The Counterfactual Self-Estimation of Program Participants

Abstract

This article proposes an innovative approach to estimating the counterfactual without the necessity of generating information from either a control group or a before-measure. Building on the idea that program participants are capable of estimating the hypothetical state they would be in had they not participated, the basics of the Roy-Rubin model are used to describe how the ''counterfactual self-estimation of program participants'' (CSEPP) creates a basis for estimating individual and average treatment effects. The problems confronting the approach are discussed as are the preconditions that need to be fulfilled for its use to be recommendable. Moreover, the article reports on the design and results of an empirical study conducted in order to gain first insights into the practicability and viability of the CSEPP. Finally, because there are some ambiguous findings, the strengths and weaknesses of the approach and the implications of the results for further research are discussed.

The impact of social care services on carers’ quality of life

“…The counterfactual self-estimation method developed for the ASCOT to measure the impact of social care services on services users' care-related quality of life (Netten et al, 2012) has been adapted for use with family and friend carers (Rand et al, 2012). The ASCOT counterfactual self-estimation method was developed independently from a similar method for the evaluation of the impact of a climate educational programme on individual's attitudes and behaviour (Mueller and Gaus, 2015;Mueller et al, 2014). These methods share a conceptual basis in that they seek to estimate the impact of an intervention by using respondents' own self-estimation of the counter-factual situation (i.e.…”

“…Second, a potential issue with counterfactual self-estimation is bias, i.e. over-or underestimation of the counterfactual by self-estimation (Malley et al, 2019;Mueller & Gaus, 2015;Mueller et al, 2014).…”

The social impact of advice during disability welfare reform: from social return on investment to evidencing public value through realism and complexity

“…Establish impact through calculating attribution, deadweight and displacement and drop-off. To establish attribution, a self-estimated counterfactual (Mueller, Gaus, and Rech 2014) and a deadweight figure in each case we analysed: each client's situation and their own actions to address their problems; their perspective of what caused outcomes; the role of other organizations and people; what may have happened if they hadn't gone to the advice service; advice records detailing advice given. Clients situations were followed for up to 18 months where appropriate, to account for issues that took substantial time to resolve.…”

Agriculture Sustainability, Inclusive Growth, and Development Assistance: Insights from Tanzania

“…This means that rural women and men who were not involved with the FtF projects-TAPP and NAFAKA-were not interviewed by way of comparison or control. Instead comparisons, where made, are based on the counterfactual self-estimation principle, which recognizes that project participants are capable of making hypothetical judgments about the state they would be in had they not participated in the intervention (Mueller, Gaus & Rech, 2014;. Also, no attempt was made to create a statistically representative sample of a particular population subset; instead a deliberate effort was made within the qualitative approach to interview a broad cross-section of stakeholders, and particularly women farmers.…”