Les Working Papers du CEPED constituent des documents de travail portant sur des recherches menées par des chercheurs du CEPED ou associés. Rédigés pour une diffusion rapide, ces papiers n'ont pas été formellement relus et édités. Certaines versions de ces documents de travail peuvent être soumises à une revue à comité de lecture. Les droits d'auteur sont détenus par les auteurs. The sex ratio transition in Asia Christophe Z. Guilmoto * CEPED AbstractThe sex ratio transition in Asia The paper adopts a comparative perspective to review the recent increase in sex ratio at birth across Asia. We first describe and compare the most recent birth statistics in Asia in order to identify commonalities in the gradual demographic masculinization observed from Armenia to South Korea. This comparison provides the basis for identifying the specific transitional patterns of current trends in birth masculinity. The recent rise in sex ratio at birth is then interpreted in a socio-historical framework borrowed from fertility decline and based on three preconditions: access to sex selection technology, gender preference, and pressure from low fertility. On a broader plane, the process of growing gender imbalances closely resembles that of a tragedy of the commons and this paper indicates the factors that appear most likely to trigger a turnaround in this transitional cycle and to facilitate a return to normal in the future.Keywords: Asia, China, India, Gender, sex ratio at birth. Résumé La transition du sex ratio en AsieCet article adopte un point de vue comparatif pour examiner l'augmentation récente du sex ratio à la naissance en Asie. En premier lieu, nous décrivons et comparons les plus récentes statistiques sur la masculinité des naissances afin d'identifier les traits communs au processus de masculinisation démographique graduelle observé d'Arménie à la Corée du Sud. Cette comparaison permet de mettre en lumière le caractère transitionnel des tendances actuelles de la masculinité des naissances. Cet accroissement récent est ensuite interprété dans un cadre socio-historique emprunté à la baisse de la fécondité et fondé sur trois pré-conditions : l'accès aux technologies de sélection sexuelle, les préférences de genre et la pression exercée par la faible fécondité. D'un point de vue plus large, l'accroissement des déséquilibres sexuels ressemble étroitement à une tragédie des communs et l'article indique les facteurs qui ont le plus chance de provoquer un retournement de tendance et un retour à la normale dans le futur.

Sex‐based discrimination has resulted in severe demographic imbalances between males and females, culminating in a large number of “missing women” in several countries around the world. We provide new estimates and projections of the number of missing females and of the roles played by prenatal and postnatal factors in this imbalance. We estimate time series of the number of missing females, the number of excess female deaths, and the number of missing female births for the world and selected countries. Estimates are provided for 1970–2010 and projections are made from 2010 to 2050. We show that the estimates of these different indicators are consistent with one another and account for the dynamics of the population of missing females over time. We conclude that the number of missing females has steadily risen in the past decades, reaching 126 million in 2010, and the number is expected to peak at 150 million in 2035. Excess mortality was the dominant cause of missing females in the past, and this is expected to remain the case in future decades in spite of the recent rise of prenatal sex selection. The annual number of newly missing females reached 3.4 million in 2010 and is expected to remain above 3 million every year until 2050.

I examine the potential impact of the anticipated future marriage squeeze on nuptiality patterns in China and India during the twenty-first century. I use population projections from 2005 to 2100 based on three different scenarios for the sex ratio at birth (SRB). To counteract the limitations of cross-sectional methods commonly used to assess the severity of marriage squeezes, I use a two-sex cohort-based procedure to simulate marriage patterns over the twenty-first century based on the female dominance model. I also examine two more-flexible marriage functions to illustrate the potential impact of changes in marriage schedules as a response to the marriage squeeze. Longitudinal indicators of marriage squeeze indicate that the number of prospective grooms in both countries will exceed that of prospective brides by more 50% for three decades in the most favorable scenario. Rates of male bachelorhood will not peak before 2050, and the squeeze conditions will be felt several decades thereafter, even among cohorts unaffected by adverse SRB. If the SRB is allowed to return to normalcy by 2020, the proportion of men unmarried at age 50 is expected to rise to 15% in China by 2055 and to 10% in India by 2065. India suffers from the additional impact of a delayed fertility transition on its age structures.

This article examines the recent rise in the sex ratio at birth in Vietnam and relates its emergence to kinship systems and ethnic composition using 2009 census micro‐data. Presentation of the main socioeconomic and ethnic differentials in birth masculinity is followed by a review of the three intermediate factors leading to increases in the sex ratio at birth: prenatal technology, declining fertility, and gender bias. An indirect measurement of fertility behavior is used to demonstrate the close association between levels of the sex ratio at birth and the intensity of son preference. Data on household composition indicate that Vietnam is characterized by the co‐existence of kinship patterns typical of East and Southeast Asia. Son preference in Vietnam is found to be related to the prevalence of more traditional patrilineal systems. The article concludes by considering the implications of the cultural dimensions of prenatal sex selection for policy responses and for the likely future change in the sex ratio at birth.

The growing number of series on COVID-19 deaths classified by age and sex, released by national health authorities, has allowed us to compute age and sex patterns of its mortality, based on 183,619 deaths from Western Europe and the USA. We highlight the specific age schedule of COVID-19 mortality and its pronounced excess male mortality and we then apply these COVID-19 death rates to world populations, in 2020. Our results underscore that considerable variations exist between world regions, as concerns the potential impact of COVID-19 mortality, because of their demographic structures. When compared to younger countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, the vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality is shown to be 17 times higher in several industrialized countries of East Asia and Europe. There is a high correlation (r2= .44) between demographic vulnerability to COVID-19 mortality and current COVID-19 death rates.

IntroductionSince the 1980s, sex ratio at birth (male births per 100 female births) has increased in many Asian countries as a result of selective abortions, but to date there has been no such evidence for Viet Nam. Our aim in this paper is to ascertain the situation with respect to sex ratio at birth in Viet Nam over the past five years.Materials and MethodsOriginal data were obtained from sample population surveys in Viet Nam recording annual birth rates since 2000 of about 450,000 women, as well as from two successive birth surveys conducted for the first time in 2007 (1.1 million births). The annual population surveys include specific information on birth history and mothers' characteristics to be used for the analysis of trends and differentials in sex ratio at birth.Results and DiscussionBirth history statistics indicate that the SRB in Viet Nam has recorded a steady growth since 2001. Starting from a level probably close to the biological standard of 105, the SRB reached 108 in 2005 and 112 in 2006, a value significantly above the normal level. An independent confirmation of these results comes from the surveys of births in health facilities which yielded a SRB of 110 in 2006–07. High SRB is linked to various factors such as access to modern health care, number of prenatal visits, level of higher education and employment status, young age, province of residence and prenatal sex determination. These results suggest that prenatal sex determination followed by selective abortion has recently become more common in Viet Nam. This recent trend is a consequence of various factors such as preference for sons, declining fertility, easy access to abortion, economic development as well as the increased availability of ultrasonography facilities.

The article explores the dynamics of Indian fertility at the district level using a child-woman index developed from the four Indian censuses, 1961 to 1991. It employs statistical and geostatistical techniques to assess fertility change across districts and periods. Fertility decline is evident in every region, but sizable regional differentials exist. A cluster analysis of fertility profiles indicates that a clear spatial pattern of fertility in India has emerged and the pattern intensified because of the process of fertility decline. Copyright 2001 by The Population Council, Inc..

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