This study finds that an increase in Indonesia’s domestic and foreign tourism led to a reduction in poverty and an increase in income inequality in both rural and urban regions. The important finding that greater reductions in poverty were accompanied by greater increases in income inequality highlights the difficulty in addressing this trade-off from a tourism boost. Accompanying policies, such as investment to raise labour productivity in tourism-related sectors of hotels and restaurants, led to greater poverty reduction than a cash transfer policy. The cash transfer policy, on the other hand, reduced urban poverty but did not increase urban income inequality, unlike in the rural areas. Thus, there is no ‘one size fits all’ policy to address poverty and income inequality in rural and urban areas, and whether or not policies need to be targeted differently for touristic and non-touristic urban/rural regions is an area for future research.
This article highlights the impacts on poverty, income inequality, and the macroeconomic and sectoral output resulting from increases in the value-added tax and sales tax on hotels and restaurants using Indonesia as a case study. While taxing tourism-related sectors was ineffective in reducing poverty and income inequality, using tax revenue from the value-added tax as a cash transfer policy was effective and more so in rural Indonesia. Tax revenue used for infrastructural development was however limited in its impact on poverty and income distribution. Overall, the negative effects of taxation on various industries and the contraction of GDP and employment in the economy need to be mitigated. This can be done with an appropriate policy mix for the use of tax revenue between cash transfers and expenditure in education and health, with the view to address potential resource misallocation and output contraction in other industries.
Using ex post tariff schedules for the first time, it was found that the global gains provided by the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are not enough to overcome the negative impacts of the United States–China trade dispute. While trade tensions cause China's welfare loss to be more than twice as large as the United States, they provide some trade diversion to RCEP members. But of concern is if India successfully delays the conclusion of the RCEP even by a year, there will be a global loss of US$17.7 billion. The RCEP is also beneficial for the emerging economy of Vietnam and the high‐tariff‐imposing Korean economy. The results obtained here are, however, conservative as reduction in non‐tariff barriers and other positive spillover effects of trade liberalisation related to investment and productivity improvements due to competition or increased intra‐industry trade could not be accounted for.
This study investigated the impacts of increasing the prices of heavily protected food commodities in Indonesia on producer and consumer prices. It also evaluated the changes in household living expenses and poverty. The Indonesian Food Social Accounting Matrix was developed along with a price multiplier matrix–microsimulation approach that was used to analyze problems. Poor rural households were the most negatively affected by the increments in food prices. This result contrasted with the standard political argument stating that high rice prices will decrease poverty, particularly in rural areas where the poor live or work as farmers. Of all the food commodities observed, the changes in the rice prices had the most substantial impact on both producer and consumers price, as well as the households’ living cost, particularly low‐income households. Therefore, an increase of 25% in rice price will raise urban, rural, and national poverty levels by 0.13%, 0.10%, and 0.11%, respectively.
A major energy transformation is required to prolong the rise in global temperature below 2 °C. The Indonesian government (GoI) has set a strategy to gradually remove fuel subsidies to meet its 2050 ambitious energy targets. Using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the present study aimed to determine whether or not the current energy subsidy reforms would meet the targets of both energy mix and energy intensity. It also incorporated the environmental aspect while developing a source of a detailed database in the energy sector. The energy subsidy reform policy (followed by an increase in infrastructure and renewable energy investments) could be the most appropriate alternative policy if the government aims to reduce energy intensity and emission, as well as improve energy diversification without pronounced reductions in the sectorial and overall economy. However, all simulations suggested that the removal of energy subsidy does not enough in attaining the targeted energy mix and energy intensity goals. Thus, the Indonesian government should also introduce progressive programs in renewable energy.
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