Colorectal tumors that are wild-type (WT) for KRAS are often sensitive to EGFR blockade, but almost always develop resistance within several months of initiating therapy1,2. The mechanisms underlying this acquired resistance to anti-EGFR antibodies are largely unknown. This situation stands in marked contrast to that of small molecule targeted agents, such as inhibitors of ABL, EGFR, BRAF, and MEK, in which mutations in the genes encoding the protein targets render the tumors resistant to the effects of the drugs3–6. The simplest hypothesis to account for the development of resistance to EGFR blockade are that rare cells with KRAS mutations pre-exist at low levels in tumors with ostensibly WT KRAS genes. Though this hypothesis would seem readily testable, there is no evidence in pre-clinical models to support it, nor is there data from patients. To test this hypothesis, we determined whether mutant KRAS DNA could be detected in the circulation of 28 patients receiving monotherapy with panitumumab, a therapeutic anti-EGFR antibody. We found that nine of 24 (38%) patients whose tumors were initially KRAS WT developed detectable mutations in KRAS in their sera, three of which developed multiple different KRAS mutations. The appearance of these mutations was very consistent, generally occurring between five to six months following treatment. Mathematical modeling indicated that the mutations were present in expanded subclones prior to the initiation of panitumumab. These results suggest that the emergence of KRAS mutations is a mediator of acquired resistance to EGFR blockade and that these mutations can be detected in a non-invasive manner. Moreover, they explain why solid tumors develop resistance to targeted therapies in a highly reproducible fashion.

In solid tumors, targeted treatments can lead to dramatic regressions, but responses are often short-lived because resistant cancer cells arise. The major strategy proposed for overcoming resistance is combination therapy. We present a mathematical model describing the evolutionary dynamics of lesions in response to treatment. We first studied 20 melanoma patients receiving vemurafenib. We then applied our model to an independent set of pancreatic, colorectal, and melanoma cancer patients with metastatic disease. We find that dual therapy results in long-term disease control for most patients, if there are no single mutations that cause cross-resistance to both drugs; in patients with large disease burden, triple therapy is needed. We also find that simultaneous therapy with two drugs is much more effective than sequential therapy. Our results provide realistic expectations for the efficacy of new drug combinations and inform the design of trials for new cancer therapeutics.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00747.001

Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. The structure of a population can affect which traits evolve. Understanding evolutionary game dynamics in structured populations remains difficult. Mathematical results are known for special structures in which all individuals have the same number of neighbours. The general case, in which the number of neighbours can vary, has remained open. For arbitrary selection intensity, the problem is in a computational complexity class that suggests there is no efficient algorithm. Whether a simple solution for weak selection exists has remained unanswered. Here we provide a solution for weak selection that applies to any graph or network. Our method relies on calculating the coalescence times of random walks. We evaluate large numbers of diverse population structures for their propensity to favour cooperation. We study how small changes in population structure-graph surgery-affect evolutionary outcomes. We find that cooperation flourishes most in societies that are based on strong pairwise ties.

The extent of heterogeneity of driver gene mutations present in naturally occurring metastases is largely unknown, i.e. treatment-naïve metastatic disease. To address this issue, 60× whole genome sequencing of 26 metastases from 4 patients was carried out. We found that the identical driver gene mutations were present in every metastatic lesion of each patient studied. Passenger gene mutations not known or predicted to have functional consequences accounted for all intratumoral heterogeneity. Even with respect to these passenger gene mutations, the genetic similarity among the founding cells of metastases was markedly higher than that expected for any two cells randomly taken from a normal tissue. The uniformity of driver gene mutations among metastases in the same patient has critical, encouraging implications for the success of future targeted therapies in advanced stage disease.

Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. The trajectories and outcomes of evolutionary processes depend on the structure of the population. Evolutionary graph theory is a powerful approach to studying the consequences of spatial or social population structure. The vertices of the graph represent individuals. The edges determine who interacts with whom for game payoff and who competes with whom for reproduction. Interaction and competition can be governed by the same graph or by two different graphs. In this paper, we review the basic approach for evolutionary games on graphs and provide new proofs for key results. We formalize the method of identity by descent to derive conditions for strategy selection on finite, weighted graphs. We generalize our results to nonzero mutation rates, and to the case where the interaction and competition graphs do not coincide. We conclude with a perspective of open problems and future directions.

Protecting biodiversity involves preserving the maximum number and abundance of species while giving special attention to species with unique genetic or morphological characteristics. In balancing different priorities, conservation policymakers may consider quantitative measures that compare diversity across ecological communities. To serve this purpose, a measure should increase or decrease with changes in community composition in a way that reflects what is valued, including species richness, evenness, and distinctness. However, counterintuitively, studies have shown that established indices, including those that emphasize average interspecies phylogenetic distance, may increase with the elimination of species. We introduce a new diversity index, the phylogenetic entropy, which generalizes in a natural way the Shannon index to incorporate species relatedness. Phylogenetic entropy favors communities in which highly distinct species are more abundant, but it does not advocate decreasing any species proportion below a community structure-dependent threshold. We contrast the behavior of multiple indices on a community of phyllostomid bats in the Selva Lacandona. The optimal genus distribution for phylogenetic entropy populates all genera in a linear relationship to their total phylogenetic distance to other genera. Two other indices favor eliminating 12 out of the 23 genera.

The emergence of cooperation is a central question in evolutionary biology. Microorganisms often cooperate by producing a chemical resource (a public good) that benefits other cells. The sharing of public goods depends on their diffusion through space. Previous theory suggests that spatial structure can promote evolution of cooperation, but the diffusion of public goods introduces new phenomena that must be modeled explicitly. We develop an approach where colony geometry and public good diffusion are described by graphs. We find that the success of cooperation depends on a simple relation between the benefits and costs of the public good, the amount retained by a producer, and the average amount retained by each of the producer’s neighbors. These quantities are derived as analytic functions of the graph topology and diffusion rate. In general, cooperation is favored for small diffusion rates, low colony dimensionality, and small rates of decay of the public good.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01169.001

We investigate a class of evolutionary models, encompassing many established models of well-mixed and spatially structured populations. Models in this class have fixed population size and structure. Evolution proceeds as a Markov chain, with birth and death probabilities dependent on the current population state. Starting from basic assumptions, we show how the asymptotic (long-term) behavior of the evolutionary process can be characterized by probability distributions over the set of possible states. We then define and compare three quantities characterizing evolutionary success: fixation probability, expected frequency, and expected change due to selection. We show that these quantities yield the same conditions for success in the limit of low mutation rate, but may disagree when mutation is present. As part of our analysis, we derive versions of the Price equation and the replicator equation that describe the asymptotic behavior of the entire evolutionary process, rather than the change from a single state. We illustrate our results using the frequency-dependent Moran process and the birth-death process on graphs as examples. Our broader aim is to spearhead a new approach to evolutionary theory, in which general principles of evolution are proven as mathematical theorems from axioms.