Aim of this study is to investigate the casual relationship between tourism, financial development, energy consumptions and carbon emissions in Turkey and four European Union countries France, Spain, Italy and Greece which are the main competitors of Turkish tourism for the 1995-2010 period. According to the results of the study, for the panel as a whole there are statistically significant feedback effects between the variables. One per cent increase in energy consumption will rise CO 2 emission by 3.02 %, a one per cent increase in the financial development will decrease CO 2 emission by 0.12 % and also one percentage increase in tourist arrival will decrease CO 2 emission by 0.11 %. The causality analysis shows uni-directional causal relationship between the tourist arrivals and financial development. And also there is a bi-directional causality relationship between CO 2 emission, financial development, and energy and tourist arrival.
Bu çalışmanın amacı Korku Endeksi (VIX) ile BİST 100 arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini tespit etmektir. Çalışmada 03.01.2000-09.02.2018 zaman aralığındaki günlük verilerin kullanılarak, VIX ile BİST 100 arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi frekans alanı nedensellik testi yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, BİST 100 endeksinden, VIX endeksine doğru ne geçici ne de kalıcı bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunamamıştır. Bununla birlikte, VIX endeksinden, BİST 100 endeksine doğru hem geçici hem de kalıcı nedensellik ilişkisi tek yönlü olarak tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, yatırımcılar, BİST100 endeksi için hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde öngörüde bulunurken, VIX endeksinden faydalanabilecektir.
In this paper, an Artificial Neural Network study has been implemented to forecast the prediction of precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices by using RapidMiner data mining software. The five performance measures; root mean squared error, absolute error, relative error, Spearman's Rho and Kendall's Tau are utilized to evaluate artificial neural network model. This study concentrates on data which includes gold, silver, palladium, platinum, Brent Petrol, natural gas prices, 30 years' bond, 10 years' bond, 5 years' bond, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, FTSE100, DAX, CAC40, SMI, NIKKEI, HANH, SENG and Euro/USD within the period of 4th of January 2010 to 14th of December 2015. The prices on the last quarter of 2015 is used for forecasting and validation. The results show that error rates are accurate in order to foresee the market trends.
Finansal okuryazarlık kavramı, toplumun finansal sisteme katılımının en üst düzeye ulaştığı günümüzde büyük önem kazanmıştır. Bu önemine istinaden iş hayatına atılmayı bekleyen ve geleceğin finansal sisteminde taraf olacak üniversite öğrencilerinin bu anlamdaki yeterlilikleri merak konusudur. Bu çalışmada Bandırma Onyedi Eylül Üniversitesi öğrencilerinin finansal okuryazarlık düzeylerinin ölçülmesi ve bu düzeylerin nelere göre farklılık gösterdiğinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla çalışmanın başında giriş ve literatür taramasına daha sonraki bölümlerinde araştırmanın yöntemi, analiz ve bulguları ve sonucuna yer verilmiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlara göre Bandırma Onyedi Eylül Üniversitesinde okuyan öğrencilerin finansal okuryazarlık düzeyleri %58 olarak tespit edilmiştir. Cinsiyet, yaş, sınıf, bölüm gibi demografik faktörlerin yanında finansal sisteme katılımla ilgili durumlara göre öğrencilerin finansal okuryazarlık düzeylerinde farklılıklar olduğu gözlemlenmiştir.
use the gold as an alternative investment tool. In this context, the aim of this study is to determine if using gold in their portfolio as an alternative investment tool provides benefit for the investors or not. For this purpose, the relationship between gold and stock market is tested using monthly time series data of gold prices and Borsa Istanbul 100 from 2006-April to 2018-August. Before building the model, time series properties of the model are investigated and the best VAR model is selected. Causality relationship between the variables is tested using with Toda-Yamamoto causality test. Return series are calculated in order to be used in the model. According to the results of the study, the hypothesis stating "there is no causality relationship from gold return series to BIST 100 series and there is no causality relationship from BIST 100 series to gold return series" is accepted. In conclusion, it is beneficial for investors to use gold as an alternative investment tool in order to diversify the risks.
In this study, the effect of raw oil prices and exchange rates on current account deficit of the Turkish Economy has been examined by investigating the short and long run relationship between the current account deficit of the Turkish Economy, raw oil prices (Brent oil prices) and exchange rates (USD/TRY). The Monthly Data between December 1991 and January 2016 were used in the study. The relationships between the variables were tested with the VAR (Vector Auto Regressive) Model. None of the series was found stable after the unit root tests, but it was observed that all the variables became stable when their first differences were taken. Firstly, an unrestricted VAR model was built to determine the long term relationship between the variables. After the long term relationship was found between the variables, the VECM (Vector Error Correction) Model was estimated in order to determine the short term relationship. A mutual granger causality relationship is detected between crude oil prices and current account deficit variables. No causality relationship is found between the other variables.
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