Fire regime shapes serotiny level among populations, and in populations with high serotiny, recurrent fires maintain a significant spatial structure for this trait. Consequently, fire has long-term evolutionary implications at different scales, emphasizing its prominent role in shaping the ecology of pines.

SummaryWildfire is a major ecological driver of plant evolution. Understanding the genetic basis of plant adaptation to wildfire is crucial, because impending climate change will involve fire regime changes worldwide. We studied the molecular genetic basis of serotiny, a fire-related trait, in Mediterranean maritime pine using association genetics.A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) set was used to identify genotype : phenotype associations in situ in an unstructured natural population of maritime pine (eastern Iberian Peninsula) under a mixed-effects model framework. RR-BLUP was used to build predictive models for serotiny in this region. Model prediction power outside the focal region was tested using independent range-wide serotiny data.Seventeen SNPs were potentially associated with serotiny, explaining approximately 29% of the trait phenotypic variation in the eastern Iberian Peninsula. Similar prediction power was found for nearby geographical regions from the same maternal lineage, but not for other genetic lineages.Association genetics for ecologically relevant traits evaluated in situ is an attractive approach for forest trees provided that traits are under strong genetic control and populations are unstructured, with large phenotypic variability. This will help to extend the research focus to ecological keystone non-model species in their natural environments, where polymorphisms acquired their adaptive value.

Serotiny is a heritable trait in P. halepensis, and selection acts on it, giving rise to contrasting serotiny levels among populations depending on the fire regime, and supporting the role of fire in generating genetic divergence for adaptive traits.

Phenotypic plasticity is a main mechanism for organisms to cope with changing environments and broaden their ecological range. Plasticity is genetically based and can evolve under natural selection, such that populations within a species show distinct phenotypic responses to the environment if evolved under different conditions. Understanding how intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity arises is critical to assess potential adaptation to ongoing climate change. Theory predicts that plasticity is favored in more favorable but variable environments. Yet, many theoretical predictions about benefits, costs, and selection on plasticity remain untested. To test these predictions, we took advantage of three genetic trials in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, which assessed 23 closely located Pinus ponderosa populations over 27 years. Mean environmental conditions and their spatial patterns of variation at the seed source populations were characterized based on six basic climate parameters. Despite the small area of origin, there was significant genetic variation in phenotypic plasticity for tree growth among populations. We found a significant negative correlation between phenotypic plasticity and the patch size of environmental heterogeneity at the seed source populations, but not with total environmental spatial variance. These results show that populations exposed to high microhabitat heterogeneity have evolved higher phenotypic plasticity and that the trigger was the grain rather than the total magnitude of spatial heterogeneity. Contrary to theoretical predictions, we also found a positive relationship between population plasticity and summer drought at the seed source, indicating that drought can act as a trigger of plasticity. Finally, we found a negative correlation between the quantitative genetic variance within populations and their phenotypic plasticity, suggesting compensatory adaptive mechanisms for the lack of genetic diversity. These results improve our understanding of the microevolutionary drivers of phenotypic plasticity, a critical process for resilience of long‐lived species under climate change, and support decision‐making in tree genetic improvement programs and seed transfer strategies.