Past and future drought in Mongolia

Hessl, Amy; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Jelsema, Casey; Cook, Benjamin I.; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Leland, Caroline; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Pederson, Neil; Tian, Hanqin; Andreu‐Hayles, Laia

doi:10.1126/sciadv.1701832

Cited by 108 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…We found that climate‐induced increase in NEP amplitude in the 1980s and 1990s was mainly caused by elevated C sink (i.e., increased maximum NEP) and reduced C source (i.e., declined minimum NEP). It implies a faster C accumulation that likely resulted from the combination of wetter and cooler summers during those two decades, for example, the previously identified 1990s pluvial (Hessl et al, ). However, the increased NEP amplitude in the 2000s was attributed to the reduced C sink and enhanced C source (i.e., reduced maximum NEP and increased minimum NEP; Figure a), reflecting a faster C depletion due to the recent‐decade drought (Figure ).…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 99%

Severe Long‐Lasting Drought Accelerated Carbon Depletion in the Mongolian Plateau

Lü

Tian

Zhang

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Paleoclimate records identified a severe drought lasting approximately a decade on the Mongolian Plateau during the 2000s, the severity of which was only exceeded by a single drought during the last two millennia. Under high‐emission scenarios, arid and semiarid areas are projected to continue to experience a drying trend over the coming decades; therefore, understanding how ecosystems respond to long‐lasting drought has global implications. Here we used a process‐based ecosystem model to examine the interannual and intra‐annual variations in net ecosystem productivity in response to climate extremes across the Mongolian Plateau. We find that the recent‐decade drought caused Mongolian terrestrial ecosystems to shift from a carbon (C) sink to a C source, canceling 40% of climate‐induced C accumulation over the entire twentieth century. Our study details a shortened C sequestering season, increased summer C source, and accelerated C depletion during the 2000s drought.

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Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 99%

Severe Long‐Lasting Drought Accelerated Carbon Depletion in the Mongolian Plateau

Lü

Tian

Zhang

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…Thus, we use simulated soil moisture anomalies, integrated over all soil layers that are hydrologically active in each of the models, as a surrogate for scPDSI (SOM). However, we recognize that soil moisture and scPDSI are not fully interchangeable variables (Lehner et al 2017), and that they may behave differently under strong climatic forcing (Berg et al 2017), which is likely of minor importance for the past millennium (Hessl et al 2018).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 89%

European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE

Ljungqvist

Seim

Krusic

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature-hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, with a dipole emerging between positive (warm and wet) and negative (warm and dry) associations in northern and southern Europe, respectively. Compared to instrumental data, models reveal a more negative co-variability across all timescales, while reconstructions exhibit a more positive co-variability. Despite the observed differences in the temperature-hydroclimate covariability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, we find that all data types share relatively similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, indicating the common influence of external forcing. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture OPEN ACCESS RECEIVED

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“…However, not all studies predict such alarming scenarios. In their reconstruction and projection of past and future droughts, Hessl et al (2018) conclude that the recent extreme drought (in 2000) and pluvial (in 1990) are very rare, but not without precedent in the last 2060 years. Based on comprehensive dendrochronological studies, Slemnev et al (2012) concluded that spurts of forest regeneration in Mongolia coincide with especially moist periods that occur approximately every 40-100 years.…”

Section: Challenge 1: Adaptation To and Mitigation Of Global Warming-mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest Management In Mongolia – A Review Of Challenges And Lessons Learned With Special Reference To Degradation And Deforestation

Gradel

Sukhbaatar

Karthe³

et al. 2019

GES

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The natural conditions, climate change and socio-economic challenges related to the transformation from a socialistic society towards a market-driven system make the implementation of sustainable land management practices in Mongolia especially complicated. Forests play an important role in land management. In addition to providing resources and ecosystem functions, Mongolian forests protect against land degradation.GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY 03 (12) 2019

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Past and future drought in Mongolia

Abstract: Mongolian tree rings indicate that recent moisture extremes, although unusual, are not unprecedented in the last 2060 years.

Cited by 108 publications

References 43 publications

Severe Long‐Lasting Drought Accelerated Carbon Depletion in the Mongolian Plateau

Severe Long‐Lasting Drought Accelerated Carbon Depletion in the Mongolian Plateau

European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE

Forest Management In Mongolia – A Review Of Challenges And Lessons Learned With Special Reference To Degradation And Deforestation

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