The agricultural expansion and intensification required to meet growing food and agri-based product demand present important challenges to future levels and management of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Influential actors such as corporations, governments, and multilateral organizations have made commitments to meeting future agricultural demand sustainably and preserving critical ecosystems. Current approaches to predicting the impacts of agricultural expansion involve calculation of total land conversion and assessment of the impacts on biodiversity or ecosystem services on a per-area basis, generally assuming a linear relationship between impact and land area. However, the impacts of continuing land development are often not linear and can vary considerably with spatial configuration. We demonstrate what could be gained by spatially explicit analysis of agricultural expansion at a large scale compared with the simple measure of total area converted, with a focus on the impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage. Using simple modeling approaches for two regions of Brazil, we find that for the same amount of land conversion, the declines in biodiversity and carbon storage can vary two-to fourfold depending on the spatial pattern of conversion. Impacts increase most rapidly in the earliest stages of agricultural expansion and are more pronounced in scenarios where conversion occurs in forest interiors compared with expansion into forests from their edges. This study reveals the importance of spatially explicit information in the assessment of land-use change impacts and for future land management and conservation.ecosystem services | deforestation | agricultural expansion | fragmentation | edge effects
Wildlife managers are tasked with identifying and managing stressors that threaten persistence of populations. We demonstrate an approach to land‐use planning that combines scenario modeling and ecological risk assessment to map and quantify risk to population persistence for three rare prairie species in Washington State, USA. Following corroboration of model output, we found that of the management scenarios considered, only a scenario with year‐round restrictions on use of off‐road vehicles, digging, and camping enforced in all potential habitat reduces risk to the species. Decreased risk is focused primarily in two patches of prairie habitat in our study area, indicating stringent restrictions need not be applied broadly. However, one area is not easily accessed by two of the three species considered, suggesting reintroductions to suitable but inaccessible habitat may play an important role in management of these species. Our analyses suggest changes in land use and management that might improve habitat for rare species, with options for minimizing monetary and social costs. Because the proposed approach relies on hypothetical management scenarios and uses a model flexible in data requirements to provide spatially explicit output, it can be used to inform adaptive management of rare species in diverse land‐planning processes and will be especially useful when management decisions must be made under time or cost constraints.
Public agencies worldwide are increasingly adopting an ecosystem service framework to manage lands serving multiple uses. Yet, reliable, practical, and well-tailored methods remain a major limitation in moving from conceptual to actionable approaches. Together with one of the largest federal land managing agencies, we co-develop and co-demonstrate an ecosystem services approach tailored to specific decisions, through a process with potentially widespread relevance. With the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), we focus on balancing military training with biodiversity and resource conservation under both budgetary and land-use pressures at a representative installation. In an iterative process of co-design and application, we define, map, and quantify multiple ecosystem services under realistic management options. Resource management budget emerges as a major determinant of the degree to which managers can sustain both necessary training environments -a DoD-specific ecosystem service -and a prairie ecosystem with species of conservation concern. We also found clear tradeoffs between training intensity and forest-related services. Our co-developed approach brings otherwise hidden values and tradeoffs to the fore in a balanced way that can help public agencies safeguard priority services under potentially conflicting uses and budget limitations.
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