Mapping hazards from glacier lake outburst floods based on modelling of process cascades at Lake 513, Carhuaz, Peru

Schneider, Daniel; Huggel, Christian; Cochachín, Alejo; Guillén, Sebastián; García, Javier Crespo

doi:10.5194/adgeo-35-145-2014

Cited by 131 publications

(136 citation statements)

References 25 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…There are many examples in the Cordillera Blanca of glacier-related incidents and catastrophes (Lliboutry et al, 1977;Carey, 2010;Portocarrero, 2014). A recent example in the Cordillera Blanca is the 2010 event comprised of a nearly 0.5 million m 3 ice-rock avalanche from the summit of Nevado Hualcán that fell into Lake 513 and generated waves that overtopped the natural rock dam of the lake, producing flood waves and debris flows that reached the town of Carhuaz (Carey et al, 2012;Schneider et al, 2014). Preventive lowering of Lake 513 by artificial tunnels in the 1990s, creating a freeboard of 20 m, helped avoid a major catastrophe that could have killed many people (Reynolds et al, 1998;Carey et al, 2012;Portocarrero, 2014).…”

Section: Climate Impacts In the Cordillera Blanca Of Perumentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Three avalanche volumes are considered in this work, similar to the avalanche scenarios in Schneider et al (2014): 0.5 × 10 6 m 3 (small), 1 × 10 6 m 3 (medium) and 3 × 10 6 m 3 (large). These potential avalanche volumes are consistent with the elevations and slopes of the source area.…”

Section: Avalanche Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Alean (1985) shows examples of slab failure with thicknesses ranging from 19 to 35 m and volumes ranging from 1 to 11 million m 3 . The avalanche above Lake 513 that occurred in 2010 is an example of this type of failure (Schneider et al, 2014). Following these precedents, fracture heights of 25, 35 and 45 m were selected for simulating the small, medium and large avalanches, respectively.…”

Section: Avalanche Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Worni et al (2014) and Westoby et al (2014a) review typical modeling approaches for GLOFs that involve land or ice masses falling into glacial lakes. An approach that separately simulates individual processes predominates, where different processes are connected by using the results of one model as the input for the simulation of the next (e.g., Schneider et al, 2014;Westoby et al, 2014b;Worni et al, 2014). In this paper, this approach was used to produce simulations of each process in the chain from avalanche to inundation, ensuring that the processes were properly depicted.…”

Section: Introduction To Glacial Lake Hazard Process Chain Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One-dimensional models based on the St. Venant equations have been used to model the downstream flood wave propagation of a GLOF, e.g., Klimes et al (2013), who used HEC-RAS (USACE, 2010) to reproduce the 2010 GLOF from Lake 513 in Peru, Cenderelli and Wohl (2003), who used HEC-RAS to reproduce steady-state aspects of GLOFs in the Khumbu region of Nepal, Byers et al (2013), who used HEC-RAS to model a potential GLOF from Lake 464 in the Hongu valley of Nepal, Meon and Schwarz (1993), who used DAMBRK (Fread, 1988) to model a potential GLOF in the Arun valley of Nepal, and Bajracharya et al (2007), who used FLDWAV (NWS, 1998 to model a potential GLOF from Imja Lake in Nepal. Two-dimensional SWE models are often used to model downstream impacts of GLOFs, e.g., Worni et al (2012), who used BASEMENT to model flooding from a GLOF at Shako Cho Lake in India, Schneider et al (2014), who used RAMMS to model debris flow from an overtopping wave at Lake 513 in Peru, Somos-Valenzuela et al (2015), who used FLO2D to model downstream inundation from a potential GLOF at Imja Lake in Nepal, and Mergili et al (2011), who used RAMMS and FLO2D to simulate flooding from Lake Khavraz in Tajikistan. FLO2D (2012) is used here to simulate the downstream inundation.…”

Section: Introduction To Glacial Lake Hazard Process Chain Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

Somos‐Valenzuela

Chisolm

Rivas

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

101

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Abstract. One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on 13 December 1941, killing about 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and preliminary hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5 to 3 × 10 6 m 3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 × 10 3 m 3 s −1 ), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine when simulated with a hydromorphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very little erosion resistance. With the current lake level, all three avalanche events result in inundation in Huaraz due to wave overtopping, and the resulting preliminary hazard map shows a total affected area of 2.01 km 2 , most of which is in the high hazard category. Lowering the lake has the potential to reduce the affected area by up to 35 %, resulting in a smaller portion of the inundated area in the high hazard category.

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Section: Climate Impacts In the Cordillera Blanca Of Perumentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Avalanche Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Avalanche Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introduction To Glacial Lake Hazard Process Chain Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introduction To Glacial Lake Hazard Process Chain Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

Somos‐Valenzuela

Chisolm

Rivas

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

101

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Glacier Lake Outburst Floods

Frey

2017

International Encyclopedia of Geography

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The globally observed retreat of mountain glaciers is often accompanied by the formation of new glacier lakes. Such lakes are attractive new landscape elements, but they also have the potential for catastrophic drainage, so‐called glacier lake outburst floods. In order to assess the hazard potential of glacier lakes, interacting processes in complex and dynamic environments need to be considered and understood. Today, most situations are beyond historical precedence, but experiences from past events and new model approaches offer valuable tools for assessing the hazard potential of glacier lakes. Different possibilities for mitigation and adaptation exist to lower the risk of glacier lake outburst floods.

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How well can we simulate complex hydro‐geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi‐lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

Mergili

Emmer

Juřicová

et al. 2018

Earth Surf Processes Landf

124

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Changing high‐mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini (2012) general two‐phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back‐calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi‐lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision‐making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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Mapping hazards from glacier lake outburst floods based on modelling of process cascades at Lake 513, Carhuaz, Peru

Cited by 131 publications

References 25 publications

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

Glacier Lake Outburst Floods

How well can we simulate complex hydro‐geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi‐lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca, Perú)

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