Knowledge of mammalian diversity is still surprisingly disparate, both regionally and taxonomically. Here, we present a comprehensive assessment of the conservation status and distribution of the world's mammals. Data, compiled by 1700+ experts, cover all 5487 species, including marine mammals. Global macroecological patterns are very different for land and marine species but suggest common mechanisms driving diversity and endemism across systems. Compared with land species, threat levels are higher among marine mammals, driven by different processes (accidental mortality and pollution, rather than habitat loss), and are spatially distinct (peaking in northern oceans, rather than in Southeast Asia). Marine mammals are also disproportionately poorly known. These data are made freely available to support further scientific developments and conservation action.

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Most pathogens threatening to cause extinction of a host species are maintained on one or more reservoir hosts, in addition to the species that is threatened by disease. Further, most conventional host-pathogen theory assumes that transmission is related to host density, and therefore a pathogen should become extinct before its sole host. Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease is a recently emerged infectious cancer that has led to massive population declines and grave concerns for the future persistence of this largest surviving marsupial carnivore. Here we report the results of mark-recapture studies at six sites and use these data to estimate epidemiological parameters critical to both accurately assessing the risk of extinction from this disease and effectively managing this disease threat. Three sites were monitored from before or close to the time of disease arrival, and at three others disease was well established when trapping began, in one site for at least 10 years. We found no evidence for sex-specific differences in disease prevalence and little evidence of consistent seasonal variation in the force of infection. At all sites, the disease was maintained at high levels of prevalence (>50% in 2-3-year-old animals), despite causing major population declines. We also provide the first estimates of the basic reproductive rate R0 for this disease. Using a simple age-structured deterministic model, we show that our results are not consistent with transmission being proportional to the density of infected hosts but are consistent with frequency-dependent transmission. This conclusion is further supported by the observation that local disease prevalence in 2-3-year-olds still exceeds 50% at a site where population density has been reduced by up to 90% in the past 12 years. These findings lend considerable weight to concerns that this host-specific pathogen will cause the extinction of the Tasmanian devil. Our study highlights the importance of rapidly implementing monitoring programs to determine how transmission depends on host density and emphasizes the need for ongoing management strategies involving a disease-free "insurance population," along with ongoing field monitoring programs to confirm whether local population extinction occurs.

Changes in life history are expected when new sources of extrinsic mortality impact on natural populations. We report a new disease, devil facial tumor disease, causing an abrupt transition from iteroparity toward single breeding in the largest extant carnivorous marsupial, the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), in which males can weigh as much as 14 kg and females 9 kg. This change in life history is associated with almost complete mortality of individuals from this infectious cancer past their first year of adult life. Devils have shown their capacity to respond to this diseaseinduced increased adult mortality with a 16-fold increase in the proportion of individuals exhibiting precocious sexual maturity. These patterns are documented in five populations where there are data from before and after disease arrival and subsequent population impacts. To our knowledge, this is the first known case of infectious disease leading to increased early reproduction in a mammal. The persistence of both this disease and the associated life-history changes pose questions about longer-term evolutionary responses and conservation prospects for this iconic species.carnivorous marsupial ͉ infectious cancer ͉ wildlife disease ͉ precocious breeding ͉ semelparity

1. Monitoring the response of wild mammal populations to threatening processes is fundamental to effective conservation management. This is especially true for infectious diseases, which may have dynamic and therefore unpredictable interactions with their host. 2. We investigate the long-term impact of a transmissible cancer, devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), on the endemic Tasmanian devil. We analyse trends in devil spot-light counts and density across the area impacted by the disease. We investigate the demographic parameters which might be driving these trends, and use spatial capture-recapture models to examine whether DFTD has affected home range size. 3. We found that devils have declined by an average of 77% in areas affected by DFTD, and that there is a congruent trend of ongoing small decline in spotlight counts and density estimates. Despite this, devils have persisted to date within each of nine monitoring sites. One site is showing as yet unexplained small increases in density 8–10 years after the emergence of DFTD. 4. We also found the prevalence of DFTD has not abated despite large declines in density and that diseased sites continue to be dominated by young devils. The long-term impact of the disease has been partially offset by increased fecundity in the form of precocial breeding in 1-year-old females, and more pouch young per female in diseased sites. The lower densities resulting from DFTD did not affect home range size. 5. Synthesis and applications. Transmission of devil facial tumour disease continues despite large declines in devil density over multiple generations. Plasticity in life history traits has ameliorated the impact of devil facial tumour disease, however broad-scale trends in density show ongoing decline. In light of this, devil facial tumour disease and the impact of stochastic events on the reduced densities wrought by the disease, continue to threaten devils. In the absence of methods to manage disease in wild populations, we advocate managing the low population densities resulting from disease rather than disease per se.

