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European countries have experienced strong heat waves over the last two decades. The frequency and magnitude of such extreme weather events are expected to increase in the near future. Using an interdisciplinary approach, which combines meteorological, epidemiological and economic analyses, we assess the cost of heat-induced reductions in outdoor worker productivity in Europe caused by the heat waves in August of 2003, July of 2010, and July of 2015. We found that for the top ten most affected European countries, average direct economic losses in agriculture accounted for $59-90 per worker and for construction, it was $41-72 per worker. Direct economic losses were especially high in countries, such as Cyprus, Italy, and Spain. Social costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity in agriculture and construction account for an average of $2-3 per capita.

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Water scarcity is an increasing problem in many parts of the world and the management of water has become an important issue on the political economy agenda in many countries. As water is used in most economic activities and the allocation of water is often a complex problem involving different economic agents and sectors, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models have been proven useful to analyze water allocation problems, although their adaptation to include water is still relatively undeveloped. This paper provides a description of an integrated water-focused CGE model (STAGE_W) that includes multiple types and uses of water, and for the first time, the reclamation of wastewater as well as the provision of brackish groundwater as separate, independent activities with specific cost structures. The insights provided by the model are illustrated with an application to the Israeli water sector assuming that freshwater resources available to the economy are cut by 50%. We analyze how the Israeli economy copes with this shock if it reduces potable water supply compared with further investments in the desalination sector. The results demonstrate that the effects on the economy are slightly negative under both scenarios. Counter intuitively, the provision of additional potable water to the economy through desalination does not substantively reduce the negative outcomes. This is mainly due to the high costs of desalination, which are currently subsidized, with the distribution of the negative welfare effect over household groups dependent on how these subsidies are financed.

Anomalous seasons such as extremely cold winters or low wind summers can seriously disrupt renewable energy productivity and reliability. Better seasonal forecasts providing more accurate information tailored to stakeholder needs can help the renewable energy industry prepare for such extremes. The climate mitigation benefits of clean energy come with great challenges. Compared to conventional fossil-fuel based energy sources, renewable sources, such as wind, solar, and hydropower, are highly weather-dependent. Ambitious mitigation policies aiming to reach a 1.5°C target require a radical increase in supplies of clean energy. This implies that total power supply will be more vulnerable to climate-induced weather variability. Balancing the demand and supply of intermittent renewable energy sources thus imposes a big challenge. Consequently, renewable energy technologies must become more resilient to climate variability and high impact events. Weather and climate variability affect the demand as well as supplies of renewable energy. High and low temperatures imply a high energy demand for cooling and heating, respectively 1. The relationship between electricity consumption and temperature is non-linear 2 : at a certain threshold level, an increase in temperatures results in a step increase in energy demand for cooling in summer. For

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The Earth system and the human system are intrinsically linked. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have led to the climate crisis, which is causing unprecedented extreme events and could trigger Earth system tipping elements. Physical and social forces can lead to tipping points and cascading effects via feedbacks and telecoupling, but the current generation of climate-economy models do not generally take account of these interactions and feedbacks. Here, we show the importance of the interplay between human societies and Earth systems in creating tipping points and cascading effects and the way they in turn affect sustainability and security. The lack of modeling of these links can lead to an underestimation of climate and societal risks as well as how societal tipping points can be harnessed to moderate physical impacts. This calls for the systematic development of models for a better integration and understanding of Earth and human systems at different spatial and temporal scales, specifically those that enable decision-making to reduce the likelihood of crossing local or global tipping points.