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Protected area downgrading, downsizing and degazettement (PADDD) is a global phenomenon that has not received formal attention in Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) policies designed to reduce forest carbon emissions and conserve biodiversity. Here, we examine how PADDD affects deforestation and forest carbon emissions. We documented 174 enacted and 8 proposed PADDD events affecting more than 48,000 km 2 in three REDD+ priority countries: Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malaysia, and Peru. Where sufficient data were available, we estimated deforestation rates and the quantity and economic value of forest carbon already lost and at risk in three land tenure classes: PADDDed, protected, and never-protected. PADDDed forests experienced deforestation and forest carbon emissions greatly exceeding rates in protected areas and slightly exceeding rates in never-protected forests. PADDD represents business-as-usual for protected areas, posing substantial risk to forests and forest carbon stocks. REDD+ policies have substantive implications for protected area biodiversity and forest carbon emissions; the Warsaw Framework for REDD+ provides new, but insufficient, guidance for nations to address these issues.

BackgroundTo implement the REDD+ mechanism (Reducing Emissions for Deforestation and Forest Degradation, countries need to prioritize areas to combat future deforestation CO2 emissions, identify the drivers of deforestation around which to develop mitigation actions, and quantify and value carbon for financial mechanisms. Each comes with its own methodological challenges, and existing approaches and tools to do so can be costly to implement or require considerable technical knowledge and skill. Here, we present an approach utilizing a machine learning technique known as Maximum Entropy Modeling (Maxent) to identify areas at high deforestation risk in the study area in Madre de Dios, Peru under a business-as-usual scenario in which historic deforestation rates continue. We link deforestation risk area to carbon density values to estimate future carbon emissions. We quantified area deforested and carbon emissions between 2000 and 2009 as the basis of the scenario.ResultsWe observed over 80,000 ha of forest cover lost from 2000-2009 (0.21% annual loss), representing over 39 million Mg CO2. The rate increased rapidly following the enhancement of the Inter Oceanic Highway in 2005. Accessibility and distance to previous deforestation were strong predictors of deforestation risk, while land use designation was less important. The model performed consistently well (AUC > 0.9), significantly better than random when we compared predicted deforestation risk to observed. If past deforestation rates continue, we estimate that 132,865 ha of forest could be lost by the year 2020, representing over 55 million Mg CO2.ConclusionsMaxent provided a reliable method for identifying areas at high risk of deforestation and the major explanatory variables that could draw attention for mitigation action planning under REDD+. The tool is accessible, replicable and easy to use; all necessary for producing good risk estimates and adapt models after potential landscape change. We propose this approach for developing countries planning to meet requirements under REDD+.

This study examines how human land uses and biophysical factors serve as predictors of land cover change in and around Madidi National Park in Bolivia. The Greater Madidi Landscape ranges over an elevational gradient from < 200 m in the Amazon basin to 6000 m in the high Andes, contains more than ten major ecosystem types, and several protected areas and sustainable use zones. In this study, Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite images collected over the study area at the beginning of the 1990s and then the 2000s were classified according to broad land cover types. Below elevations of 3000 m, the landscape experienced equal rates of deforestation and secondary forest increases of approximately 0.63 percent annually, resulting in no significant net change. Below elevations of 1000 m, however, we found an annual net loss in forest cover of 0.11 percent. Across the landscape, land cover change was most likely to occur near areas previously deforested, near roads and population centers, and at low elevations. We found net deforestation rates to be inversely related to strength of natural resource protection laws in protected areas and other jurisdictions. Results suggest little net change for the landscape as a whole, but that local scale changes may be significant, particularly near roads. Management policies favorable for biodiversity conservation in this landscape should limit the building of new roads and immigration to biologically sensitive areas and continue to support protected areas, which are achieving a positive result for forest conservation.

We report on land management and protected area management effectiveness in the tiger range. Wild tigers Panthera tigris are found in 13 countries, with habitat that is also important for ecosystem services, biodiversity and a number of other threatened species. Timber production, mineral mining, oil and gas concessions and protected areas are common land-use designations in tiger habitat. Twentyone per cent of the current tiger range is under some form of protection, while 9% is designated as 'strictly protected,' in IUCN categories I or II. Fifteen per cent of the tiger range is under oil and gas concession. These concessions also overlap 152 protected areas, 55 of which are categorized as strictly protected. Management effectiveness tracking tool responses suggest that the majority of protected areas in the tiger range are inadequately managed to meet their objectives, and the most commonly reported management challenges are minimal enforcement and budgets. We observe that even strictly protected areas are subject to a variety of pressures, particularly resource extraction. Results imply that the establishment and enforcement of effective protected areas in each tiger landscape, sufficient to protect and grow breeding tiger populations, could help change current trends. These areas should be free from incompatible land uses, and should be adequately resourced to meet management, enforcement and monitoring challenges. Weaknesses in protected area management identified here have implications for species and ecosystem services that share the same geography as tigers. In addition, results suggest that similar issues may exist for threatened species and protected areas in other geographies as well.

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