This work tries to determine whether it is possible to stabilize CO 2 emissions under a rapid increase of Gross Domestic Product in a medium term. The paper is an effort to study in detail how changes in the driving forces of the economy affect CO 2 emissions. We study the case of Venezuela for the period 1980-2025, using the methodology proposed by Robalino-López et al. [1,2], which is based on an extension of the Kaya identity and on a GDP formation approach that includes the effect of renewable energies. We test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) [3] hypothesis in a coming future under different economic scenarios considering, therefore, not only past data but also projections for the coming years. We use cointegration techniques [4] and the Jaunky [5] specification to test the fulfillment of the EKC hypothesis in Venezuela. Our predictions show that Venezuela does not fulfill the EKC hypothesis, but however, the country could be on the way to achieve environmental stabilization in the medium term. This stabilization could be accomplished combining economic growth with increasing use of renewable energy, appropriated changes in the energy matrix, and in the productive sectoral structure.

It is clear that renewable energy plays a crucial role in achieving a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents a model approach of CO 2 emissions in Ecuador in the upcoming years, up to 2020. The main goal of this work is to study in detail the way the changes in the energy matrix and in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will affect the CO 2 emissions of the country. In particular, we will pay special attention to the effect of a reduction of the share of fossil energy, as well as of an improvement in the efficiency of the fossil energy use. We have developed a system dynamics model based on a relationship, which is a variation of the Kaya identity, and on a GDP that depends on renewable energy, which introduces a feedback mechanism in the model. The main conclusion is that it is possible to control the CO 2 emissions even under a scenario of continuous increase of the GDP, if it is combined with an increase of the use of renewable energy, with an improvement of the productive sectoral structure and with the use of a more efficient fossil fuel technology. This study offers useful lessons for developing countries, and it could be used as a policy-making tool because it is easily transferable to any other time period or region.

Is it possible for a country in the process of development to comply with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in the medium term? This is question that inspired this study. This paper is an extension of a previous study focused on economic development and CO 2 emissions in the coming years in Ecuador (Robalino-López et al., 2013). The main goal of this paper is to analyze whether the EKC hypothesis holds within the period 1980-2025 under four different scenarios. This paper uses co-integration techniques (Stock and Watson, 1993) to test the existence of the EKC hypothesis in Ecuador in the medium term using the Jaunky's specification (Jaunky, 2011). Our proposal goes a step further than previous contributions, and intends to see under which conditions a country could approach the fulfilment of this hypothesis in the medium term. Results do not support the fulfilment of the EKC, nevertheless, our estimations show that Ecuador could be on the way to achieving environmental stabilization in the near future if economic growth is combined with an increase in the use of renewable energies, an improvement of the productive sectoral structure, and the use of a more efficient fossil fuel technology.

This paper analyzes the convergence in CO 2 emissions per capita (CO 2 emissions over population) among ten South American countries from 1980 to 2010 based on their Kaya components [1], namely, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity (energy consumption over GDP) and CO 2 intensity (CO 2 emissions over energy consumption). We apply Phillips and Sul (2007) methodology [2] to tests the existence of convergence clubs in the pathway of evolution of each Kaya component. This work tries to find out whether a set of countries in the region share common convergence patterns in CO 2 emission per capita and in its driving forces. Our results show that the region, as a whole, does not present a global convergence pattern regarding CO 2 emissions per capita, however, the evidence suggests the formation of various convergence clubs for each Kaya component and the existence of two groups of countries in which there is full Kaya convergence, i.e,. convergence in CO 2 emissions per capita, gross domestic product per capita, energy intensity and CO 2 intensity. The first group, k 1 , stands for countries with the best general economic performance, Chile and Uruguay. The second full Kaya convergence group, k 2 , includes the two largest economies of the region, Argentina and Brazil, and the country which has a value in the di↵erent Kaya components closer to the regional average, Ecuador. On the other hand, only Colombia seems to show that an improvement in both energy and carbon intensity leads to the stabilization or even to the reduction of CO 2 emissions.

