An empirical study of the effects of socioeconomic development on fertility rates

Abstract

Recent studies by Adelman and by Friedlander and Silver, which have investigated whether regression equations derived from cross-section data can be used to predict the impact of socioeconomic development on changing levels of fertility, are reviewed critically. Regression analyses based on data for 57 countries c. 1960 show that fertility (gross reproduction rate) varies cross-sectionally with region as well as with level of development (as measured by per capita income, percent labor force in primary sector, expectation of life, illiteracy rate). Using equations derived from the cross-section study and time-series data for five European countries during the period that their fertility rates fell, it is shown that predictions about past fertility changes are in error. The results suggest caution in the use of cross-section relations to predict the course of fertility in developing countries.

Socioeconomic development, infant mortality and fertility: A cross‐sectional and longitudinal analysis of 63 selected countries

“…Using the theory of demographic transition as a basic theoretical framework, numerous studies [Adelman, 1963;Ekanem, 1972;Friedland and Silver, 1967;Gregory et al, 1973;Heer, 1966;Janowitz, 1971;Janowitz, 1973;Kamerschen, 1971;Oechsli and Kirk, 1975;Russett, 1964;Weintraub, 1962] have investigated the relationships between fertility changes and demographic, economic, and social development. However, the findings of previous studies are not conclusive as to how demographic, economic, and social changes affect fertility.…”

Macroscopic analysis of human fertility: theoretical methodological assessments

“…group. Such a problem has been frequently reported in demographic research (e.g., Friedlander and Silver, 1967;Janowitz, 1971;Ekanem, 1972;Beaver, 1975;Chang and Pendleton, 1978). In this study, homogeneous cultural groups of developing countries have been analyzed to avoid this statistical problem.…”

“…A number of studies have found a statistically strong positive causal link between infant mortality and different measures of fertility (Weintraub, 1962:816, Bhattacharyya, 1975Massey and Tedrow, 1976:435;Som, 1978:16;Glassman and Ross, 1978:197). Other studies did not find consistent patterns of causation between infant mortality and fertility measures (Friedlander and Silver, 1967:53;Anker, 1978:68;Janowitz, 1971Janowitz, , 1973bGregory et al, 1973:236-240). Moreover, some studies did not find any significant support for the relationship (Ekanem, 1972;Janowitz, 1973a;Beaver, 1975;Hohm, 1975;Chang et al, 1979;Chang and Pendleton, 1978).…”

“…In empirical studies and in cross-section analysis, Janowitz (1971), using different regions and controlling socioeconomic variables, finds that fertility rates vary with the region's cultural heritage. Ekanem (1972), using a sample of 41 countries for purposes of analysis, compares three different results: the overall sample, developing countries, and developed countries in the sample.…”

“…Furthermore, some demographers (e.g., Janowitz, 1971;Beaver, 1975) Finally, I particularly would like to express my apprecia tion to my wife, Nahed, and our daughter, Eman to whom the dissertation is dedicated. (1974,1975,1976) and Encyclopedia Britannica (1972) UNESCO (1978), United Nations (1974) UNESCO (1975,1976) UNESCO (1975,1976) UNESCO (1975,1976) UNESCO (1974,1975,1976) …”