discovered in the continental slopes of the South China Sea. High‐resolution seismic data suggest that a variety of landslides with varied scales have occurred repeatedly in this area. The largest landslide reconstructed from bathymetric and seismic data has an estimated spatial coverage of ~5,500 km2 and a conservative volume of ~1,035 km3. Here, using geomorphological and geotechnical data, we construct a series of probable landslide scenarios and assess their tsunamigenic capacity. By treating the slides as deformable mudflows, we simulate the dynamics of landslide movements. The simulated landslide motions match the geophysical observations interpreted in previous studies. Particularly, we are able to reproduce the spatial distribution of observed runout, including the distance, shape, and deposit thickness, for the most credible slide scenario. We investigate tsunami impacts generated by different slide scenarios and highlight the importance of initial water depth, sliding direction, and nearshore bathymetry. The worst‐case scenario is capable of producing basin‐wide tsunami, with maximum wave amplitudes reaching ~5 m near Hong Kong and Macau, 1–3 m in western Philippines, and at least 1 m along central Vietnam, southeast Hainan, and southern Taiwan. The most noticeable phenomenon we observed is that the southern Chinese coast is the hardest‐hit region in all the simulated scenarios regardless of the diverse slide features. We conclude that the persistence of high tsunami impact is caused by the unique bathymetric feature of the wide continental shelf in front of southern China.

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A modest 0.5-m rise in sea level will double the tsunami hazard in Macau

Abstract: Coastal cities safe from tsunami today may become tsunami-prone with sea-level rise.

Cited by 88 publications

References 45 publications

Tide Gauge Records Show That the 18.61‐Year Nodal Tidal Cycle Can Change High Water Levels by up to 30 cm

Tide Gauge Records Show That the 18.61‐Year Nodal Tidal Cycle Can Change High Water Levels by up to 30 cm

Revised earthquake sources along Manila Trench for tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea

Tsunamigenic Potential of the Baiyun Slide Complex in the South China Sea

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