The carambola fruit fly, Bactrocera carambolae, is a tephritid native to Asia that has invaded South America through small-scale trade of fruits from Indonesia. The economic losses associated with biological invasions of other fruit flies around the world and the polyphagous behaviour of B. carambolae have prompted much concern among government agencies and farmers with the potential spread of this pest. Here, ecological niche models were employed to identify suitable environments available to B. carambolae in a global scale and assess the extent of the fruit acreage that may be at risk of attack in Brazil. Overall, 30 MaxEnt models built with different combinations of environmental predictors and settings were evaluated for predicting the potential distribution of the carambola fruit fly. The best model was selected based on threshold-independent and threshold-dependent metrics. Climatically suitable areas were identified in tropical and subtropical regions of Central and South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, west and east coast of India and northern Australia. The suitability map of B. carambola was intersected against maps of fruit acreage in Brazil. The acreage under potential risk of attack varied widely among fruit species, which is expected because the production areas are concentrated in different regions of the country. The production of cashew is the one that is at higher risk, with almost 90% of its acreage within the suitable range of B. carambolae, followed by papaya (78%), tangerine (51%), guava (38%), lemon (30%), orange (29%), mango (24%) and avocado (20%). This study provides an important contribution to the knowledge of the ecology of B. carambolae, and the information generated here can be used by government agencies as a decision-making tool to prevent the carambola fruit fly spread across the world.
Temperature is a key environmental factor affecting the growth, development, survival and reproduction of insects.
Although it is widely known that the relationship between temperature and insect development rate is nonlinear, model‐based studies have been conducted to investigate the global warming impacts on insect voltinism using the degree‐day approach based on a linear model.
In the present study, the wheat armyworm Mythimna sequax (Franclemont) was used as a model organism to test whether voltinism estimated under current and future climate conditions varied among phenological models, locations and climate change scenarios.
In general, voltinism increased in different years and climate change scenarios compared with current climatic conditions. The degree‐day overestimated the number of generations compared with the nonlinear models and also predicted an increase in voltinism in the entire study area as a result of global warming.
Location, phenological model and the interaction between these factors explained 94% of the variance in the estimated voltinism.
The results obtained in the present study reveal that the choice of phenological models affects voltinism predictions and that a nonlinear model can be used to understand the effects of climate change on insect voltinism, especially in regions where temperature will reach the upper threshold of a species more often.
Temperature is considered to be an important abiotic factor influencing insect reproduction. Despite the importance of Plutella xylostella L. (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) as a pest of brassicaceous crops worldwide, the effects of temperature on its reproduction are not well understood. We evaluated the effect of constant temperatures ranging from 10 to 32.5°C on the reproduction of P. xylostella and developed an oviposition model for the species. The model combined temperature-dependent parameters of total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate and age-specific survival. Additionally, we modelled population growth as a function of temperature. The estimated parameters allowed us to discuss the possible consequences of global warming on P. xylostella distribution. Temperature affected the length of pre-oviposition after adult emergence, oviposition period, longevity, total fecundity and egg viability. The model predicted that both daily egg production and length of oviposition period decreased at temperatures below 15°C and above 25°C. Population growth increased linearly with temperature in a range from 10°C to 25°C; however, the model predicted a reduction in population growth at temperatures above 28.6°C. Data suggested that temperature plays a critical role in P. xylostella reproduction, and subtle differences in average temperature could have an impact on its population growth. This is especially important in the context of global climate change, which in turn could alter the distribution and abundance of the pest in some regions of the world.
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