E-government for Sustainable Development is one of international cooperation strategy in dealing with environmental protection and ecological problems through enhanced citizen participation, better access and quality of services in order to achieve Green Governments. In this context, some countries are supported by international assistance to achieve this goal with benchmarking and benchlearning approaches. This research contributes to explain the relationship between improvements in governance influences in economic, social and environmental development and how such regional cooperation on the development of national information and communication technology (ICT) strategies and programs is related to E-government and Sustainable Development. This comparative study of Andean countries takes a Rational Neo-institutionalist perspective to look at longitudinal changes in these developing countries. Quantitative data such as E-government index is combined with qualitative information from reports and documents in order to empirically examine effects of e-government on sustainable development in these countries. The findings show that the strategies adopted by Ecuador have significantly contributed to its location within the references in progress of E-government and Sustainable Development in the region. The research suggests that E-government development has positive effects on better governance and sustainable development of Andeans countries. Advancement on E-government is not only a trait of developed countries but also serves as an enabler for sustainable development of developing countries.

The energy sector is an important factor that influences life quality and economic prosperity. Differences in infrastructure, technology and even in culture of each country make it imperative to include their own characteristics into energy analyses, making it necessary to identify the different types of sources of CO2 emissions and their magnitudes. The aim of this paper is to present a foresight analysis of the productive and energy matrices dynamics in Ecuador for the period 2016–2030 and to propose public policy that contributes to sustainable development. In a first stage, the research has an explanatory character, referring to construction of a model, which uses an extended variation of the Kaya Identity where the volume of CO2 emissions may be examined quantifying contributions of productive sectors activity, sectorial energy intensity, energy matrix, and CO2 emission features. Subsequently, the research acquires a predictive-experimental nature, using exploratory scenarios. That allows linking historic and present events with hypothetical futures. In consequence, driving forces of the scenario can be explained and analysed using quantitative modelling based on the Kaya Identity and qualitative narratives. Within this study two scenarios were built. The Business as Usual scenario, without modifying the structure of productive and energy matrices, and the Alternative scenario that seeks to reduce the consumption of oil derivatives in land transport, which consumes 50% of the country’s energy demand. The Alternative scenario, which promotes the use of biofuels, projects to reduce the CO2 emissions from 45.58 to 43.41 Mt of CO2 equivalent for 2030. The policy on biofuels in Ecuador is at an early stage. So, biofuels offer important opportunities: i) diversification of the energy matrix, ii) contribution to energy security, iii) promotion of the growth of the industrial sector, and iv) substitution of fossil fuels and mitigation of the greenhouse gas effects.

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Decomposition Analysis (DA) is widely applied in understanding changes of economical, technological, environmental, and different indicators as energy consumption, employment and other socio-economic indicators. This work discusses the DA methodology and is applied within Ecuadorian case. We present the used technique, the applied mathematical methodology and the construction of an appropriate identity to measure the change of CO2 emission in Ecuador during the period of 1980-2025. Change is measured in both macro and disaggregated sectorial level. Specific aspects related to the application of DA to both the historical period (1980-2010) and in medium term prevision (2011-2025) for four proposed macro scenarios are discussed. The findings show that the evolution of the BS scenario, which implies a trend-growth GDP scenario, is almost a flat curve, however the CO2 emission increases steadily because of the absence of attenuation measurements. A similar behavior, although slightly sloping down, is observed for SC-2 scenario, where a rapid growth of the GDP is assumed without any attenuation action regarding to CO2 emissions. The other two scenarios, SC-3 and SC-4 show a steady reduction of the Dtot = Dact ratio due to the changes in the sectorial structure and in the energy mix, which allows compensation of rapid GDP growth. This analysis suggests that, with the appropriate changes in the energy mix, the sectorial structure, and the share of renewable energies, Ecuador can move into a more environmentally sustainable state.