Climate Variability and Trends in Bolivia

Abstract

Climate-related disasters in Bolivia are frequent, severe, and manifold and affect large parts of the population, economy, and ecosystems. Potentially amplified through climate change, natural hazards are of growing concern. To better understand these events, homogenized daily observations of temperature (29 stations) and precipitation (68 stations) from 1960 to 2009 were analyzed in this study. The impact of the positive (1) and negative (2) phases of the three climate modes (i) Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), (ii) El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with El Niñ o (EN) and La Niñ a (LN) events, and (iii) Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) were assessed. Temperatures were found to be higher during PDO(1), EN, and AAO(1) in the Andes. Total amounts of rainfall, as well as the number of extreme events, were higher during PDO(1), EN, and LN in the lowlands. During austral summer [December-February (DJF)], EN led to drier conditions in the Andes with more variable precipitation. Temperatures increased at a rate of 0.18C per decade, with stronger increases in the Andes and in the dry season. Rainfall totals increased from 1965 to 1984 [12% in DJF and 18% in June-August (JJA)] and decreased afterward (24% in DJF and 210% in JJA), following roughly the pattern of PDO. Trends of climate extremes generally corresponded to trends of climate means. Findings suggest that Bolivia's climate will be warmer and drier than average in the near-term future. Having entered PDO(2) in 2007, droughts and LN-related floods can be expected in the lowlands, while increasing temperatures suggest higher risks of drought in the Andes.

Changes in carbon storage with land management promoted by payment for ecosystem services

“…There is, however, a trend toward slightly drier conditions on the Western cordillera of the Andes in southern Peru and western Bolivia (Vuille et al 2003). Increased NDVI across the study area is more likely due to a temperature increase of 0.9-0.15 ∘ C per decade since 1939 (Vuille & Bradley 2000;Vuille et al 2003Vuille et al , 2015Bradley et al 2006;Thibeault et al 2010;Seiler et al 2013). High-elevation biomes are particularly sensitive to increased temperature, with species or whole vegetation zones expected to migrate to higher elevations (Benniston 2003) provided suitable soils are available (Lee et al 2005).…”

“…Reasons for the increase in greenness observed in the study area include climate change and reduced land use pressure (Olsson et al 2005;Bai et al 2008). Although the frequency of extreme precipitation events is increasing, there has been no significant increase or seasonal shift in precipitation that would account for the increase in greenness in the eastern cordillera of the Andes (Thibeault et al 2010;Seiler et al 2013;Boers et al 2014). There is, however, a trend toward slightly drier conditions on the Western cordillera of the Andes in southern Peru and western Bolivia (Vuille et al 2003).…”

Glacier Ablation and Water Resources in Tropical Andes: The Condoriri Glacier

“…I t w as f ound that temperature h as a positive t rend of 0.12 °C per de cade. O ther st udies estimated si milar t rends b etween 0 .1°C p er d ecade and 0.15°C p er d ecade 18) . However, due t o g lobal warming it i s expected that the temperature trend will in crease.…”

Análisis De Las Temperaturas Medias Y Sus Extremos a Partir De Diferentes Índices Durante El Período 1966-2015 en El Norte Grande Chileno

“…Otros estudios regionales también documentan tendencias de calentamiento significativas en el mismo período en los Andes peruanos (Bradley et al 2009;Lavado Casimiro et al 2013;Salzmann et al 2013), en los de Bolivia (Thibeault et al 2010;Seiler et al 2013) …”