[1] We investigate the effect of extended faulting processes and heterogeneous wave propagation on the early warning system capability to predict the peak ground velocity (PGV) from moderate to large earthquakes occurring in the southern Apennines (Italy). Simulated time histories at the early warning network have been used to retrieve early estimates of source parameters and to predict the PGV, following an evolutionary, probabilistic approach. The system performance is measured through the Effective Lead-Time (ELT), i.e., the time interval between the arrival of the first S-wave and the time at which the probability to observe the true PGV value within one standard deviation becomes stationary, and the Probability of Prediction Error (PPE), which provides a measure of PGV prediction error. The regional maps of ELT and PPE show a significant variability around the fault up to large distances, thus indicating that the system's capability to accurately predict the observed peak ground motion strongly depends on distance and azimuth from the fault.
Automated location of seismic events is a very important task in microseismic monitoring operations as well for local and regional seismic monitoring. Since microseismic records are generally characterized by low signal-to-noise ratio, automated location methods are requested to be noise robust and sufficiently accurate. Most of the standard automated location routines are based on the automated picking, identification and association of the first arrivals of P and S waves and on the minimization of the residuals between theoretical and observed arrival times of the considered seismic phases. Although current methods can accurately pick P onsets, the automatic picking of the S onset is still problematic, especially when the P coda overlaps the S wave onset. In this paper, we propose a picking free earthquake location method based on the use of the short-term-average/long-term-average (STA/LTA) traces at different stations as observed data. For the P phases, we use the STA/LTA traces of the vertical energy function, whereas for the S phases, we use the STA/LTA traces of a second characteristic function, which is obtained using the principal component analysis technique. In order to locate the seismic event, we scan the space of possible hypocentral locations and origin times, and stack the STA/LTA traces along the theoretical arrival time surface for both P and S phases. Iterating this procedure on a 3-D grid, we retrieve a multidimensional matrix whose absolute maximum corresponds to the spatial coordinates of the seismic event. A pilot application was performed in the Campania-Lucania region (southern Italy) using a seismic network (Irpinia Seismic Network) with an aperture of about 150 km. We located 196 crustal earthquakes (depth < 20 km) with magnitude range 1.1 < M L < 2.7. A subset of these locations were compared with accurate manual locations refined by using a double-difference technique. Our results indicate a good agreement with manual locations. Moreover, our method is noise robust and performs better than classical location methods based on the automatic picking of the P and S waves first arrivals.
In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in a previouswork through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza. The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. The latter is obtained from the statistical analysis of the synthetic waveform database produced for a large number of possible rupture histories occurring on the characteristic earthquake fault. The method has been applied to a hazard evaluation in the Umbria region, where the threat is represented by a fault having the same geometry and mechanism as the 26 September 1997, Colfiorito earthquake (central Italy; moment magnitude, M w 6).
The Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet) is deployed in Southern Apennines along the active fault system responsible for the 1980, November 23, MS 6.9 Campania鈥揕ucania earthquake. It is set up by 28 stations and covers an area of about 100 脳 70 km2. Each site is equipped with a 1-g full-scale accelerometer and a short period velocimeter. Due to its design characteristics, i.e., the wide dynamic range and the high density of stations, the ISNet network is mainly devoted to estimating in real-time the earthquake location and magnitude from low- to high- magnitude events, and to providing ground-motion parameters values so to get some insights about the ground shaking expected. Moreover, the availability of highquality of data allows studying the source processes related to the seismogenetic structures in the area. The network layout, the data communication system and protocols and the main instrumental features are described in the paper. The data analysis is managed by Earthworm software package that also provides the earthquake location while custom software has been developed for real-time computation of the source parameters and shaking maps. Technical details about these procedures are given in the article. The data collected at the ISNet stations are available upon request
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