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In this paper we first describe the process of building a questionnaire directed to globally assess formal understanding of conditional probability and the psychological biases related to this concept.We then present results from applying the questionnaire to a sample of 414 students, after they had been taught the topic. Finally, we use Factor Analysis to show that formal knowledge of conditional probability in these students was unrelated to the different biases in conditional probability reasoning. These biases also appeared unrelated in our sample. We conclude with some recommendations about how to improve the teaching of conditional probability.

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La promoción del pensamiento algebraico en alumnos de primaria requiere implementar acciones formativas específicas para los profesores, lo que a su vez implica elaborar instrumentos de evaluación del estado de sus conocimientos didáctico - matemáticos sobre el tema. En este trabajo presentamos resultados del estudio realizado para la construcción de un cuestionario de evaluación de los conocimientos didáctico - matemáticos de estudiantes de magisterio sobre razonamiento algebraico elemental. Describimos las categorías de conocimientos algebraicos tenidas en cuenta (estructuras, funciones y modelización) y las categorías de conocimientos didácticos (facetas epistémica, cognitiva, instruccional y ecológica). Así mismo se describen y analizan las tareas incluidas en el cuestionario informando de la validez de contenido del mismo.

In this paper we describe the development of a questionnaire designed to assess the probability content knowledge of prospective primary school teachers. Three components of mathematical knowledge for teaching and three different meanings of probability (classical, frequentist and subjective) are considered. The questionnaire content is based on curricular guidelines and primary school textbooks in Spain. The items were selected and adapted, after expert judgment, from previous research. The responses of 157 prospective primary school teachers were used to analyze the psychometric properties of the questionnaire and to provide information about various aspects of participants’ probability content knowledge. First published November 2016 at Statistics Education Research Journal Archives