The paper reports estimates of a reliable fundamental value of the S&P index, standing for a long run target value in Error-Correction Modelling of the dynamics of subsequent returns. The Present Value Model suggests two fundamentals: dividends and a discount rate factor, specified as a risk free rate plus an ex ante risk premium, to capture structural breaks in the expectations. The dates of the shifts are identified by estimating recursively a cointegration relationship. Monte Carlo simulations are used to compute appropriate statistics for stationarity tests. The predictive performance of the Error-Correcting Model is then used to implement winning portfolio-investment strategies.Long Run Target Cointegration Structural Change Asset Management,
Changes in Structural Risk Premiums and Assessment of Stock Markets by Catherine Bruneau, Ch. Duval-Kieffer and Jean-Paul Nicola'i
In this paper, we estimate a fundamental value of the S&P index, which we use as a long-run target in an error-correction modelling of the dynamics of the subsequent returns. The Gordon-Shapiro-based Present Value Model suggests two fundamentals: dividends and a discount rate factor, specified as a risk-free rate plus an ex-ante risk premium, modelled as successive structural breaks at predetermined dates assumed to affect agents' expectations. These breaks are introduced into the cointégration relationship as dummies to ensure the stationarity of the equilibrium deviation variable and the significance of the error correction term. Consequently, the prices observed only move temporarily away from their fundamental value. We use Monte-Carlo simulations to compute the relevant critical values for the stationarity tests. The dates of the breaks over the study period are then related to changes in the stock pricing process.
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