Abstract. The aim of this paper is to provide the community with a comprehensive overview of the studies of glaciers in the tropical Andes conducted in recent decades leading to the current status of the glaciers in the context of climate change. In terms of changes in surface area and length, we show that the glacier retreat in the tropical Andes over the last three decades is unprecedented since the maximum extension of the Little Ice Age (LIA, mid-17th-early 18th century). In terms of changes in mass balance, although there have been some sporadic gains on several glaciers, we show that the trend has been quite negative over the past 50 yr, with a mean mass balance deficit for glaciers in the tropical Andes that is slightly more negative than the one computed on a global scale. A break point in the trend appeared in the late 1970s with mean annual mass balance per year decreasing from −0.2 m w.e. in the period 1964-1975 to −0.76 m w.e. in the period 1976-2010. In addition, even if glaciers are currently retreating everywhere in the tropical Andes, it should be noted that this is much more pronounced on small glaciers at low altitudes that do not have a permanent accumulation zone, and which could disappear in the coming years/decades. Monthly mass balance measurements performed in Bolivia, Ecuador and Colombia show that variability of the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean is the main factor governing variability of the mass balance at the decadal timescale. Precipitation did not display a significant trend in the tropical Andes in the 20th century, and consequently cannot explain the glacier recession.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A. Rabatel et al.: Current state of glaciers in the tropical AndesOn the other hand, temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.10 • C decade −1 in the last 70 yr. The higher frequency of El Niño events and changes in its spatial and temporal occurrence since the late 1970s together with a warming troposphere over the tropical Andes may thus explain much of the recent dramatic shrinkage of glaciers in this part of the world.

Abstract. Ice volume estimates are crucial for assessing water reserves stored in glaciers. Due to its large glacier coverage, such estimates are of particular interest for the Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) region. In this study, different existing methodologies are used to estimate the ice reserves: three area-volume relations, one slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models are applied to a recent, detailed, and complete glacier inventory of the HK region, spanning over the period [2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010] and revealing an ice coverage of 40 775 km 2 . An uncertainty and sensitivity assessment is performed to investigate the influence of the observed glacier area and important model parameters on the resulting total ice volume. Results of the two ice-thickness distribution models are validated with local icethickness measurements at six glaciers. The resulting ice volumes for the entire HK region range from 2955 to 4737 km 3 , depending on the approach. This range is lower than most previous estimates. Results from the ice thickness distribution models and the slope-dependent thickness estimations agree well with measured local ice thicknesses. However, total volume estimates from area-related relations are larger than those from other approaches. The study provides evidence on the significant effect of the selected method on results and underlines the importance of a careful and critical evaluation.

Abstract. Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

Abstract. Recent warming has had enormous impacts on glaciers and high-mountain environments. Hazards have changed or new ones have emerged, including those from glacier lakes that form as glaciers retreat. The Andes of Peru have repeatedly been severely impacted by glacier lake outburst floods in the past. An important recent event occurred in the Cordillera Blanca in 2010 when an ice avalanche impacted a glacier lake and triggered an outburst flood that affected the downstream communities and city of Carhuaz. In this study we evaluate how such complex cascades of mass movement processes can be simulated coupling different physically-based numerical models. We furthermore develop an approach that allows us to elaborate corresponding hazard maps according to existing guidelines for debris flows and based on modelling results and field work.

Abstract. This study describes an investigation of channelbed entrainment of sediment by debris flows. An entrainment model, developed using field data from debris flows at the Illgraben catchment, Switzerland, was incorporated into the existing RAMMS debris-flow model, which solves the 2-D shallow-water equations for granular flows. In the entrainment model, an empirical relationship between maximum shear stress and measured erosion is used to determine the maximum potential erosion depth. Additionally, the average rate of erosion, measured at the same field site, is used to constrain the erosion rate. The model predicts plausible erosion values in comparison with field data from highly erosive debris flow events at the Spreitgraben torrent channel, Switzerland in 2010, without any adjustment to the coefficients in the entrainment model. We find that by including bulking due to entrainment (e.g., by channel erosion) in runout models a more realistic flow pattern is produced than in simulations where entrainment is not included. In detail, simulations without entrainment show more lateral outflow from the channel where it has not been observed in the field. Therefore the entrainment model may be especially useful for practical applications such as hazard analysis and mapping, as well as scientific case studies of erosive debris flows.

Abstract. Rapid mass movements (RMM) pose a substantial risk to people and infrastructure. Reliable and cost-efficient measures have to be taken to reduce this risk. One of these measures includes establishing and advancing the state of practice in the application of early warning systems (EWSs). EWSs have been developed during the past decades and are rapidly increasing. In this paper, we focus on the technical part of EWSs, i.e., the prediction and timely recognition of imminent hazards, as well as on monitoring slopes at risk and released mass movements. Recent innovations in assessing spatial precipitation, monitoring and precursors of the triggering and deformation of RMM offer new opportunities for next-generation EWSs. However, technical advancement can only be transferred into more reliable, operational EWSs with an adequate well-instructed dedicated staff. To this end, an intense dialog between scientists, engineers and those in charge of warning, as well as further experience with new comprehensive prototype systems jointly operated by scientists and practitioners, will be essential.

Abstract. The detachment of large parts of low-angle mountain glaciers resulting in massive ice–rock avalanches have so far been believed to be a unique type of event, made known to the global scientific community first for the 2002 Kolka Glacier detachment, Caucasus Mountains, and then for the 2016 collapses of two glaciers in the Aru range, Tibet. Since 2016, several so-far unrecognized low-angle glacier detachments have been recognized and described, and new ones have occurred. In the current contribution, we compile, compare, and discuss 20 actual or suspected large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers at 10 different sites in the Caucasus, the Pamirs, Tibet, Altai, the North American Cordillera, and the Southern Andes. Many of the detachments reached volumes in the order of 10–100 million m3. The similarities and differences between the presented cases indicate that glacier detachments often involve a coincidental combination of factors related to the lowering of basal friction, high or increasing driving stresses, concentration of shear stress, or low resistance to exceed stability thresholds. Particularly soft glacier beds seem to be a common condition among the observed events as they offer smooth contact areas between the glacier and the underlying substrate and are prone to till-strength weakening and eventually basal failure under high pore-water pressure. Partially or fully thawed glacier bed conditions and the presence of liquid water could thus play an important role in the detachments. Surface slopes of the detached glaciers range between around 10∘ and 20∘. This may be low enough to enable the development of thick and thus large-volume glaciers while also being steep enough to allow critical driving stresses to build up. We construct a simple slab model to estimate ranges of glacier slope and width above which a glacier may be able to detach when extensively losing basal resistance. From this model we estimate that all the detachments described in this study occurred due to a basal shear stress reduction of more than 50 %. Most of the ice–rock avalanches resulting from the detachments in this study have a particularly low angle of reach, down to around 5∘, likely due to their high ice content and connected liquefaction potential, the availability of soft basal slurries, and large amounts of basal water, as well as the smooth topographic setting typical for glacial valleys. Low-angle glacier detachments combine elements and likely also physical processes of glacier surges and ice break-offs from steep glaciers. The surge-like temporal evolution ahead of several detachments and their geographic proximity to other surge-type glaciers indicate the glacier detachments investigated can be interpreted as endmembers of the continuum of surge-like glacier instabilities. Though rare, glacier detachments appear to be more frequent than commonly thought and disclose, despite local differences in conditions and precursory evolutions, the fundamental and critical potential of low-angle soft glacier beds to fail catastrophically.

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