The use of deterministic and probabilistic forecasting in countrywide flood guidance in Scotland

Maxey, Richard; Cranston, Michael; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, P.

doi:10.7558/bhs.2012.ns33

Cited by 15 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The effect of urban and suburban land cover on runoff and downstream flows is also included. The model addresses the ungauged hydrological forecasting problem and facilitates forecasting ‘everywhere' (Cole & Moore, ) and is used within the Flood Forecasting Centre (England and Wales) and the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service for national‐scale operational forecasting (Maxey, Cranston, Tavendale, & Buchanan, ; Price et al, ). Although the G2G has been used to assess the impact of climate change on river flooding (Bell et al, ; Bell, Kay, Davies, & Jones, ) it has not, until now, been used to analyse the impact on SWF.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact

Rudd

Kay

Wells

et al. 2019

Hydrological Processes

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Surface water flooding (SWF) is a recurrent hazard that affects lives and livelihoods.Climate change is projected to change the frequency of extreme rainfall events that can lead to SWF. Increasingly, data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are being used to investigate the potential water-related impacts of climate change; such assessments often focus on broad-scale fluvial flooding and the use of coarse resolution (>12 km) RCMs. However, high-resolution (<4 km) convection-permitting RCMs are now becoming available that allow impact assessments of more localised SWF to be made.At the same time, there has been an increasing demand for more robust and timely real-time forecast and alert information on SWF. In the UK, a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model framework has been developed. The system uses 1-km gridded surface runoff estimates from a hydrological model to simulate the SWF hazard. These are linked to detailed inundation model outputs through an Impact Library to assess impacts on property, people, transport, and infrastructure for four severity levels.Here, a set of high-resolution (1.5 km and 12 km) RCM data has been used as input to a grid-based hydrological model over southern Britain to simulate Current (1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009) and Future (~2100s; RCP8.5) surface runoff. Counts of thresholdexceedance for surface runoff and precipitation (at 1-, 3-and 6-hr durations) are analysed. Results show that the percentage increases in surface runoff extremes, are less than those of precipitation extremes. The higher-resolution RCM simulates the largest percentage increases, which occur in winter, and the winter exceedance counts are greater than summer exceedance counts. For property impacts, the largest percentage increases are also in winter; however, it is the 12-km RCM output that leads to the largest percentage increase in impacts. The added-value of highresolution climate model data for hydrological modelling is from capturing the more intense convective storms in surface runoff estimates. K E Y W O R D Sclimate change, hazard, impact, modelling, pluvial flooding, surface water flooding

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact

Rudd

Kay

Wells

et al. 2019

Hydrological Processes

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“…soil types) (Bell et al 2009). It has previously been used to investigate potential changes in future flooding (Bell et al 2012(Bell et al , 2016 and is used by the Flood Forecasting Centre for England and Wales and the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service (Price et al 2012, Maxey et al 2012). G2G performs well for a wide range of catchments across Britain (Bell et al 2009), particularly those with more natural flow regimes as it currently does not include the effect of artificial influences like abstractions and discharges (e.g.…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes

et al. 2018

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Article (refereed) -postprint Kay, A.L.; Bell, V.A.; Guillod, B.P.; Jones, R.G.; Rudd, A.C. 2018. Nationalscale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes. Climatic Change, 147 (3-4). 585-599. AbstractThe potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes is of increasing concern across the globe. Here a national-scale grid-based hydrological model is used to investigate historical trends and potential future changes in low flow frequency across Great Britain. The historical analyses use both observational data and ensemble data from a regional climate model . The results show relatively few significant trends in historical low flows (2-or 20-year return period), whether based on 7-day or 30-day annual minima. Significant negative trends seen in some limited parts of the country when using observational data are generally not seen when using climate model data. The future analyses use climate model ensemble data for both near-future and far-future timeperiods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099 respectively), which are compared to a baseline sub-period from the historical ensemble . The results show future reductions in low flows, which are generally larger in the south of the country, at the higher (20-year) return period, and for the later time-period. Reductions are more limited if the estimates of future potential evaporation include the effect of increased carbon dioxide concentrations on stomatal resistance. Such reductions in river flow could have significant impacts on the aquatic environment and on agriculture, and present a challenge for water managers, especially as reductions in water supply are likely to occur alongside increases in demand.

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“…The Grid-to-Grid (G2G) is a national-scale runoff-production and routing model that provides estimates of river flows, runoff and soil moisture on a 1km 2 grid across Great Britain (Bell et al, 2009). The model has a time step of 15 minutes and is used within the Flood Forecasting Centre (England and Wales) and the Scottish Flood Forecasting Service for countrywide operational forecasting (Price et al, 2012;Maxey et al, 2012). The G2G has also been used to assess the impact of climate change on flooding (Bell et al, 2012;Bell et al, 2016).…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

National-scale analysis of simulated hydrological droughts (1891–2015)

Rudd

Bell

Kay

2017

Journal of Hydrology

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The use of deterministic and probabilistic forecasting in countrywide flood guidance in Scotland

Cited by 15 publications

References 10 publications

Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact

Investigating potential future changes in surface water flooding hazard and impact

National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes

National-scale analysis of simulated hydrological droughts (1891–2015)

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