In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.

BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Using spatial predictions of future threats to biodiversity, we assessed for the first time the relative potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the threat status of plant species. We thus estimated how many taxa could be affected by future threats that are usually not included in current IUCN Red List assessments. Here, we computed the Red List status including future threats of 227 Proteaceae taxa endemic to the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, and compared this with their Red List status excluding future threats. We developed eight different land use and climate change scenarios for the year 2020, providing a range of best-to worst-case scenarios. Four scenarios include only the effects of future land use change, while the other four also include the impacts of projected anthropogenic climate change (HadCM2 IS92a GGa), using niche-based models. Up to a third of the 227 Proteaceae taxa are uplisted (become more threatened) by up to three threat categories if future threats as predicted for 2020 are included, and the proportion of threatened Proteaceae taxa rises on average by 9% (range 2-16%), depending on the scenario. With increasing severity of the scenarios, the proportion of Critically Endangered taxa increases from about 1% to 7% and almost 2% of the 227 Proteaceae taxa become Extinct because of climate change. Overall, climate change has the most severe effects on the Proteaceae, but land use change also severely affects some taxa. Most of the threatened taxa occur in low-lying coastal areas, but the proportion of threatened taxa changes considerably in inland mountain areas if future threats are included. Our approach gives important insights into how, where and when future threats could affect species persistence and can in a sense be seen as a test of the value of planned interventions for conservation.

We present a first assessment of the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the endemic flora of Namibia, and on its vegetation structure and function, for a projected climate in similar to 2050 and similar to 2080. We used both niche-based models (NBM) to evaluate the sensitivity of 159 endemic species to climate change (of an original 1020 plant species modeled) and a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) to assess the impacts of climate change on vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning. Endemic species modeled by NBM are moderately sensitive to projected climate change. Fewer than 5% are predicted to experience complete range loss by 2080, although more than 47% of the species are expected to be vulnerable (range reduction > 30%) by 2080 if they are assumed unable to migrate. Disaggregation of results by life-form showed distinct patterns. Endemic species of perennial herb, geophyte and tree life-formsare predicted to be negatively impacted in Namibia, whereas annual herb and succulent endemic species remain relatively stable by 2050 and 2080. Endemic annual herb species are even predicted to extend their range north-eastward into the tree and shrub savanna with migration, and tolerance of novel substrates. The current protected area network is predicted to meet its mandate by protecting most of the current endemicity in Namibia into the future. Vegetation simulated by DGVM is projected to experience a reduction in cover, net primary productivity and leaf area index throughout much of the country by 2050, with important implications for the faunal component of Namibia's ecosystems, and the agricultural sector. The plant functional type (PFT) composition of the major biomes may be substantially affected by climate change and rising atmospheric CO2- currently widespread deciduous broad leaved trees and C-4 PFTs decline, with the C-4 PFT particularly negatively affected by rising atmospheric CO2 impacts by similar to 2080 and deciduous broad leaved trees more likely directly impacted by drying and warming. The C-3 PFT may increase in prominence in the northwestern quadrant of the country by similar to 2080 as CO2 concentrations increase. These results suggest that substantial changes in species diversity, vegetation structure and ecosystem functioning can be expected in Namibia with anticipated climate change, although endemic plant richness may persist in the topographically diverse central escarpment region

T i m H . S p a r k s , S t u a r t H . M . B u t c h a r t , A n d r e w B a l m f o r d , L e o n B e n n u n D a m o n S t a n w e l l -S m i t h , M a t t W a l p o l e , N i c h o l a s R . B a t e s B a s t i a n B o m h a r d , G r a e m e M . B u c h a n a n , A n n a M . C h e n e r y , B e n C o l l e n J o r g e C s i r k e , R o b e r t J . D i a z , N i c h o l a s K . D u l v y , C l a i r e F i t z g e r a l d V a l e r i e K a p o s , P h i l i p p e M a y a u x , M e g a n T i e r n e y , M i c h e l l e W a y c o t t L o u i s a W o o d and R h y s E . G r e e n Abstract The target adopted by world leaders of significantly reducing the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010 was not met but this stimulated a new suite of biodiversity targets for 2020 adopted by the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in October 2010. Indicators will be essential for monitoring progress towards these targets and the CBD will be defining a suite of relevant indicators, building on those developed for the 2010 target. Here we argue that explicitly linked sets of indicators offer a more useful framework than do individual indicators because the former are easier to understand, communicate and interpret to guide policy. A Response-Pressure-State-Benefit framework for structuring and linking indicators facilitates an understanding of the relationships between policy actions, anthropogenic threats, the status of biodiversity and the benefits that people derive from it. Such an approach is appropriate at global, regional, national and local scales but for many systems it is easier to demonstrate causal linkages and use them to aid decision making at national and local scales. We outline examples of linked indicator sets for humid tropical forests and marine fisheries as illustrations of the concept and conclude that much work remains to be done in developing both the indicators and the causal links between them.

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More than 25% of natural World Heritage (WH) sites worldwide are estimated to be under pressure from existing or future mining and energy activities (IUCN 2008; UNESCO 2009). However, that 'pressure' has yet to be quantitatively defined and assessed for many regions of the world. We conducted a GIS-based analysis of overlap and proximity between natural WH sites and areas allocated to oil and gas concessions as well as pipelines and oil wells for all of sub-Saharan Africa. We found that oil and gas concessions were located within 27% of the WH sites, though no currently active oil wells were operating directly within the WH sites. A proximity-based assessment of oil and gas concessions within 5 km of WH site boundaries included only one additional WH site, suggesting that sites susceptible to indirect impacts from oil and gas development are likely to be those already overlapped by concessions. Our findings indicate that activity from oil and gas development in sub-Saharan WH sites has to date been limited; however, future pressure cannot be ruled out, due to continued presence of concessions within more than one quarter of the network, and projected expansion of oil and gas exploration within the region. Our results may be used to inform the inclusion of new sites into the WH network.

We report on land management and protected area management effectiveness in the tiger range. Wild tigers Panthera tigris are found in 13 countries, with habitat that is also important for ecosystem services, biodiversity and a number of other threatened species. Timber production, mineral mining, oil and gas concessions and protected areas are common land-use designations in tiger habitat. Twentyone per cent of the current tiger range is under some form of protection, while 9% is designated as 'strictly protected,' in IUCN categories I or II. Fifteen per cent of the tiger range is under oil and gas concession. These concessions also overlap 152 protected areas, 55 of which are categorized as strictly protected. Management effectiveness tracking tool responses suggest that the majority of protected areas in the tiger range are inadequately managed to meet their objectives, and the most commonly reported management challenges are minimal enforcement and budgets. We observe that even strictly protected areas are subject to a variety of pressures, particularly resource extraction. Results imply that the establishment and enforcement of effective protected areas in each tiger landscape, sufficient to protect and grow breeding tiger populations, could help change current trends. These areas should be free from incompatible land uses, and should be adequately resourced to meet management, enforcement and monitoring challenges. Weaknesses in protected area management identified here have implications for species and ecosystem services that share the same geography as tigers. In addition, results suggest that similar issues may exist for threatened species and protected areas in other geographies as well.