The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones

Catto, Jennifer L.; Ackerley, Duncan; Booth, James F.; Champion, Adrian J.; Colle, Brian A.; Pfahl, Stephan; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Quinting, Julian; Seiler, Christian

doi:10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4

Cited by 104 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 168 publications

(208 reference statements)

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“…One such aspect is surface windiness associated with intense extratropical cyclones. The mean response of extratropical cyclones to climate change is reviewed in reference [107], within this same section of Current Climate Change Reports. Here, the focus is instead placed on discussing the uncertainty in the response, using future changes in European windiness as a case study.…”

Section: Impacts On Windiness: the European Casementioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Climate Impacts of Future Changes in the Mid–Latitude Atmospheric Circulation: a Storyline View

Zappa

2019

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Purpose of Review Atmospheric circulation exerts a strong control on regional climate and extremes. However, projections of future circulation change remain uncertain, thus affecting the assessment of regional climate change. The purpose of this review is to describe some key cases where regional precipitation and windiness strongly depend on the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation response to warming, and summarise this into alternative plausible storylines of regional climate change. Recent Findings Recent research has enabled to better quantify the importance of dynamical aspects of climate change in shaping regional climate. The cold season precipitation response in Mediterranean-like regions is identified as one of the most susceptible impact-relevant aspects of regional climate driven by mid-latitude circulation changes. A circulation-forced drying might already be emerging in the actual Mediterranean, Chile and southwestern Australia. Increasing evidence indicates that distinct regional changes in atmospheric circulation and European windiness might unfold depending on the interplay of different climate drivers, such as surface warming patterns, sea ice loss and stratospheric changes. Summary The multi-model mean circulation response to warming tends to show washed-out signals due to the lack of robustness in the model projections, with implications for regional changes. To better communicate the information contained within these projections, it is useful to discuss regional climate change conditionally on alternative plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation change. As progress continues in understanding the factors driving the response of circulation to global warming, developing such storylines will provide end-to-end and physically self-consistent descriptions of plausible future unfoldings of regional climate change.

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Section: Impacts On Windiness: the European Casementioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Climate Impacts of Future Changes in the Mid–Latitude Atmospheric Circulation: a Storyline View

Zappa

2019

Curr Clim Change Rep

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“…The day-to-day weather conditions in the midlatitudes are strongly affected by the passage of extratropical cyclones, which are typically associated with precipitation, strong winds and changes in temperature and cloudiness. Cyclones also play a major role in the water cycle and the redistribution of momentum and energy in the climate system (Hoskins and Valdez, 1990;Chang et al, 2002). The assessment of cyclone activity, notably to analyse their paths, characteristics and impacts, is thus key to determine the day-to-day weather conditions, the regional mean climate and its variability on multiple timescales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum and implications for proxy interpretation

Pinto

Ludwig

2020

Clim. Past

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Abstract. Extratropical cyclones are a dominant feature of the midlatitudes, as their passage is associated with strong winds, precipitation and temperature changes. The statistics and characteristics of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic region exhibit some fundamental differences between pre-industrial (PI) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate conditions. Here, the statistics are analysed based on results of a tracking algorithm applied to global PI and LGM climate simulations. During the LGM, both the number and the intensity of detected cyclones were higher compared to PI. In particular, increased cyclone track activity is detected close to the Laurentide ice sheet and over central Europe. To determine changes in cyclone characteristics, the top 30 extreme storm events for PI and LGM have been simulated with a regional climate model and high resolution (12.5 km grid spacing) over the eastern North Atlantic and western Europe. Results show that LGM extreme cyclones were characterised by weaker precipitation, enhanced frontal temperature gradients and stronger wind speeds than PI analogues. These results are in line with the view of a colder and drier Europe, characterised by little vegetation and affected by frequent dust storms, leading to reallocation and build-up of thick loess deposits in Europe.

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“…Furthermore, how winter windstorm activity and intensity in mid-latitude Europe will change in a future warmer climate is still uncertain (Catto et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland

Welker¹,

Röösli²,

Bresch³

2020

Preprint

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Abstract. With access to claims, insurers have a long tradition of being knowledge leaders on damages caused by e.g. windstorms. However, new opportunities have arisen to better assess the risks of winter windstorms in Europe through the availability of historic footprints provided by the Windstorm Information Service (Copernicus WISC). In this study, we compare how modelling of building damages complements claims-based risk assessment. We describe and use two windstorm risk models: the insurer's proprietary model and the open source CLIMADA platform. Both use the historic WISC dataset and a purposefully-built, probabilistic hazard event set of winter windstorms across Europe to model building damages in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. These approaches project a considerably lower estimate for the annual average damage (CHF 1.4 million), compared to claims (CHF 2.3 million), which originates mainly from a different assessment of the return period of the most damaging historic event Lothar/Martin. Additionally, the probabilistic modelling approach allows assessing rare events, such as a 250-year return period windstorm causing CHF 75 million damages. Our study emphasises the importance of complementing a claims-based perspective with a probabilistic risk modelling approach to better understand windstorm risks. The presented open source model provides a straightforward entry point for small insurance companies.

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The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones

Cited by 104 publications

References 168 publications

Regional Climate Impacts of Future Changes in the Mid–Latitude Atmospheric Circulation: a Storyline View

Regional Climate Impacts of Future Changes in the Mid–Latitude Atmospheric Circulation: a Storyline View

Extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and western Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum and implications for proxy interpretation

Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland

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