S U M M A R YMost earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) developed so far are conceived as either 'regional' (network-based) or 'on-site' (stand-alone) systems. The recent implementation of nationwide, high dynamic range, dense accelerometer arrays makes now available, potentially in real time, unsaturated waveforms of moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes recorded at very short epicentral distances (<10-20 km). This would allow for a drastic increase of the early warning lead-time, for example, the time between the alert notification and the arrival time of potentially destructive waves at a given target site. By analysing strong motion data from modern accelerograph networks in Japan, Taiwan and Italy, we propose an integrated regional/on-site early warning method, which can be used in the very first seconds after a moderate-to-large earthquake to map the most probable damaged zones. The method is based on the real-time measurement of the period (τ c ) and peak displacement (Pd) parameters at stations located at increasing distances from the earthquake epicentre. The recorded values of early warning parameters are compared to threshold values, which are set for a minimum magnitude 6 and instrumental intensity VII, according to the empirical regression analyses of strong motion data. At each recording site the alert level is assigned based on a decisional table with four alert levels defined upon critical values of the parameters Pd and τ c , which are set according to the error bounds estimated on the derived prediction equations. Given a real time, evolutionary estimation of earthquake location from first P arrivals, the method furnishes an estimation of the extent of potential damage zone as inferred from continuously updated averages of the period parameter and from mapping of the alert levels determined at the near-source accelerometer stations. The off-line application of the method to strong motion records of the Mw 6.3, 2009 Central Italy earthquake shows a very consistent match between the rapidly predicted (within a few seconds from the first recorded P wave) and observed damage zone, the latter being mapped from detailed macroseismic surveys a few days after the event. The proposed approach is suitable for Italy, where, during the last two decades, a dense network of wide dynamic-range accelerometer arrays has been deployed by the Department of Civil Protection (DPC), the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and other regional research agencies.

A picture of the upper crustal structure of the Irpinia active faults system in southern Italy was obtained by combining new geological evidences, lithological properties, and microseismicity distribution. P and S wave velocity models indicate high V P /V S and low V P × V S values, suggesting fluid accumulation within ã 15 km wide rock volume where intense microseismicity is located. The 1980 Irpinia, M s 6.9, earthquake nucleated within the same fault-bounded volume. We suggest that concentration of background seismicity is mainly controlled by high pore fluid pressure. Its increase in fluid-filled cracks around major faults leads to earthquakes' nucleation. Seismic pumping along major faults carries fluids through the conduit system represented by the intensely fractured damage zone. Conversely, the cross-fault barrier behavior of the low-permeability fault core leads to pore fluid pressures building up within the fault-bounded block, thus producing a positive feedback triggering earthquake nucleation within the volume, which behaves as an "earthquake reservoir."

Triggered seismicity in karst regions has been explained assuming the existence of a hydraulically connected fracture system and downward diffusion of surface pore pressures. Karst systems are, in fact, able to swiftly channel large amount of rainfall through networks of conduits increasing the hydraulic head loading upon the fluid‐saturated, poroelastic crust. Here we use Global Positioning System and hydrological and seismicity data to show that poroelastic strain in the shallow crust (0–3.5 km) controls seasonal and multiannual modulation of seismicity along the Irpinia Fault Zone (Southern Italy) without requiring a hydraulically connected fracture system from the surface to hypocentral depths. We suggest that groundwater recharge of karst aquifers along the Irpinia Fault Zone produces stress perturbations large enough to modulate strain accumulation and seismicity and temporarily modify the probability of nucleation of seismic events such as the 1980 Irpinia, MS 6.9, earthquake.

