Central Asian drought has had drastic impacts on vast regions over recent years. Longer records and insight into temporal drought patterns could aid greatly in anticipating extreme events and agrarian planning. Mongolia is representative of the central Asian region, and tree-ring resources are used herein to extend the climate record and test for solar influence and/or Pacific Ocean teleconnections. Absolutely dated tree-ring-width chronologies from five sampling sites in west-central Mongolia were used in precipitation models and an individual model was made using the longest of the five tree-ring records (1340–2002). The tree-ring sites are in or near the Selenge River basin, the largest river in Mongolia and a major input into Lake Baikal in Siberia. Regression models resulted in a reconstruction of streamflow that extends from 1637 to 1997 and explains 49% of the flow variation. Spectral analysis indicated significant variation in the frequencies common to Pacific Ocean variations [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and ENSO] and also some quasi-solar and lunar-nodal periodicities similar to previous Mongolian hydrometeorological reconstructions in eastern Mongolia based on tree rings.

Although many studies have associated the demise of complex societies with deteriorating climate, few have investigated the connection between an ameliorating environment, surplus resources, energy, and the rise of empires. The 13th-century Mongol Empire was the largest contiguous land empire in world history. Although drought has been proposed as one factor that spurred these conquests, no high-resolution moisture data are available during the rapid development of the Mongol Empire. Here we present a 1,112-y tree-ring reconstruction of warm-season water balance derived from Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees in central Mongolia. Our reconstruction accounts for 56% of the variability in the regional water balance and is significantly correlated with steppe productivity across central Mongolia. In combination with a gridded temperature reconstruction, our results indicate that the regional climate during the conquests of Chinggis Khan's (Genghis Khan's) 13th-century Mongol Empire was warm and persistently wet. This period, characterized by 15 consecutive years of aboveaverage moisture in central Mongolia and coinciding with the rise of Chinggis Khan, is unprecedented over the last 1,112 y. We propose that these climate conditions promoted high grassland productivity and favored the formation of Mongol political and military power. Tree-ring and meteorological data also suggest that the early 21st-century drought in central Mongolia was the hottest drought in the last 1,112 y, consistent with projections of warming over Inner Asia. Future warming may overwhelm increases in precipitation leading to similar heat droughts, with potentially severe consequences for modern Mongolia.paleoclimate | dendrochronology | human ecology | Anthropocene | coupled human natural systems

The amount of carbon stored in deadwood is equivalent to about 8% of global forest carbon stocks 1 . Deadwood decomposition is largely governed by climate [2][3][4][5] with decomposer groups, such as microbes and insects, contributing to variations in decomposition rates 2,6,7 . At the global scale, the contribution of insects to deadwood decomposition and carbon release remains poorly understood 7 . Here we present a field experiment of wood decomposition across 55 forest sites on six continents. We find that deadwood decomposition rates increase with temperature, with the strongest temperature effect at high precipitation levels. Precipitation affects decomposition rates negatively at low temperature and positively at high temperatures. As net effect, including direct consumption and indirect effects via interactions with microbes, insects accelerate decomposition in tropical forests (3.9% median mass loss per year).In temperate and boreal forests we find weak positive and negative effects with a median mass loss of 0.9% and -0.1% per year, respectively. Furthermore, we apply the experimentally derived decomposition function to a global map of deadwood carbon synthesised from empirical and remote sensing data. This allows for a first estimate of 10.9 ± 3.2 Pg yr -1 of carbon released from deadwood globally, with 93% originating from tropical forests. Globally, the net effect of insects accounts for a carbon flux of 3.2 ± 0.9 Pg yr -1 or 29% of the total carbon released from deadwood, which highlights the functional importance of insects for deadwood decomposition and the global carbon cycle.

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Recent incidences of mass livestock mortality, known as dzud, have called into question the sustainability of pastoral nomadic herding, the cornerstone of Mongolian culture. A total of 20 million head of livestock perished in the mortality events of 2000-2002, and 2009-2010. To mitigate the effects of such events on the lives of herders, international agencies such as the World Bank are taking increasing interest in developing tailored market-based solutions like index-insurance. Their ultimate success depends on understanding the historical context and underlying causes of mortality. In this paper we examine mortality in 21 Mongolian aimags (provinces) between 1955 and 2013 in order to explain its density independent cause(s) related to climate variability. We show that livestock mortality is most strongly linked to winter (November-February) temperatures, with incidences of mass mortality being most likely to occur because of an anomalously cold winter. Additionally, we find prior summer (July-September) drought and precipitation deficit to be important triggers for mortality that intensifies the effect of upcoming winter temperatures on livestock. Our density independent mortality model based on winter temperature, summer drought, summer precipitation, and summer potential evaporanspiration explains 48.4% of the total variability in the mortality dataset. The Mongolian index based livestock insurance program uses a threshold of 6% mortality to trigger payouts. We find that on average for Mongolia, the probability of exceedance of 6% mortality in any given year is 26% over the 59 year period between 1955 and 2013.

Mongolian tree rings indicate that recent moisture extremes, although unusual, are not unprecedented in the last 2060 years.

Tree-ring records can provide longer, high-resolution records of climate variability in remote regions such as western Mongolia, where recorded data are extremely limited. Here, we use three absolutely dated tree-ring-width chronologies to reconstruct the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for a grid point in western Mongolia (48.75°N, 88.75°W). A reconstruction of the June-September PDSI for this region extends from 1565 to 2003 and explains 41% of the total variance in the instrumental PDSI. The 439-year reconstruction shows that starting in the 20th Century and continuing into the 21st Century there is a large-scale regional increase in growing-season moisture conditions compared to the prior centuries, a trend not seen in central or eastern Mongolian tree-ring reconstructions. This increasing trend in western Mongolia is consistent with station observations and other nearby proxy records. The wettest 5-year period of the reconstruction is 1741-1745 followed by 1993-1997, and the driest period is 1755-1759, followed by 1882-1886. Spectral analysis shows significant periodicities at approximately 22, 11, 7 and 5 years. The reconstruction shows similar trends to a PDSI reconstruction from NW China during the 20th Century and also correlates with lake-level data from nearby Khar-Us Nuur, Mongolia.

Warming over Mongolia and adjacent Central Asia has been unusually rapid over the past few decades, 19particularly in the summer, with surface temperature anomalies higher than for much of the globe. With few 20 temperature station records available in this remote region prior to the 1950s, paleoclimatic data must be used to 21 understand annual-to-centennial scale climate variability, to local response to large-scale forcing mechanisms, and