Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

Harrison, Stephan; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Huggel, Christian; Reynolds, John V.; Shugar, Dan H.; Betts, Richard; Emmer, Adam; Glasser, Neil F.; Haritashya, U. K.; Klimeš, Jan; Reinhardt, Liam; Schaub, Yvonne; Wilyshire, Andy; Regmi, Dhananjay; Vilímek, Vít

doi:10.5194/tc-2017-203

Cited by 23 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Forty per cent of these (97 lakes) were classified to have a high outburst potential. The increase in number and extent of glacier lakes does not appear to be accompanied by an increase in glacial floods (Harrison et al 2018). Conversely, some studies have suggested a global decline in glacier floods since the 1990s, possibly associated on the one side with delayed response of glacier flood activities with glacier retreat (Harrison et al 2018), and on the other side with the capacity of successive floods to give rise to river channels, which are better suited to accommodate subsequent flood events (Carrivick and Tweed 2016).…”

Section: Runoff Trends and Water-related Hazards In Headwater Catchmentsmentioning

confidence: 98%

The status and role of the alpine cryosphere in Central Asia

et al. 2019

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• The alpine cryosphere, including snow, glaciers and permafrost, is critical to water management in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) and larger Central Asia (CA) under the changing climate, as it stores large amounts of water in its solid forms. Most cryospheric components in the Aral Sea Basin are close to melting point, and hence very vulnerable to a slight increase in air temperature with significant consequences to long-term water availability and to water resources variability and extremes. The alpine cryosphere 101 • Current knowledge about different components of the cryosphere and their connection to climate in the Basin and in the entire Central Asia region varies. While it is advanced in the topics of snow and glaciers, knowledge on permafrost is rather limited. • Observed trends in runoff point in the direction of increasing water availability in July and August at least until mid-century and increasing possibility for water storage in reservoirs and aquifers. However, eventually this will change as glaciers waste away. Future runoff may change considerably after mid-century and start to decline if not compensated by increasing precipitation. • Cryosphere monitoring systems are the basis for sound estimates of water availability and water-related hazards associated with snow, glaciers and permafrost. They require a well-distributed observational network for all cryospheric variables. Such systems need to be re-established in the Basin after the breakup of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. This process is slowly emerging in the region. Collaboration between local operational hydro-meteorological services and the academic sector, and with international research networks, may improve the observational capabilities in high-mountain regions of CA in general and in the ASB in particular.

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Section: Runoff Trends and Water-related Hazards In Headwater Catchmentsmentioning

confidence: 98%

The status and role of the alpine cryosphere in Central Asia

et al. 2019

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“…This retreat has not been observed in all studied valleys but glacial moraines dated to around 5 ka are reported in the Langtang valley in the upstream Trishuli catchment and in the Macha Khola, Manaslu massif ( 10 Be ages; Abramowski et al 2003), in the Khumbu Himal (Everest region) with the Thuklha stage ( 10 Be ages; Finkel et al, 2003), as well as 3 He and 10 Be ages derived by Gayer et al (2006) for moraines in the upper Mailun valley, Trishuli catchment suggesting a regional glacial response to aridification (Figure 6). Although the relation between GLOF frequency and ongoing climate change remains unclear (Harrison et al, 2018;Veh et al, 2019), past large phases of glacier retreat have been suggested to increase GLOF frequency (e.g. Walder and Costa, 1996;Clague and Evans, 2000;Wohl, 2013).…”

Section: Triggers Of Holocene Catastrophic Lofsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Timing of exotic, far-travelled boulder emplacement and paleo-outburst flooding in the central Himalaya

Huber¹,

Lupker²,

Gallen³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Large boulders, ca. 10 m in diameter or more, commonly linger Himalayan river channels. In many cases, their lithology is only compatible with source areas located > 10 km upstream suggesting long transport distances. The mechanisms and timing of exotic boulder emplacement are poorly constrained, but their presence hints at processes that are significant for landscape evolution and geohazard assessments in mountainous regions. We surveyed river reaches of the Trishuli and Sunkoshi, two trans-Himalayan rivers in central Nepal to improve understanding of the processes responsible for exotic boulder transport and the timing of emplacement. Boulder size and channel hydraulic geometry were used to constrain paleo-discharges and boulder emplacement ages were determined using cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating. Modelled discharges required for boulder transport, of ca. 103 to 105 m3/s, exceed typical monsoonal floods in these river reaches. Exposure ages range between ca. 1.5 and 13.5 kyrs BP with clustering of ages around 4.5–5 kyrs BP in both studied valleys. This later period is coeval with a broader weakening of the Indian summer monsoon and glacial retreat after the Early Holocene Climatic Optimum (EHCO), suggesting Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) as a possible cause for boulder transport. We, therefore, propose that these exceptional events are climate-driven, but counter-intuitively occur in the wake of transitions to drier and warmer climates leading to glacier retreat rather than during wetter periods. Furthermore, the old ages and prolonged preservation of these large boulders in or near the active channels shows that these infrequent events have long-lasting consequences on valley bottoms and channel morphology. Overall this study sheds light on the possible coupling between large-infrequent events and bedrock incision patterns in Himalayan rivers with broader implications on landscape evolution.

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“…Since GLOFs have claimed thousands of lives and have caused considerable material damage in the past (Carrivick and Tweed, 2016), and further GLOFs are expected in the future, reflecting the trend of retreating glaciers Harrison et al, 2017), hazard and risk assessment represents another highly challenging task and a recurrent topic among GLOF research items (see also Sect. 3.3).…”

Section: Challenges Ahead and Research Directionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979–2016)

Emmer

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) -specific low-frequency, high-magnitude floods originating in glacial lakes, including jökulhlaups -is well justified in the context of glacier ice loss and glacial lake evolution in glacierized areas all over the world. Increasing GLOF research activities, which are documented by the increasing number of published research items, have been observed in the past few decades; however, comprehensive insight into the GLOF research community, its global bibliometrics, geographies and trends in research is missing. To fill this gap, a set of 892 GLOF research items published in the Web of Science database covering the period 1979-2016 was analysed. General bibliometric characteristics, citations and references were analysed, revealing a certain change in the publishing paradigm over time. Furthermore, the global geographies of research on GLOFs were studied, focusing on (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration. The observed trends and links to the challenges ahead are discussed and placed in a broader context.

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Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

Cited by 23 publications

References 4 publications

The status and role of the alpine cryosphere in Central Asia

The status and role of the alpine cryosphere in Central Asia

Timing of exotic, far-travelled boulder emplacement and paleo-outburst flooding in the central Himalaya

GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979–2016)

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