Existing surface water flood forecasting methods in Scotland are based on indicative depth‐duration rainfall thresholds with limited understanding of the likelihood of inundation or associated impacts. Innovative risk‐based solutions are urgently needed to advance surface water forecasting capabilities for improved flood resilience in urban centres. A new model‐based solution was developed for Glasgow, linking 24‐h ensemble rainfall predictions from the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System for the UK (MOGREPS‐UK) with static flood risk maps through the Grid‐to‐Grid hydrological model. This new forecasting capability was used operationally by the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service during the 2014 Commonwealth Games to provide bespoke surface water flooding guidance to responders. The operational trial demonstrated the benefits of being able to provide targeted information on real‐time surface water flood risk. It also identified the high staff resource requirement to support the service due to the greater uncertainty in surface water flood forecasting compared to established fluvial and coastal methods.
In recent years, significant investment has been made in the operational flood forecasting capabilities of the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (Sepa) through the continued development of its flood early warning system (Fews Scotland). Under the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009, Sepa's current flood forecasting and warning responsibilities have now been formalised and strengthened, giving Sepa a statutory basis for all flood warning activities. Sepa is now committed to developing its flood forecasting capabilities in response to this legislative driver. This paper presents key flood forecasting initiatives commissioned by Sepa to meet this strategic need. These include an initiative to develop a joint hydrometeorological flood forecasting service in Scotland supported by a national distributed hydrological model for Scotland, the first operational implementation of a Delft3D-Flow model for coastal forecasting within the Delft-Fews environment on the Firth of Clyde, and a step-change in forecasting capabilities through rapid development of rainfall–runoff, routing and hydrodynamic modelling. These significant improvements enable delivery of an effective flood warning service that aims to reduce the impact of flooding from all sources.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.