Informing management of rare species with an approach combining scenario modeling and spatially explicit risk assessment

Duggan, Jennifer; Eichelberger, Bradley A.; Ma, Shan; Lawler, Joshua J.; Ziv, Guy

doi:10.1890/ehs14-0009.1

Cited by 28 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Managers and policymakers are often required to manage anthropogenic stressors of wildlife populations based on imperfect knowledge regarding spatial patterns of risk (Duggan et al 2015). To better understand potential impacts, we used methods similar to others (Neal et al 2010, Tack and Fedy 2015, Carr and Melcher 2017, Juliusson and Doherty 2017) to assess the overlap of spatial distribution of high‐quality ferruginous hawk and golden eagle habitat with areas of likely energy (oil/gas, wind) development.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resource selection of apex raptors: implications for siting energy development in sagebrush and prairie ecosystems

et al. 2020

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There is an urgent need to understand ecological responses of avian species to the rapidly expanding human footprint of conventional and renewable energy development in sagebrush and prairie ecosystems. The ferruginous hawk (Buteo regalis) and golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) are two sympatric raptors of conservation concern that occupy and flourish in the most intact sagebrush steppe region remaining in North America. To understand these species’ use of habitat relative to energy development, we built resource selection functions using a spatially representative sample of occupied nesting territories collected in 2010–2011 and remotely sensed environmental variables across an extensive study area (186,693 km2). We used the resulting predicted resource selection maps to evaluate spatial overlap between the nesting habitats of these sympatric raptor species, as well as overlap of predicted habitat with potential development of oil/gas and wind energy resources. Remotely sensed variables were very effective in modeling patterns of nest‐site selection based on fivefold cross‐validation (>0.93 Spearman‐rank correlation) and validation with an independent dataset of historical nests collected from 2000 to 2009. Topographic roughness and intermediate levels of spring precipitation were the strongest drivers of differences in habitat use between ferruginous hawks and golden eagles. We did not detect a strong signal of avoidance of energy infrastructure by either species at current levels of development and both nested closer than expected to gravel/dirt roads associated with oil and gas infrastructure. However, extensive overlap of nesting habitat more selected by ferruginous hawks and golden eagles with areas of actual and potential energy development suggests both species are at risk from future habitat fragmentation. Given that 80% of nests are> 1 km from oil/gas wells, we believe the density of energy‐related disturbance present during our study was insufficient to drive patterns of resource selection for ferruginous hawks when considered at broad spatial scales. However, it was beyond the scope of our study to predict long‐term, population‐level responses. We suggest rigorous monitoring of long‐term trends in occupancy, productivity, and distribution is warranted for populations of ferruginous hawk and golden eagle in sagebrush and prairie ecosystems exposed to increased energy development.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resource selection of apex raptors: implications for siting energy development in sagebrush and prairie ecosystems

et al. 2020

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“…Spatially-explicit risk assessments have been used to support conservation of habitats in coastal Belize (Arkema et al, 2014;Verutes et al, 2017), marine and terrestrial fauna in Washington state, USA (Samhouri and Levin, 2012;Duggan et al, 2017), freshwater lenses (aquifer) in The Bahamas (Holding and Allen, 2014), and dugongs (Dugong dugon) in Sabah, Malaysia (Briscoe et al, 2014). In Belize, the InVEST habitat risk assessment model (naturalcapitalproject.org) is a spatial risk assessment tool that was applied as part of a coastal zoning process where risk to habitats was used to alter inputs to ecological production functions in mechanistic complex, process-based models of spiny lobster catch and revenue, tourism visitation and expenditures, and natural protection provided by coastal habitats during storms (Arkema et al, 2015;Guannel et al, 2016).…”

Section: Spatially-explicit Risk Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Embracing Complexity and Complexity-Awareness in Marine Megafauna Conservation and Research

Lewison¹,

Johnson²,

Verutes³

2018

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Conservation of marine megafauna is nested within an intricate tapestry of multiple ocean resource uses which are, in turn, embedded in a dynamic and complex ecological ocean system that varies and shifts across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Marine megafauna conservation is often further complicated by contemporaneous, and sometimes competing, social, economic, and ecological factors and related management objectives. Advances in emerging technologies and applications, such as remotely-sensed oceanographic data, animal-based telemetry, novel computational analyses, innovations in structured decision making, and stakeholder engagement and policy are supporting complex systems and complexity-aware approaches to megafauna conservation and research. Here we discuss several applications that focus on megafauna fisheries bycatch and exemplify how complex systems and complexity-aware approaches that inherently acknowledge and account for the complexity of ocean systems can advance megafauna conservation and research. Emerging technologies, applications and approaches that embrace, rather than ignore, complexity can drive innovation and success in megafauna conservation and research.

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“…The HRA model is a quantitative approach to evaluating the cumulative influence of stressors associated with human activities on habitats [23,51] and is available as part of the open-source InVEST ecosystem service modeling software [52]. HRA uses a well-established approach [51,[53][54][55] from the risk literature that originates from fisheries vulnerability assessment [37,39,56] and was subsequently adopted for ecological risk assessment [23,51]. A central feature and strength of the HRA model is that it explicitly breaks down exposure and consequence in a risk framework and, in so doing, offers insight into effective management strategies.…”

Section: Estimating Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Habitat risk assessment for regional ocean planning in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

Wyatt¹,

Griffin²,

Guerry³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Coastal habitats provide important benefits to people, including habitat for species targeted by fisheries and opportunities for tourism and recreation. Yet, such human activities also can imperil these habitats and undermine the ecosystem services they provide to people. Cumulative risk assessment provides an analytical framework for synthesizing the influence of multiple stressors across habitats and decision-support for balancing human uses and ecosystem health. To explore cumulative risk to habitats in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Ocean Planning regions, we apply the open-source InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment model to 13 habitats and 31 stressors in an exposure-consequence framework. In doing so, we advance the science priorities of EBM and both regional planning bodies by synthesizing the wealth of available data to improve our understanding of human uses and how they affect marine resources. We find that risk to ecosystems is greatest first, along the coast, where a large number of stressors occur in close proximity and secondly, along the continental shelf, where fewer, higher consequence activities occur. Habitats at greatest risk include soft and hard-bottom nearshore areas, tidal flats, soft-bottom shelf habitat, and rocky intertidal zones—with the degree of risk varying spatially. Across all habitats, our results indicate that rising sea surface temperatures, commercial fishing, and shipping consistently and disproportionally contribute to risk. Further, our findings suggest that management in the nearshore will require simultaneously addressing the temporal and spatial overlap as well as intensity of multiple human activities and that management in the offshore requires more targeted efforts to reduce exposure from specific threats. We offer a transparent, generalizable approach to evaluating cumulative risk to multiple habitats and illustrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of impacts along the eastern Atlantic coast and the importance of spatial scale in estimating such impacts. These results offer a valuable decision-support tool by helping to constrain the decision space, focus attention on habitats and locations at the greatest risk, and highlight effect management strategies.

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Informing management of rare species with an approach combining scenario modeling and spatially explicit risk assessment

Cited by 28 publications

References 40 publications

Resource selection of apex raptors: implications for siting energy development in sagebrush and prairie ecosystems

Resource selection of apex raptors: implications for siting energy development in sagebrush and prairie ecosystems

Embracing Complexity and Complexity-Awareness in Marine Megafauna Conservation and Research

Habitat risk assessment for regional ocean planning in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

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