Abstract. The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) is a global model developed to simulate historical climate change and variability, to make centennial-scale projections of future climate, and to produce initialized seasonal and decadal predictions. This paper describes the model components and their coupling, as well as various aspects of model development, including tuning, optimization, and a reproducibility strategy. We also document the stability of the model using a long control simulation, quantify the model's ability to reproduce large-scale features of the historical climate, and evaluate the response of the model to external forcing. CanESM5 is comprised of three-dimensional atmosphere (T63 spectral resolution equivalent roughly to 2.8∘) and ocean (nominally 1∘) general circulation models, a sea-ice model, a land surface scheme, and explicit land and ocean carbon cycle models. The model features relatively coarse resolution and high throughput, which facilitates the production of large ensembles. CanESM5 has a notably higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (5.6 K) than its predecessor, CanESM2 (3.7 K), which we briefly discuss, along with simulated changes over the historical period. CanESM5 simulations contribute to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and will be employed for climate science and service applications in Canada.
Abstract. The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5) is a global model developed to simulate historical climate change and variability, to make centennial scale projections of future climate, and to produce initialized seasonal and decadal predictions. This paper describes the model components and their coupling, as well as various aspects of model development, including tuning, optimization and a reproducibility strategy. We also document the stability of the model using a long control simulation, quantify the model's ability to reproduce large scale features of the historical climate, and evaluate the response of the model to external forcing. CanESM5 is comprised of three dimensional atmosphere (T63 spectral resolution/2.8°) and ocean (nominally 1°) general circulation models, a sea ice model, a land surface scheme, and explicit land and ocean carbon cycle models. The model features relatively coarse resolution and high throughput, which facilitates the production of large ensembles. CanESM5 has a notably higher equilibrium climate sensitivity (5.7 K) than its predecessor CanESM2 (3.8 K), which we briefly discuss, along with simulated changes over the historical period. CanESM5 simulations are contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and will be employed for climate science and service applications in Canada.
Climate-related disasters in Bolivia are frequent, severe, and manifold and affect large parts of the population, economy, and ecosystems. Potentially amplified through climate change, natural hazards are of growing concern. To better understand these events, homogenized daily observations of temperature (29 stations) and precipitation (68 stations) from 1960 to 2009 were analyzed in this study. The impact of the positive (1) and negative (2) phases of the three climate modes (i) Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), (ii) El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with El Niñ o (EN) and La Niñ a (LN) events, and (iii) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) were assessed. Temperatures were found to be higher during PDO(1), EN, and AAO(1) in the Andes. Total amounts of rainfall, as well as the number of extreme events, were higher during PDO(1), EN, and LN in the lowlands. During austral summer [December-February (DJF)], EN led to drier conditions in the Andes with more variable precipitation. Temperatures increased at a rate of 0.18C per decade, with stronger increases in the Andes and in the dry season. Rainfall totals increased from 1965 to 1984 [12% in DJF and 18% in June-August (JJA)] and decreased afterward (24% in DJF and 210% in JJA), following roughly the pattern of PDO. Trends of climate extremes generally corresponded to trends of climate means. Findings suggest that Bolivia's climate will be warmer and drier than average in the near-term future. Having entered PDO(2) in 2007, droughts and LN-related floods can be expected in the lowlands, while increasing temperatures suggest higher risks of drought in the Andes.
Purpose of Review This review brings together recent research on the structure, characteristics, dynamics, and impacts of extratropical cyclones in the future. It draws on research using idealized models and complex climate simulations, to evaluate what is known and unknown about these future changes. Recent Findings There are interacting processes that contribute to the uncertainties in future extratropical cyclone changes, e.g., changes in the horizontal and vertical structure of the atmosphere and increasing moisture content due to rising temperatures. Summary While precipitation intensity will most likely increase, along with associated increased latent heating, it is unclear to what extent and for which particular climate conditions this will feedback to increase the intensity of the cyclones. Future research could focus on bridging the gap between idealized models and complex climate models, as well as better understanding of the regional impacts of future changes in extratropical cyclones. Keywords Extratropical cyclones. Climate change. Windstorms. Idealized model. CMIP models This article is part of the Topical Collection on Mid-latitude Processes and Climate Change
Abstract. Recent reports by the Global Carbon Project highlight large uncertainties around land surface processes such as land use change, strength of CO2 fertilization, nutrient limitation and supply, and response to variability in climate. Process-based land surface models are well suited to address these complex and emerging global change problems but will require extensive development and evaluation. The coupled Canadian Land Surface Scheme and Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (CLASS-CTEM) framework has been under continuous development by Environment and Climate Change Canada since 1987. As the open-source model of code development has revolutionized the software industry, scientific software is experiencing a similar evolution. Given the scale of the challenge facing land surface modellers, and the benefits of open-source, or community model, development, we have transitioned CLASS-CTEM from an internally developed model to an open-source community model, which we call the Canadian Land Surface Scheme including Biogeochemical Cycles (CLASSIC) v.1.0. CLASSIC contains many technical features specifically designed to encourage community use including software containerization for serial and parallel simulations, extensive benchmarking software and data (Automated Model Benchmarking; AMBER), self-documenting code, community standard formats for model inputs and outputs, amongst others. Here, we evaluate and benchmark CLASSIC against 31 FLUXNET sites where the model has been tailored to the site-level conditions and driven with observed meteorology. Future versions of CLASSIC will be developed using AMBER and these initial benchmark results to evaluate model performance over time. CLASSIC remains under active development and the code, site-level benchmarking data, software container, and AMBER are freely available for community use.
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