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D I S C U S S I O N P A P E R S E R I E SIZA Discussion Papers often represent preliminary work and are circulated to encourage discussion.Citation of such a paper should account for its provisional character. A revised version may be available directly from the author.
ABSTRACT The Dynamics of Entrepreneurship: Hysteresis, Business Cycles and Government PolicyThis paper estimates an unobserved components model to explore the macro dynamics of entrepreneurship in Spain and the US. We ask whether entrepreneurship exhibits hysteresis, defined as a macro dynamic structure in which cyclical fluctuations have persistent effects on the natural rate of entrepreneurship. We find evidence of hysteresis in Spain, but not the US, while in both countries business cycle output variations significantly affect future rates of entrepreneurship. The article discusses implications of the findings for the design of entrepreneurship policies.
JEL Classification:C32, E32, J24
This work tries to determine whether it is possible to stabilize CO 2 emissions under a rapid increase of Gross Domestic Product in a medium term. The paper is an effort to study in detail how changes in the driving forces of the economy affect CO 2 emissions. We study the case of Venezuela for the period 1980-2025, using the methodology proposed by Robalino-López et al. [1,2], which is based on an extension of the Kaya identity and on a GDP formation approach that includes the effect of renewable energies. We test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) [3] hypothesis in a coming future under different economic scenarios considering, therefore, not only past data but also projections for the coming years. We use cointegration techniques [4] and the Jaunky [5] specification to test the fulfillment of the EKC hypothesis in Venezuela. Our predictions show that Venezuela does not fulfill the EKC hypothesis, but however, the country could be on the way to achieve environmental stabilization in the medium term. This stabilization could be accomplished combining economic growth with increasing use of renewable energy, appropriated changes in the energy matrix, and in the productive sectoral structure.
Previous studies provide suggestive evidence that entrepreneurship varies with the state of the business cycle. This article extends the knowledge base by exploring whether the rate of selfemployment -a widely used measure of entrepreneurship -is a lagging or leading indicator of the business cycle. The study, which utilizes time series UK data on aggregate output, unemployment and self-employment rates, is robust to structural breaks in the cyclical relationships between these variables. The study finds evidence of significant bi-directional causality: that is, entrepreneurship both causes and is caused by business cycles. The covariance of entrepreneurship is positive with respect to output and negative with respect to unemployment.
This paper is aimed to test the causality relationship between the cycles of tourism and economic development for the case of Spain using quarterly time-series data on gross domestic product, the number of nights spent in Spanish tourist accommodations and real exchange rates from 1980 to 2013. A distinction between nights spent by foreign and national tourists is also made. Although no evidence of causality is found on preliminary results, structural breaks affecting the relationships between the variables are detected. Causality from economic growth towards tourist activity is found until 1985. Results also confirm bidirectional causality from 2000 onwards.
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