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Climate change is likely to have an impact on runoff and fluvial sediments in watersheds. These factors are among those used to characterize water bodies in relation to the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Hence, it is important to investigate the extent to which climate change may hinder the achievement of the objectives of the WFD. We explored the potential impact of climate change on runoff and sediment yield for the Aixola watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model calibration (2007-2010) and validation (2005-2006) results were rated as satisfactory. Subsequently, simulations were run for four climate change model-scenario combinations based on two general circulation models (CGCM2 and ECHAM4) under two emissions scenarios (A2 and B2) from 2011 to 2100. All combinations predicted that runoff and sediment yield would decrease compared with baseline (1961-1990). Three combinations suggested that runoff and sediments would decrease by 0.13 to 0.45 m s and 0.11 to 0.43 t every year from 2011 to 2100. However, the CGCM2-B2 scenario resulted in an "extremely likely" increase in runoff and sediments of 0.94 m s and 0.57 t every year. These variations in annual sediment yield are closely related to changes in precipitation. The high degree of uncertainty in the results must be considered when assessing potential impacts and making decisions about adaptation measures. Nevertheless, this first attempt to estimate future sediment yields in our region could be a useful starting point to explore future hydrological impacts in the area.

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Precipitation has been recognized as one of the main factors driving soil erosion and sediment yield (SY), and its spatial and temporal variability is recognized as one of the main reasons for spatial and temporal analyses of soil erosion variability. The weather types (WTs) approach classifies the continuum of atmospheric circulation into a small number of categories or types and has been proven a good indicator of the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation. Thus, the main objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between WTs, runoff, soil erosion (measured in plots), and sediment yield (measured in catchments) in different areas of the Iberian Peninsula (IP) with the aim of detecting spatial variations in these relationships. To this end, hydrological and sediment information covering the IP from several Spanish research teams has been combined, and related with daily WTs estimated by using the NMC/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. The results show that, in general, a few WTs (particularly westerly, southwesterly and cyclonic) provide the largest amounts of precipitation; and southwesterly, northwesterly and westerly WTs play an important role in runoff generation, erosion and sediment yield as they coincide with the wettest WTs. However, this study highlights the spatial variability of erosion and sediment yield in the IP according to WT, differentiating (1) areas under the influence of north and/or northwesterly flows (the north coast of Cantabria and inland central areas), (2) areas under the influence of westerly, southwesterly and cyclonic WTs (western and southwestern IP), (3) areas in which erosion and sediment yield are controlled by easterly flows (Mediterranean coastland), and (4) lastly, a transitional zone in the inland northeast Ebro catchment, where we detected a high variability in the effects of WTs on erosion. Overall results suggest that the use of WTs derived from observed atmospheric pressure 4 patterns could be a useful tool for inclusion in future projections of the spatial variability of erosion and sediment yield, as models capture pressure fields reliably.

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