Wave energy flux (WEF) is assessed in the Caribbean Sea from a 60-year (1958--2017) wave hindcast. We use a novel approach, based on neural networks, to identify coherent regions of similar WEF and their association with different climate patterns. This method allows for a better evaluation of the underlying dynamics behind seasonal and inter-annual WEF variability, including the effect induced by the latitudinal migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the influence of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation events. Results show clear regional differences of the WEF variability likely due to both a clear regionalization of the WEF due to both the intensification and migration of the ITCZ. WEF exhibits a strong semiseasonal signal in areas of the continental shelf, with maximums in January and June, in agreement with the sea surface temperature and sea level pressure variability. At larger scales, WEF shows a significant correlation with the Oceanic Ni\~no Index depicting positive values in the central and western basin and negative ones at the eastern side.
3Determinación del RESUMEN determinó el clima de oleaje medio y extremal a partir de una serie de oleaje sintético de once años, obtenido del modelo global de oleaje WaveWatch III. La serie de altura de oleaje (Hs) fue ajustada a diferentes funciones de distribución de probabilidad (Weibull de mínimos, Normal, Log-normal, Gumbel de máximos), encontrando que ésta se ajustaba mejor a la función de distribución Weibull de mínimos, al igual que la serie de periodo pico (Tp). Se encontraron alturas de ola de 1,13 y 2,5 m que corresponden a probabilidades de no excedencia de 50 y 95 %, respectivamente. Esta serie de oleaje de de ola de 4,9 m para periodos de retorno de 100 años. Los resultados de la presente investigación son de relevancia para el posterior análisis de la evolución morfológica del Golfo de Urabá; así como para el diseño, funcionalidad y estabilidad de obras de ingeniería sobre el borde costero. PALABRAS CLAVES:Golfo de Urabá, WaveWatch III, régimen medio de oleaje, régimen extremal de oleaje. ABSTRACTThe average and extreme wave climate at north of the Gulf of Urabá was evaluated and determined from 11 years of synthetic wave serie derived from the global model surf WaveWatch III, in order to evaluate different oceanographic scenarios. The series of wave height ( Hs ) was adjusted to different probability distribution functions ( minimum happened for the number of peak wave period ( Tp ) . Waves heights were found from 1.13 and 2.5 m, wich correspond years. These results are relevant to the subsequent analysis of the morphological evolution of the Gulf of Urabá, as well as for the design, functionality and stability of engineering works on the waterfront KEY WORDS: Gulf of Uraba, WaveWatch III, average wave regime, extreme wave regime.
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