The Tasmanian devil, Sarcophilus harrisii, is the largest extant marsupial carnivore. In 1996, a debilitating facial tumor was reported. It is now clear that this is an invariably lethal infectious cancer. The disease has now spread across the majority of the range of the species and is likely to occur across the entire range within 5 to 10 years. The disease has lead to continuing declines of up to 90% and virtual disappearance of older age classes. Mark-recapture analysis and a preliminary epidemiological model developed for the population with the best longitudinal data both project local extinction in that area over a timeframe of 10 to 15 years from disease emergence. However, the prediction of extinction from the model is sensitive to the estimate of the latent period, which is poorly known. As transmission appears to occur by biting, much of which happens during sexual encounters, the dynamics of the disease may be typical of sexually transmitted diseases. This means that transmission is likely to be frequency-dependent with no threshold density for disease maintenance. Extinction over the entire current range of the devil is therefore a real possibility and an unacceptable risk.

COPD has a profound impact on daily life, yet remains underdiagnosed and undertreated. We set out to develop a brief, reliable, self-scored questionnaire to identify individuals likely to have COPD. COPD-PS TM development began with a list of concepts identified for inclusion using expert opinion from a clinician working group comprised of pulmonologists (n = 5) and primary care clinicians (n = 5). A national survey of 697 patients was conducted at 12 practitioner sites. Logistic regression identified items discriminating between patients with and without fixed airflow obstruction (AO, postbronchodilator FEV 1 /FVC < 70%). ROC analyses evaluated screening accuracy, compared scoring options, and assessed concurrent validity. Convergent and discriminant validity were assessed via COPD-PS and SF-12v2 score correlations. For known-groups validation, COPD-PS differences between clinical groups were tested. Test-retest reliability was evaluated in a 20% sample. Of 697 patients surveyed, 295 patients met expert review criteria for spirometry performance; 38% of these (n = 113) had results indicating AO. Five items positively predicted AO ( p < 0.0001): breathlessness, productive cough, activity limitation, smoking history, and age. COPD-PS scores accurately classified AO status (area under ROC curve = 0.81) and reliable (r = 0.91 MD, MSc, San Jacinto Methodist Hospital, Baytown, TX; Mary Issac, MD, MPH, St. Joseph's Community Care Hospital, Tampa, FL; Fernando J. Martinez, MD, MS, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; Phillip Menashe, MD, Yakima Chest Clinic, Yakima, WA; Anna W. Parkman, RRT, PhD, Ohio Dominican University, Columbus, OH; Michael A. Russoniello, MD, St. Clares Hospital, Denville, NJ; Frederic D. Seifer, MD, Takoma Adventist Hospital, Greeneville, TN. Correspondence to: Fernando J. Martinez, MD, MS, Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, University of Michigan Health System, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA; email: fmartine@umich.edu COPD: Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary DiseaseApril 2008 85 AO scored significantly higher (6.8, SD = 1.9; p < 0.0001) than patients without AO (4.0, SD = 2.3). Higher scores were associated with more severe AO, bronchodilator use, and overnight hospitalization for breathing problems. With the prevalence of COPD in the studied cohort, a score on the COPD-PS of greater than five was associated with a positive predictive value of 56.8% and negative predictive value of 86.4%. The COPD-PS accurately classified physicianreported COPD (AUC = 0.89). The COPD-PS is a brief, accurate questionnaire that can identify individuals likely to have COPD.

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