System dynamics modeling for renewable energy and CO2 emissions: A case study of Ecuador

Abstract

It is clear that renewable energy plays a crucial role in achieving a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents a model approach of CO 2 emissions in Ecuador in the upcoming years, up to 2020. The main goal of this work is to study in detail the way the changes in the energy matrix and in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will affect the CO 2 emissions of the country. In particular, we will pay special attention to the effect of a reduction of the share of fossil energy, as well as of an improvement in the efficiency of the fossil energy use. We have developed a system dynamics model based on a relationship, which is a variation of the Kaya identity, and on a GDP that depends on renewable energy, which introduces a feedback mechanism in the model. The main conclusion is that it is possible to control the CO 2 emissions even under a scenario of continuous increase of the GDP, if it is combined with an increase of the use of renewable energy, with an improvement of the productive sectoral structure and with the use of a more efficient fossil fuel technology. This study offers useful lessons for developing countries, and it could be used as a policy-making tool because it is easily transferable to any other time period or region.

Studying the relationship between economic growth, CO2 emissions, and the environmental Kuznets curve in Venezuela (1980–2025)

“…They conducted a sensitivity analysis showing that the economic growth and the increase of the population are the two main variables that modulate the value of CO 2 emissions. In [1] the authors developed a model based on the Kaya identity and on a formation of the GDP that depends on the use of renewable energies. The model was applied to Ecuador for the period 1980-2025.…”

“…Furthermore, Chien and Hu [10], Robalino-López et al [1,2] show that increasing the use of renewable energy improves the CO 2 emission efficiency of the economy.…”

“…One of our aims is to estimate CO 2 emissions in Venezuela during the period 2011-2025, using a model already presented in Robalino-López et al [1,2], under four different scenarios which constrain GDP, productive sectoral structure, energy intensity, and energy matrix. Moreover, we will try to disentangle how these factors affect CO 2 emissions and to know whether and when EKC hypothesis could be accomplished in Venezuela in the medium term.…”

“…To this end we use a model which is based on an extension of the Kaya identity 2 [17] and on a GDP formation approach which links renewable energy and income [18]. The methodology was first presented by Robalino-López et al [1,2] and was applied to Ecuador, here it will be applied to Venezuela.…”

“…The paper is an effort to study in detail how changes in the driving forces of the economy affect CO 2 emissions. We study the case of Venezuela for the period 1980-2025, using the methodology proposed by Robalino-López et al [1,2], which is based on an extension of the Kaya identity and on a GDP formation approach that includes the effect of renewable energies. We test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) [3] hypothesis in a coming future under different economic scenarios considering, therefore, not only past data but also projections for the coming years.…”