Risk-ranking protocols are used widely to classify the conservation status of the world's species. Here we report on the first empirical assessment of their reliability by using a retrospective study of 18 pairs of bird and mammal species (one species extinct and the other extant) with eight different assessors. The performance of individual assessors varied substantially, but performance was improved by incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and consensus among the assessors. When this was done, the ranks from the protocols were consistent with the extinction outcome in 70-80% of pairs and there were mismatches in only 10-20% of cases. This performance was similar to the subjective judgements of the assessors after they had estimated the range and population parameters required by the protocols, and better than any single parameter. When used to inform subjective judgement, the protocols therefore offer a means of reducing unpredictable biases that may be associated with expert input and have the advantage of making the logic behind assessments explicit. We conclude that the protocols are useful for forecasting extinctions, although they are prone to some errors that have implications for conservation. Some level of error is to be expected, however, given the influence of chance on extinction. The performance of risk assessment protocols may be improved by providing training in the application of the protocols, incorporating uncertainty in parameter estimates and using consensus among multiple assessors, including some who are experts in the application of the protocols. Continued testing and refinement of the protocols may help to provide better absolute estimates of risk, particularly by reevaluating how the protocols accommodate missing data.
Goodenia nocoleche was cultivated in sediment collected from a freshwater temporary wetland in Nocoleche Nature Reserve. Here it is newly described and illustrated with additional notes on its ecology.
Translocation of plants is used globally as a conservation action to bolster existing or establish new populations of threatened species and is usually communicated in academic publications or case studies. Translocation is also used to mitigate or offset impacts of urbanization and development but is less often publicly published. Irrespective of the motivation, conservation or mitigation, on ground actions are driven by overriding global conservation goals, applied in local or national legislation. This paper deconstructs the legislative framework which guides the translocation process in Australia and provides a case study which may translate to other countries, grappling with similar complexities of how existing legislation can be used to improve accessibility of translocation records. Each year, across Australia, threatened plants are being translocated to mitigate development impacts, however, limited publicly accessible records of their performance are available. To improve transparency and opportunities to learn from the outcomes of previous mitigation translocations, we propose mandatory recording of threatened plant translocations in publicly accessible databases, implemented as part of development approval conditions of consent. The contribution to these need not be onerous, at a minimum including basic translocation information (who, what, when) at project commencement and providing monitoring data (outcome) at project completion. These records are currently already collected and prepared for translocation proposals and development compliance reporting. Possible repositories for this information include the existing national Australian Network for Plant Conservation translocation database and existing State and Territory databases (which already require contributions as a condition of licensing requirements) with new provisions to identify and search for translocation records. These databases could then be linked to the Atlas of Living Australia and the Australian Threatened Plant Index. Once established, proposals for mitigation translocation could be evaluated using these databases to determine the viability of mitigation translocation as an offset measure and to build on the work of others to ensure better outcomes for plant conservation, where translocations occur.
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