In this article, we test an alternative approach to creating a counterfactual basis for estimating individual and average treatment effects. Instead of using control/comparison groups or before-measures, the so-called Counterfactual as Self-Estimated by Program Participants (CSEPP) relies on program participants' self-estimations of their own counterfactual at the end of an intervention. In an empirical study, a randomized experiment was employed as a benchmark to examine the performance of the CSEPP. The results suggest that the approach is capable of delivering comparatively reliable estimates of short-and midterm effects on behavioral intentions and attitudes. With regard to the estimation of treatment effects on self-reported behavior, however, the findings are more ambiguous.

This article proposes an innovative approach to estimating the counterfactual without the necessity of generating information from either a control group or a before-measure. Building on the idea that program participants are capable of estimating the hypothetical state they would be in had they not participated, the basics of the Roy-Rubin model are used to describe how the ''counterfactual self-estimation of program participants'' (CSEPP) creates a basis for estimating individual and average treatment effects. The problems confronting the approach are discussed as are the preconditions that need to be fulfilled for its use to be recommendable. Moreover, the article reports on the design and results of an empirical study conducted in order to gain first insights into the practicability and viability of the CSEPP. Finally, because there are some ambiguous findings, the strengths and weaknesses of the approach and the implications of the results for further research are discussed.

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