Automated location of seismic events is a very important task in microseismic monitoring operations as well for local and regional seismic monitoring. Since microseismic records are generally characterized by low signal-to-noise ratio, automated location methods are requested to be noise robust and sufficiently accurate. Most of the standard automated location routines are based on the automated picking, identification and association of the first arrivals of P and S waves and on the minimization of the residuals between theoretical and observed arrival times of the considered seismic phases. Although current methods can accurately pick P onsets, the automatic picking of the S onset is still problematic, especially when the P coda overlaps the S wave onset. In this paper, we propose a picking free earthquake location method based on the use of the short-term-average/long-term-average (STA/LTA) traces at different stations as observed data. For the P phases, we use the STA/LTA traces of the vertical energy function, whereas for the S phases, we use the STA/LTA traces of a second characteristic function, which is obtained using the principal component analysis technique. In order to locate the seismic event, we scan the space of possible hypocentral locations and origin times, and stack the STA/LTA traces along the theoretical arrival time surface for both P and S phases. Iterating this procedure on a 3-D grid, we retrieve a multidimensional matrix whose absolute maximum corresponds to the spatial coordinates of the seismic event. A pilot application was performed in the Campania-Lucania region (southern Italy) using a seismic network (Irpinia Seismic Network) with an aperture of about 150 km. We located 196 crustal earthquakes (depth < 20 km) with magnitude range 1.1 < M L < 2.7. A subset of these locations were compared with accurate manual locations refined by using a double-difference technique. Our results indicate a good agreement with manual locations. Moreover, our method is noise robust and performs better than classical location methods based on the automatic picking of the P and S waves first arrivals.

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We retrieve 3‐D attenuation images of the crustal volume embedding the fault system associated with the destructive Ms 6.9, 1980 Irpinia earthquake by tomographic inversion of t* measurements. A high QP anomaly is found to be correlated with the 1980 fault geometry, while the QS model shows regional‐scale variations related to the NE edge of the uplifted pre‐Tertiary limestone. An upscaling strategy is used to infer rock properties such as porosity, consolidation, type of fluid mixing, and relative saturation percentage at 8–10 km fault depth. We constrain the porosity and consolidation in the ranges 4–5% and 5–9, respectively, with the possible fluid mixes being both brine‐CO2 and CH4‐CO2. The consolidation parameter range indicates high pore pressures at the same depths. These results support the evidence for a fracture system, highly saturated in gases and a seismicity triggering mechanism at the fault zone, which is strongly controlled by fluid‐induced pore pressure changes.

Seismic tomography can be used to image the spatial variation of rock properties within complex geological media such as volcanoes. Solfatara is a volcano located within the Campi Flegrei, a still active caldera, so it is of major importance to characterize its level of activity and potential danger. In this light, a 3D tomographic high-resolution P-wave velocity image of the shallow central part of Solfatara crater is obtained using first arrival times and a multiscale approach. The retrieved images, integrated with the resistivity section and temperature and the CO2 flux measurements, define the following characteristics: 1. A depth-dependent P-wave velocity layer down to 14 m, with Vp < 700 m/s typical of poorly-consolidated tephra and affected by CO2 degassing; 2. An intermediate layer, deepening towards the mineralized liquid-saturated area (Fangaia), interpreted as permeable deposits saturated with condensed water; 3. A deep, confined high velocity anomaly associated with a CO2 reservoir. These features are expression of an area located between the Fangaia, water saturated and replenished from deep aquifers, and the main fumaroles, superficial relief of the deep rising CO2 flux. Therefore, the changes in the outgassing rate greatly affect the shallow hydrothermal system, which can be used as a “mirror” of fluid migration processes occurring at depth.

Most of existing earthquake early-warning systems are regional or on-site systems. A new concept is the integration of these approaches for the definition of alert levels and the estimation of the earthquake potential damage zone (PDZ). The key element of the method is the real-time, simultaneous measurement of initial peak displacement (P d ) and period parameter (τ c ) in a 3-s window after the first P-wave arrival time at accelerometer stations located at increasing distances from the epicenter. As for the on-site approach, the recorded values of P d and τ c are compared to threshold values, which are set for a minimum magnitude M 6 and instrumental intensity I MM VII, according to empirical regression analysis of strong-motion data from different seismic regions. At each recording site the alert level is assigned based on a decisional table with four entries defined by threshold values of the parameters P d and τ c . A regional network of stations provides the event location and transmits the information about the alert levels recorded at near-source stations to more distant sites, before the arrival of the most destructive phase.We present the results of performance tests of this method using ten M >6 Japanese earthquakes that occurred in the period 2000-2009 and propose a very robust methodology for mapping the PDZ in the first seconds after a moderate-to-large earthquake. The studied cases displayed a very good matching between the rapidly predicted earthquake PDZ inferred from initial P-peak displacement amplitudes and the instrumental intensity map, the latter being mapped after the event, using peak ground velocity and/or acceleration, or from field macroseismic surveys.Online Material: Animated GIF files of simulations of the threshold-based method.