Although many studies have associated the demise of complex societies with deteriorating climate, few have investigated the connection between an ameliorating environment, surplus resources, energy, and the rise of empires. The 13th-century Mongol Empire was the largest contiguous land empire in world history. Although drought has been proposed as one factor that spurred these conquests, no high-resolution moisture data are available during the rapid development of the Mongol Empire. Here we present a 1,112-y tree-ring reconstruction of warm-season water balance derived from Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees in central Mongolia. Our reconstruction accounts for 56% of the variability in the regional water balance and is significantly correlated with steppe productivity across central Mongolia. In combination with a gridded temperature reconstruction, our results indicate that the regional climate during the conquests of Chinggis Khan's (Genghis Khan's) 13th-century Mongol Empire was warm and persistently wet. This period, characterized by 15 consecutive years of aboveaverage moisture in central Mongolia and coinciding with the rise of Chinggis Khan, is unprecedented over the last 1,112 y. We propose that these climate conditions promoted high grassland productivity and favored the formation of Mongol political and military power. Tree-ring and meteorological data also suggest that the early 21st-century drought in central Mongolia was the hottest drought in the last 1,112 y, consistent with projections of warming over Inner Asia. Future warming may overwhelm increases in precipitation leading to similar heat droughts, with potentially severe consequences for modern Mongolia.paleoclimate | dendrochronology | human ecology | Anthropocene | coupled human natural systems
Central Asian drought has had drastic impacts on vast regions over recent years. Longer records and insight into temporal drought patterns could aid greatly in anticipating extreme events and agrarian planning. Mongolia is representative of the central Asian region, and tree-ring resources are used herein to extend the climate record and test for solar influence and/or Pacific Ocean teleconnections. Absolutely dated tree-ring-width chronologies from five sampling sites in west-central Mongolia were used in precipitation models and an individual model was made using the longest of the five tree-ring records (1340–2002). The tree-ring sites are in or near the Selenge River basin, the largest river in Mongolia and a major input into Lake Baikal in Siberia. Regression models resulted in a reconstruction of streamflow that extends from 1637 to 1997 and explains 49% of the flow variation. Spectral analysis indicated significant variation in the frequencies common to Pacific Ocean variations [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and ENSO] and also some quasi-solar and lunar-nodal periodicities similar to previous Mongolian hydrometeorological reconstructions in eastern Mongolia based on tree rings.
The amount of carbon stored in deadwood is equivalent to about 8% of global forest carbon stocks 1 . Deadwood decomposition is largely governed by climate [2][3][4][5] with decomposer groups, such as microbes and insects, contributing to variations in decomposition rates 2,6,7 . At the global scale, the contribution of insects to deadwood decomposition and carbon release remains poorly understood 7 . Here we present a field experiment of wood decomposition across 55 forest sites on six continents. We find that deadwood decomposition rates increase with temperature, with the strongest temperature effect at high precipitation levels. Precipitation affects decomposition rates negatively at low temperature and positively at high temperatures. As net effect, including direct consumption and indirect effects via interactions with microbes, insects accelerate decomposition in tropical forests (3.9% median mass loss per year).In temperate and boreal forests we find weak positive and negative effects with a median mass loss of 0.9% and -0.1% per year, respectively. Furthermore, we apply the experimentally derived decomposition function to a global map of deadwood carbon synthesised from empirical and remote sensing data. This allows for a first estimate of 10.9 ± 3.2 Pg yr -1 of carbon released from deadwood globally, with 93% originating from tropical forests. Globally, the net effect of insects accounts for a carbon flux of 3.2 ± 0.9 Pg yr -1 or 29% of the total carbon released from deadwood, which highlights the functional importance of insects for deadwood decomposition and the global carbon cycle.
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