Testing the Role of Climate Change in Species Decline: Is the Eastern Quoll a Victim of a Change in the Weather?

Fancourt, Bronwyn A.; Bateman, Brooke L.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Nicol, Stewart C.; Hawkins, Clare E.; Jones, Menna Lloyd; Johnson, Christopher N.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0129420

Cited by 30 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 68 publications

(85 reference statements)

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“…Here, it is important to note that our analysis did not account for changes in rainfall patterns over time, a factor which has the potential to drive shifts in species range (Davis & Shaw, ) and niche (Broennimann et al, ). While the inclusion of such analysis was outside the scope of this study, we strongly suggest this topic be addressed in future studies as it has been in other species of quoll (Fancourt et al, ), particularly in the context of the earth's rapidly changing climate (Urban, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Topographic ruggedness and rainfall mediate geographic range contraction of a threatened marsupial predator

Moore

Dunlop²,

Valentine

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim Species range contractions are increasingly common globally. The niche reduction hypothesis posits that geographic range contractions are often patterned across space owing to heterogeneity in threat impacts and tolerance. We applied the niche reduction hypothesis to the decline of a threatened marsupial predator across northern Australia, the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus). Location Northern Australia. Methods We assembled a database containing 3,178 historic and contemporary records for northern quolls across the extent of their distribution dating between 1778 and 2019. Based on these records, we estimated changes in the geographic range of the northern quoll using α‐hulls across four main populations. We then examined how range contractions related to factors likely to mediate the exposure, susceptibility, or tolerance of northern quolls to threats. Result The extent of range contractions showed an east–west gradient, most likely reflecting the timing of spread of introduced cane toads (Rhinella marina). There were clear changes in environmental characteristics within the contemporary compared to the historic geographic range, with the most substantial occurring in populations that have suffered the greatest range contractions. The contemporary range is comprised of higher quality habitats (measured using environmental niche models), characterized by higher topographical ruggedness and annual rainfall, and reduced distance to water, compared to the historic range. Main conclusions Changes to range and niche likely reflect the capacity of complex habitats to ameliorate threats (namely predation and altered fire regimes), and access to resources that increase threat tolerance. This study highlights the multivariate nature of ecological refuges and the importance of high‐quality habitats for the persistence of species exposed to multiple threats. Our methods provide a useful framework which can be applied across taxa in providing valuable insight to management.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Topographic ruggedness and rainfall mediate geographic range contraction of a threatened marsupial predator

Moore

Dunlop²,

Valentine

et al. 2019

Diversity and Distributions

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“…Wild eastern quoll populations have recently declined throughout mainland Tasmania . While a change in weather suitability is considered the proximate cause of decline and candidate disease processes such as toxoplasmosis were found not to have contributed to the decline, as a precautionary measure, reference individuals were not sourced from any low‐density population or sites where populations were known to have declined. At the time of this study, North Bruny Island (Figure ) supported the only high‐density eastern quoll population that had remained stable for many years .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The eastern quoll ( Dasyurus viverrinus ) is an endangered carnivorous marsupial that has suffered significant population declines due to a reduction in suitable weather trends . This species was formerly widespread throughout south‐eastern Australia but became extinct on the Australian mainland in the 1960s, and now survives only on the island state of Tasmania .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hematologic and serum biochemical reference intervals for wild eastern quolls (Dasyurus viverrinus): Variation by age, sex, and season

Fancourt

Nicol

2019

Veterinary Clinical Pathol

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Background: The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is an endangered carnivorous marsupial that has recently suffered significant population declines. Several small captive breeding populations have been established, with plans to translocate wild and captive individuals to areas of their former distribution. Accordingly, hematologic and serum biochemical reference intervals (RIs) established from wild eastern quoll populations are essential for monitoring the health and disease status of both captive and wild populations, and to evaluate the health of individuals before, during, and after translocation.Objectives: We aimed to establish hematologic and serum biochemical RIs for wild eastern quolls, and examine the effects of age, sex, and season. Methods: We collected a total of 202 hematologic samples, 309 packed cell volume samples, and 335 serum biochemical samples from 168 individual quolls between May 2011 and November 2013. Species-level RIs were established, as well as RIs of groups separated by age (juvenile, adult) and sex (adult male, adult female) using nonparametric, robust, and parametric methods. Seasonal variation in age-and sexspecific reference values was also assessed.Results: Strong age and seasonal variation were evident in many hematologic and serum biochemical analytes, with significant variation observed in serum biochemical analytes between the sexes. Conclusions:The observed age, sex, and seasonal variation reflect differences in the timing of growth and reproductive stressors, which interact with seasonal energetic demands. Our findings highlight the importance of using age-, sex-, and season-specific RIs for clinical evaluation of eastern quolls, as species-level RIs will inadvertently smooth and mask important seasonal fluctuations that reflect reproductive status at different times.

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“…8 BROOKE L. BATEMAN ET AL. 2010, Bateman et al 2012b, VanDerWal et al 2013, Fancourt et al 2015. However, the general performance of predictions based on short-term climate variability relative to long-term averages is not known.…”

Section: Ecological Applicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, Fancourt et al. ). However, the general performance of predictions based on short‐term climate variability relative to long‐term averages is not known.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short‐term variability and long‐term average climate data

Bateman

Pidgeon

Radeloff

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs.

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Testing the Role of Climate Change in Species Decline: Is the Eastern Quoll a Victim of a Change in the Weather?

Cited by 30 publications

References 68 publications

Topographic ruggedness and rainfall mediate geographic range contraction of a threatened marsupial predator

Topographic ruggedness and rainfall mediate geographic range contraction of a threatened marsupial predator

Hematologic and serum biochemical reference intervals for wild eastern quolls (Dasyurus viverrinus): Variation by age, sex, and season

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short‐term variability and long‐term average climate data

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