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The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll’s range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance through a ‘predator pit’ effect following weather-induced decline. Predation intensity could increase further should cats become increasingly nocturnal in response to devil declines.

To conserve a declining species we first need to diagnose the causes of decline. This is one of the most challenging tasks faced by conservation practitioners. In this study, we used temporally explicit species distribution models (SDMs) to test whether shifting weather can explain the recent decline of a marsupial carnivore, the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus). We developed an SDM using weather variables matched to occurrence records of the eastern quoll over the last 60 years, and used the model to reconstruct variation through time in the distribution of climatically suitable range for the species. The weather model produced a meaningful prediction of the known distribution of the species. Abundance of quolls, indexed by transect counts, was positively related to the modelled area of suitable habitat between 1990 and 2004. In particular, a sharp decline in abundance from 2001 to 2003 coincided with a sustained period of unsuitable weather over much of the species’ distribution. Since 2004, abundance has not recovered despite a return to suitable weather conditions, and abundance and area of suitable habitat have been uncorrelated. We suggest that fluctuations in weather account for the species’ recent decline, but other unrelated factors have suppressed recovery.

Australia’s mammalian fauna has suffered unparalleled extinctions and declines in recent history. Tasmania has remained largely unaffected by these losses; however, marsupial dynamics are changing rapidly and new threats are emerging. Once abundant throughout south-eastern Australia, the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) survives only in Tasmania. Until recently, it was considered widespread and common, but it may be undergoing a rapid and severe decline. The aim of this study was to quantify changes in eastern quoll populations over recent years. Data were compiled from statewide spotlight surveys, repeated historic trapping surveys and bycatch records from non-target trapping surveys. Spotlight surveys from 150 sites across Tasmania revealed a 52% reduction in the number of eastern quoll sightings over the 10 years to 2009. Declines of 61–100% were observed in trapping surveys at three study sites compared with trapping conducted 18–31 years earlier. A reduction in trap success was recorded in five of six non-target surveys, with declines of 51–100% over 1–12 years. These results suggest that the eastern quoll can no longer be presumed secure in Tasmania. Urgent management action may be needed to ensure the future conservation of the species in its last remaining stronghold.

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