The View from the Cape: Extinction Risk, Protected Areas, and Climate Change

Lee, Hannah; Midgley, Guy F.; Hughes, Greg; Bomhard, Bastian

doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2005)055[0231:tvftce]2.0.co;2

Cited by 144 publications

(142 citation statements)

References 39 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

139

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…60 Other studies assessing the impacts of future climate change in the CFR also predicted an eastward directional shift and concluded that this shift will lead to large-scale spatial mismatches with current protected areas portfolio. 61 The predicted range shifts and associated impacts are expected to result in as much as 50% loss in current climate space 62 and as much as 10% of the endemic plant species. 63 In addition, we found that the CFR amphibian community has lost ≈56% of its suitable climate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the effects of climate change on distributions of Cape Floristic Region amphibians

Mokhatla¹,

Rödder²,

Measey³

2015

S. Afr. J. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climatic changes have had profound impacts on species distributions throughout time. In response, species have shifted ranges, adapted genetically and behaviourally or become extinct. Using species distribution models, we examined how changes in suitable climatic space could affect the distributions of 37 endemic frog species in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) – an area proposed to have evolved its megadiversity under a stable climate, which is expected to change substantially in future. Species distributions were projected onto mean climate for a current period (1950 to 2000), hindcasted to palaeoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum; LGM ≈ 21 kya and Holocene Glacial Minimum; HGM ≈ 6 kya) and forecasted for two emissions scenarios (A2a and B2a) for the year 2080. We then determined the changes in area sizes, direction (longitude and latitude), fragmentation index and biotic velocity, and assessed if these were affected by life-history traits and altitude. We found that the biotic velocity at which the CFR amphibian community is expected to shift north (A2a ≈ 540.5 km/kya) and east (B2a ≈ 198 km/kya) far exceeds historical background rates (≈1.05 km/kya, north and west ≈ 2.36 km/kya since the LGM). Our models further suggest that the CFR amphibian community has already lost about 56% of suitable climate space since the LGM and this loss is expected to accelerate under future emission scenarios (A2a ≈ 70%; B2a ≈ 60%). Lastly, we found that highland species were more fragmented than lowland species between the LGM and current period, but that the fragmentation of lowland species between current and future climates is expected to increase.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the effects of climate change on distributions of Cape Floristic Region amphibians

Mokhatla¹,

Rödder²,

Measey³

2015

S. Afr. J. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Armstrong 2009, Tarrant andArmstrong 2013) as well as to predict niche shifts of species due to future climate change (Erasmus et al 2002, Coetzee et al 2009, García-Domínguez et al 2014. Climate change is expected to cause significant biodiversity losses in the future, including in South Africa (Erasmus et al 2002, Thomas et al 2004, Hannah et al 2005, Pereira et al 2010, McCain and Colwell 2011.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past, present, and future distribution of Afromontane rodents (Muridae: Otomys) reflect climate-change predicted biome changes

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change constitutes a potential threat to montane biodiversity, particularly in low-altitude, tropical mountains; however, few data exist for the Afromontane taxa. In South Africa, the temperate grassland and fynbos biomes are mostly associated with the Great Escarpment and the high-lying central plateau. Varying contractions of the grassland and fynbos biomes are predicted under different climate scenarios by 2050. Animal taxa adapted to these biomes should suffer similar range declines and can be used to independently test the vegetation models. We constructed MaxEnt models from 271 unique locality records for three species of montane and submontane vlei rats that are closely associated with grassland angoniensis) due to historically documented changes from a grassland-dominated to thicket-dominated landscape.

show abstract

“…Despite this, a wide range of impacts assessments have been undertaken. 34,[36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43] In order to develop insights beyond those of conservation interest, integrated assessment approaches are needed to enhance relevance for policy formulation and implementation related to land-use and infrastructure planning, and investment decision-making.The latest findings from South Africa's LTAS show that for the wettest and coolest climate scenarios for ∼2050, minor impacts on most biomes are indicated. The biome most under threat of significant structural change, independent of which climate scenario is used, the grassland biome, which could face significant encroachment by woody vegetation due to increased temperatures and rising atmospheric CO 2 .…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts and adaptation in South Africa

Ziervogel

New

Archer

et al. 2014

WIREs Climate Change

Self Cite

262

185

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper we review current approaches and recent advances in research on climate impacts and adaptation in South Africa. South Africa has a well-developed earth system science research program that underpins the climate change scenarios developed for the southern African region. Established research on the biophysical impacts of climate change on key sectors (water, agriculture, and biodiversity) integrates the climate change scenarios but further research is needed in a number of areas, such as the climate impacts on cities and the built environment. National government has developed a National Climate Change Response White Paper, but this has yet to translate into policy that mainstreams adaptation in everyday practice and longer-term planning in all spheres and levels of government. A national process to scope long-term adaptation scenarios is underway, focusing on cross-sectoral linkages in adaptation responses at a national level. Adaptation responses are emerging in certain sectors. Some notable city-scale and project-based adaptation responses have been implemented, but institutional challenges persist. In addition, a number of knowledge gaps remain in relation to the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. A particular need is to develop South Africa's capacity to undertake integrated assessments of climate change that can support climate-resilient development planning. © 2014 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. How to cite this article:WIREs Clim Change 2014Change , 5:605-620. doi: 10.1002 This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes. 4 Responding to these scenarios, policies have been developed, including the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme and more recently National Treasury consideration and planned implementation of carbon taxes. 5,6 Increasingly, however, the issue of climate adaptation is coming to the fore. In the context of South Africa's urgent socio-economic developmental needs and threatened ecosystem services, adaptive responses that reduce vulnerability to current as well as future climate variability and change are critical. Reducing the so-called 'adaptation deficit', that is exposure and sensitivity to the present-day climate variability and observed change, is an important dimension of long-term adaptation planning. 7 Responses at the national level have started to focus on integrated development trajectories more broadly. South Africa's new National Development Plan 2030 8 goes some way toward reframing climate change as a development challenge. Several government departments across all three spheres of government-national, provincial, and local-are now developing climate change strategies and/or plans.To develop a coherent national adaptation response, there is a need to integrate cli...

show abstract

The View from the Cape: Extinction Risk, Protected Areas, and Climate Change

Abstract: BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

Cited by 144 publications

References 39 publications

Assessing the effects of climate change on distributions of Cape Floristic Region amphibians

Assessing the effects of climate change on distributions of Cape Floristic Region amphibians

Past, present, and future distribution of Afromontane rodents (Muridae: Otomys) reflect climate-change predicted biome changes

Climate change impacts and adaptation in South Africa

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About