In 1986, a survey of young adults aged 14-24 in Harare, Zimbabwe obtained information about their knowledge, attitudes, and sexual behavior. Most adolescent childbearing took place within marriage, although sexual intercourse was generally initiated before marriage. Knowledge of family planning was high, but contraceptive use lagged behind knowledge. Fewer than half of the respondents had talked to an elder about family planning, sex, or pregnancy. Fourteen percent of young women who were unmarried at the time of first intercourse used contraceptives, compared to 18 percent of young unmarried men. Current contraceptive use among sexually active unmarried youths was 36 percent among women and 29 percent among men. One consequence of low contraceptive use was a high number of unwanted premarital pregnancies. Twenty-nine percent of the women had been pregnant; those not married at the time they got pregnant generally got married soon after. Of the girls who got pregnant while in school, 90 percent had to drop out of school. A second consequence of low contraceptive use is an increased risk of transmission of STDs and AIDS among the youth of Harare.
Recent studies by Adelman and by Friedlander and Silver, which have investigated whether regression equations derived from cross-section data can be used to predict the impact of socioeconomic development on changing levels of fertility, are reviewed critically. Regression analyses based on data for 57 countries c. 1960 show that fertility (gross reproduction rate) varies cross-sectionally with region as well as with level of development (as measured by per capita income, percent labor force in primary sector, expectation of life, illiteracy rate). Using equations derived from the cross-section study and time-series data for five European countries during the period that their fertility rates fell, it is shown that predictions about past fertility changes are in error. The results suggest caution in the use of cross-section relations to predict the course of fertility in developing countries.
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