Rupture complexity, typically in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution pattern, significantly affects the local tsunami wave field. However, the effect of rupture complexity is not commonly considered in any form of tsunami hazard assessment. Taking rupture complexity into account significantly increases the computational load, particularly in regional‐scaled probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments (PTHAs) that usually require a large number of simulations based on synthetic scenarios. In this study, we investigate how the heterogeneous slip distribution affects the regional‐scaled PTHA by taking the South China Sea (SCS) as an example. By doing this, we update PTHA for the SCS by incorporating the best available information of seismic tsunamigenic sources along the Manila megathrust. We integrate a stochastic source model into a Monte Carlo‐type simulation, in which a broad range of slip distribution patterns is generated for large numbers of synthetic earthquake events. Green's function technique is employed to efficiently calculate the nearshore tsunami wave amplitude along the SCS coastlines. Our result suggests that for a relatively small and confined region like the SCS, the commonly used approach based on the uniform slip model significantly underestimates tsunami hazard not only in the near‐source region like west Luzon, as expected, but also in the relative far field, such as south China and central Vietnam. Additionally, our sensitivity test of the patch size effects suggests that large patch size is unable to adequately resolve the details of heterogeneous seafloor deformation, and such approaches considerably underestimate the potential tsunami hazard for the SCS coasts.
Turbid coral reefs experience high suspended sediment loads and low-light conditions that vertically compress the maximum depth of reef growth. Although vertical reef compression is hypothesized to further decrease available coral habitat as environmental conditions on reefs change, its causative processes have not been fully quantified. Here, we present a high-resolution time series of environmental parameters known to influence coral depth distribution (light, turbidity, sedimentation, currents) within reef crest (2–3 m) and reef slope (7 m) habitats on two turbid reefs in Singapore. Light levels on reef crests were low [mean daily light integral (DLI): 13.9 ± 5.6 and 6.4 ± 3.0 mol photons m–2 day–1 at Kusu and Hantu, respectively], and light differences between reefs were driven by a 2-fold increase in turbidity at Hantu (typically 10–50 mg l–1), despite its similar distance offshore. Light attenuation was rapid (KdPAR: 0.49–0.57 m–1) resulting in a shallow euphotic depth of <11 m, and daily fluctuations of up to 8 m. Remote sensing indicates a regional west-to-east gradient in light availability and turbidity across southern Singapore attributed to spatial variability in suspended sediment, chlorophyll-a and colored dissolved organic matter. Net sediment accumulation rates were ∼5% of gross rates on reefs (9.8–22.9 mg cm–2 day–1) due to the resuspension of sediment by tidal currents, which contribute to the ecological stability of reef crest coral communities. Lower current velocities on the reef slope deposit ∼4 kg m2 more silt annually, and result in high soft-sediment benthic cover. Our findings confirm that vertical reef compression is driven from the bottom-up, as the photic zone contracts and fine silt accumulates at depth, reducing available habitat for coral growth. Assuming no further declines in water quality, future sea level rise could decrease the depth distribution of these turbid reefs by a further 8–12%. This highlights the vulnerability of deeper coral communities on turbid reefs to the combined effects of both local anthropogenic inputs and climate-related impacts.
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