Assessing the hydrological response from an ensemble of CMIP5 climate projections in the transition zone of the Atlantic region (Bay of Biscay)

Meaurio, Maite; Zabaleta, Ane; Boithias, Laurie; Epelde, Ane Miren; Sauvage, Sabine; Sánchez‐Pérez, José‐Miguel; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Antigüedad, Iñaki

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.02.029

Cited by 54 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 105 publications

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“…The correlation found between the predictand and predictors in the case of precipitation was low, this was expected considering other similar studies and the difficulties for downscaling with high accuracy daily precipitation (Hashmi et al 2011;Huang et al 2011;Meaurio et al 2017). For regions at high elevation (Sabana de Bogota and Rio Catatumbo) superpredictor were found at 500 hPa while for regions at low elevations (Alta Guajira and Bajo Meta) superpredictors were found at surface level and 850 hPa.…”

Section: Screening Of Predictorssupporting

confidence: 70%

Projected climate changes in four different regions in Colombia

Molina

Bernhofer

2019

Environ Syst Res

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Background: Considering the lack of research over this region the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used as a tool for downscaling meteorological data statistically over four representative regions in the eastern side of Colombia. Data from the two Global Climate Models CanESM2 and IPSL-CM5A-MR, which are part of the CMIP5-project have been used to project future maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and relative humidity for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. For both models, the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 were considered, representing two different possible future emission trajectories and radiative forcings. Predictor variables from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-DOE 2) reanalysis dataset, together with analyzed correlation coefficient (R) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used as performance indicators during the calibration and validation process. Results: Results indicate that Maximum and minimum temperature is projected to increase for both Global Climate Models and both Representative Concentration Pathways; relative humidity shows a decreasing trend for all scenarios and all regions; and precipitation shows a slight decrease over three regions and an increase over the warmest region. As expected, the results of the simulation for the period 2071-2100 show a more drastic change when compared to the baseline period of observations. Conclusions: The SDSM model proves to be efficient in the downscaling of maximum/minimum temperature as well as relative humidity over the studied regions; while showing a lower performance for precipitation, agreeing with the results for other statistical downscaling studies. The results of the projections offer good information for the evaluation of possible future-case scenarios and decision-making management.

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Section: Screening Of Predictorssupporting

confidence: 70%

Projected climate changes in four different regions in Colombia

Molina

Bernhofer

2019

Environ Syst Res

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“…Because GCMs are generally formulated for diagnosing synoptic weather patterns and offering climate data of coarse spatiotemporal resolution, they tend to underestimate extreme rainfall events [22,23], which are the main driver of flooding disasters. Though an increase in the resolution of GCMs would improve the estimations of extreme rainfall (e.g., [15,[24][25][26][27]), applying model bias correction to the projected rainfall to obtain a better simulated runoff is still needed, especially over areas of complex topography (e.g., [20,28,29]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Flood Extremes Using Downscaled CMIP5 High-Resolution Ensemble Projections of Near-Term Climate for the Upper Thu Bon Catchment in Vietnam

Nam¹,

Hoa²,

Phan

et al. 2019

Water

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Exploring potential floods is both essential and critical to making informed decisions for adaptation options at a river basin scale. The present study investigates changes in flood extremes in the future using downscaled CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5) high-resolution ensemble projections of near-term climate for the Upper Thu Bon catchment in Vietnam. Model bias correction techniques are utilized to improve the daily rainfall simulated by the multi-model climate experiments. The corrected rainfall is then used to drive a calibrated supper-tank model for runoff simulations. The flood extremes are analyzed based on the Gumbel extreme value distribution and simulation of design hydrograph methods. Results show that the former method indicates almost no changes in the flood extremes in the future compared to the baseline climate. However, the later method explores increases (approximately 20%) in the peaks of very extreme events in the future climate, especially, the flood peak of a 50-year return period tends to exceed the flood peak of a 100-year return period of the baseline climate. Meanwhile, the peaks of shorter return period floods (e.g., 10-year) are projected with a very slight change. Model physical parameterization schemes and spatial resolution seem to cause larger uncertainties; while different model runs show less sensitivity to the future projections.

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“…Unravelling the effects of land cover on hydrological services is especially important in a climatic transition zone like the Bay of Biscay (Meaurio et al, 2017), which is characterised by a steep precipitation gradient and is subject to the uncertain effects of climate change in terms of magnitude and temporal distribution of precipitation projections. In this regard, the methodology developed in this study to deal with the interactions between the two drivers (i.e., precipitation and land cover) increases the understanding of how various land cover combinations affect hydrological services across an entire precipitation gradient.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land cover effects on hydrologic services under a precipitation gradient

Zabaleta¹,

Garmendia²,

Mariel³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle are altering the quantity, quality, and temporal distribution of riverine discharge, necessitating a more rigorous consideration of changes in land cover and land use. This study establishes relationships between different land cover combinations (e.g., percentages of forest -both native and exotic -and pastureland) 15 and hydrological services, using hydrological indices estimated at annual and seasonal time scales in an area with a steep precipitation gradient (900-2600 mm y -1 ). Using discharge data from 20 catchments in the Bay of Biscay, a climate transition zone, the study applied multiple regression models to better understand how the interaction between precipitation and land cover combinations influence hydrological services. Findings showed the relationship between land cover combinations and hydrological services is highly dependent on the amount of precipitation, even in a climatically homogeneous and relatively 20 small area. In general, in the Bay of Biscay area, the greater presence of any type of forests is associated with lower annual water resources, especially with greater percentages of exotic plantations and high annual precipitation. Where precipitation is low, forests show more potential to reduce annual and winter high flows than pasturelands, but this potential decreases as annual or seasonal precipitation increases. As annual precipitation increases, low flows increase as the percentage of exotic plantations decreases and pasturelands increase. Results obtained in this study improve understanding of the multiple effects 25 of land cover on hydrological services, and illustrate the relevance of land planning to the management of water resources, especially under a climate change scenario.

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Assessing the hydrological response from an ensemble of CMIP5 climate projections in the transition zone of the Atlantic region (Bay of Biscay)

Cited by 54 publications

References 105 publications

Projected climate changes in four different regions in Colombia

Projected climate changes in four different regions in Colombia

Assessment of Flood Extremes Using Downscaled CMIP5 High-Resolution Ensemble Projections of Near-Term Climate for the Upper Thu Bon Catchment in Vietnam

Land cover effects on hydrologic services under a precipitation gradient

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