Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: cascading effects and telecoupling

Franzke, Christian; Ciullo, Alessio; Gilmore, Elisabeth A.; Matias, Denise Margaret; Nagabhatla, Nidhi; Orlov, Anton; Paterson, Shona; Scheffran, Jürgen; Sillmann, Jana

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac42fd

Cited by 60 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 87 publications

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“…The ecological transition requires society not only to find new technological solutions or new resources for energy supply but also to rethink philosophical and ethical frameworks, guarantee a future for humankind on this planet and reduce the likelihood of crossing local or global tipping points [52]. In this realm, the competencies of future scientists (including geoscientists) will be decidedly different from those of today: their real impact on society will depend on how much they will be able to share an inter-and trans-disciplinary point of view with other stakeholders [53], in order to understand the growing complexity of global challenges [54].…”

Section: Conclusion and Future Insightsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are We Ready for a Sustainable Development? A Survey among Young Geoscientists in Italy

et al. 2022

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The United Nations 2030 Agenda is a plan designed to encourage prosperity that is respectful of the planet and its inhabitants. The Agenda will help introduce the concept of education for sustainability (EfS) to a wider population in order to promote inter- and trans-disciplinary knowledge about sustainability. Connecting Earth Sciences (ES) with sustainability allows us to deal with the ethical dimensions and the social implications of this field. The belief is that improving the delivery of knowledge around sustainability issues will make visible the potential of ES education as a key component of EfS. The aim of this paper is to understand whether the young Italian ES community has sufficient knowledge of and a shared interest in, sustainability. The conviction is that awareness of these topics among the younger generations is fundamental to building a new pedagogical paradigm. This study shows the results of a survey taken by participants of BeGeo 2021, the Italian national congress dedicated to young geoscientists, held in Napoli in October 2021. The majority of respondents had limited knowledge about sustainability, and only a few had attended academic activities that included these topics. Nonetheless, the importance of sustainability is well recognized and there is a great need to increase the number of activities connected to EfS.

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Section: Conclusion and Future Insightsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are We Ready for a Sustainable Development? A Survey among Young Geoscientists in Italy

et al. 2022

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“…Moreover, atmospheric phenomena with a long characteristic time scale are usually also characterized by a large spatial extent [11,12], potentially leading to systemic risk [13]. In general, the occurrence of extremes of surprisingly large magnitude might be indicative of an approaching critical transition [14,15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

Lucarini

Gálfi

Messori

et al. 2023

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Elucidating the statistical properties of extreme meteo-climatic events and capturing the physical processes responsible for their occurrence are key steps for improving our understanding of climate variability and climate change and for better evaluating the associated hazards. It has recently become apparent that large deviation theory is very useful for investigating persistent extreme events, and specifically, for flexibly estimating long return periods and for introducing a notion of dynamical typicality. Using a methodological framework based on large deviation theory and taking advantage of long simulations by a state-of-the-art Earth System Model, we investigate the 2021 North America Heatwave. Indeed, our analysis shows that the 2021 event can be seen as an unlikely but possible manifestation of climate variability, whilst its probability of occurrence is greatly amplified by the ongoing climate change. We also clarify the properties of spatial coherence of the 2021 heatwave and elucidate the role played by the Rocky Mountains in modulating hot, dry, and persistent extreme events in the Western Pacific region of North America.

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“…Then the same data were studied with basic statistical analyses (mean, maximumphrea, minimum). Moreover, trends and slopes of the data series were calculated with the ProUCL software (Singh et al 2007) using the nonparametrical Mann-Kendall (Kendall 1955;Mann 1945) and the Theil-Sen (Sen 1968) methods, as also performed in previous similar works (Franzke et al 2022;Helsel et al 2020;Mancini et al 2022;Yue and Wang 2002).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate impact assessment to the groundwater levels based on long time-series analysis in a paddy field area (Piedmont region, NW Italy): preliminary results

Egidio¹,

Lasagna²,

Mancini³

et al. 2022

AS-ITJGW

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The analysis of the time-series of groundwater level are extremely important to observe the behaviours of groundwater over time and to identify any critical situations. The studied area is an agricultural district characterised by paddy fields, located in the eastern part of Piedmont, on the border with Lombardy. In this area long time-series of groundwater level, starting from the 1960s, have been collected in 16 wells. Water table data have a good completeness (in the majority of the cases >90%). Firstly, the groundwater hydrodynamic behaviour, based on water table levels, was investigated to highlight the response of groundwater to the recharge. A basic statistical analysis was performed (mean, median, standard deviation, maximum, minima), and then trends of water table levels were evaluated in order to better observe the long-term behaviour of groundwater. These analyses allowed to observe a groundwater hydrodynamic behaviour characterised by a repeating annual pattern (minimum in February/March and maximum in August/September) in correspondence to the period of irrigation. Moreover, trend analysis highlighted the presence of both wells with a decreasing water table (with maximum lowering of 4.3 m in 60 years) and wells with an increasing water table (with maximum rises of 2.8 m in 35 years). Furthermore, in most cases, it can be observed that all three trends analysed agree on being positive or negative. Future insights will be the comparison of these long time-series with the meteorological data, and the investigation of other factors (e.g. anthropic withdrawal, variations of cultivation practices and irrigation, geology of the subsoil) to better understand the causes of the water table fluctuations and trends.

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Perspectives on tipping points in integrated models of the natural and human Earth system: cascading effects and telecoupling

Cited by 60 publications

References 87 publications

Are We Ready for a Sustainable Development? A Survey among Young Geoscientists in Italy

Are We Ready for a Sustainable Development? A Survey among Young Geoscientists in Italy

Typicality of the 2021 Western North America summer heatwave

Climate impact assessment to the groundwater levels based on long time-series analysis in a paddy field area (Piedmont region, NW Italy): preliminary results

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