National-scale analysis of simulated hydrological droughts (1891–2015)

Rudd, Alison; Bell, V. A.; Kay, Alison L.

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.05.018

Cited by 52 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 79 publications

(84 reference statements)

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“…Groundwater levels in the Chalk respond to local hydro-climatology, they are sensitive to episodes of drought and depend on a combination of catchment characteristics, such as unsaturated zone thickness, and intrinsic hydraulic properties of the aquifer, such as hydraulic diffusivity (Bloomfield and Marchant, 2013). A characteristic feature of the Chalk aquifer, as noted by Bloomfield et al (2015) and Rudd et al (2017), is that, compared with other aquifers in the UK, such as the Permo-Triassic Sandstones and Jurassic Limestone aquifers, it is relatively susceptible to droughts, typically experiencing more severe and prolonged responses to droughts than other major aquifers in the UK.…”

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal modelling of the status of groundwater droughts

Marchant

Bloomfield

2018

Journal of Hydrology

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An empirical (geo)statistical modelling scheme is developed to address the challenges of modelling the severity and distribution of groundwater droughts given their spatially and temporally heterogeneous nature and given typically highly irregular groundwater level observations in space and time. The scheme is tested using GWL measurements from 948 observation boreholes across the Chalk aquifer (UK) to estimate monthly groundwater drought status from 1960 to 2013. For each borehole, monthly GWLs are simulated using empirical mixed models where the fixed effects are based on applying an impulse response function to the local monthly precipitation. Modelled GWLs are standardised using the Standardised Groundwater Index (SGI) and the monthly SGI values interpolated across the aquifer to produce spatially distributed monthly maps of SGI drought status for 54 years for the Chalk. The mixed models include fewer parameters than comparable lumped parameter groundwater models while explaining a similar proportion (more than 65%) of GWL variation. In addition, the empirical modelling approach enables confidence bounds on the predicted GWLs and SGI values to be estimated without the need for prior information about catchment or aquifer parameters. The results of the modelling scheme are illustrated for three major episodes of multi-annual drought (1975-1976; 1988-1992; 2011-2012). They agree with previous documented analyses of the groundwater droughts while providing for the first time a systematic, spatially coherent characterisation of the events. The scheme is amenable to use in near real time to provide short term forecasts of groundwater drought status if suitable forecasts of the driving meteorology are available.

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Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio-temporal modelling of the status of groundwater droughts

Marchant

Bloomfield

2018

Journal of Hydrology

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“…effluent returns) on river flows. It has recently been shown to perform well specifically for low flows and for drought identification (Rudd et al 2017).…”

Section: Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The observation-based run of the hydrological model (OBS hereafter) covers 1889-2015, and uses 1km grids of daily rainfall from CEH-GEAR (Keller et al 2015, Tanguy et al 2016) and 5km grids of monthly PE derived from monthly temperature data using the method of Oudin et al (2005) (see Rudd et al (2017) for more detail, including bias-correction of temperature-based PE towards more physically-based PE). The PE are copied to each of the corresponding 1km boxes of the hydrological model grid, and both PE and rainfall are divided equally down to the 15-minute model time-step.…”

Section: Driving Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For the extended time-periods covered by the OBS run (1889-2015) and the HIST ensemble runs , a moving window approach is applied to enable analysis of low flow trends. The window, of length 30-years, is moved through each AMIN time-series (neglecting the first two years to allow for model spin up, Rudd et al 2017). A low flow frequency curve is fitted at each position of the window, resulting in derived time-series of 2-and 20-year return period low flows (sampling uncertainty on return period estimates is not considered).…”

Section: Low Flow Frequencymentioning

confidence: 99%

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National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes

et al. 2018

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Article (refereed) -postprint Kay, A.L.; Bell, V.A.; Guillod, B.P.; Jones, R.G.; Rudd, A.C. 2018. Nationalscale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes. Climatic Change, 147 (3-4). 585-599. AbstractThe potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes is of increasing concern across the globe. Here a national-scale grid-based hydrological model is used to investigate historical trends and potential future changes in low flow frequency across Great Britain. The historical analyses use both observational data and ensemble data from a regional climate model . The results show relatively few significant trends in historical low flows (2-or 20-year return period), whether based on 7-day or 30-day annual minima. Significant negative trends seen in some limited parts of the country when using observational data are generally not seen when using climate model data. The future analyses use climate model ensemble data for both near-future and far-future timeperiods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099 respectively), which are compared to a baseline sub-period from the historical ensemble . The results show future reductions in low flows, which are generally larger in the south of the country, at the higher (20-year) return period, and for the later time-period. Reductions are more limited if the estimates of future potential evaporation include the effect of increased carbon dioxide concentrations on stomatal resistance. Such reductions in river flow could have significant impacts on the aquatic environment and on agriculture, and present a challenge for water managers, especially as reductions in water supply are likely to occur alongside increases in demand.

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“…Although this needs to be borne in mind, its effect on drought is likely to be limited. G2G has been shown to perform well for a wide variety of catchments across Britain (Bell et al, ) and has recently been shown to perform well specifically for low flows and for historical drought identification (Rudd et al, ). The weather@home2 hydrological data set has been used to analyze potential future changes in low flows and drought characteristics (Kay et al, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the National Economic Impacts of Regulatory Drought Management on Irrigated Agriculture

et al. 2019

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Drought frequency and intensity is expected to increase in many regions worldwide, and water shortages could become more extreme, even in humid temperate climates. To protect the environment and secure water supplies, water abstractions for irrigation can be mandatorily reduced by environmental regulators. Such abstraction restrictions can result in economic impacts on irrigated agriculture. This study provides a novel approach for the probabilistic risk assessment of potential future economic losses in irrigated agriculture arising from the interaction of climate change and regulatory drought management, with an application to England and Wales. Hydrometeorological variability is considered within a synthetic data set of daily rainfall and river flows for a baseline period (1977–2004) and for projections for near future (2022–2049) and far future (2072–2099). The probability, magnitude, and timing of abstraction restrictions are derived by applying rainfall and river flow triggers in 129 catchments. The risk of economic losses at the catchment level is then obtained from the occurrences of abstraction restrictions combined with spatially distributed crop‐specific economic losses. Results show that restrictions will become more severe, more frequent, and longer in the future. The highest economic risks are projected where drought‐sensitive crops with a high financial value are concentrated in catchments with increasingly uncertain water supply. This research highlights the significant economic losses associated with mandatory drought restrictions experienced by the agricultural sector and supports the need for environmental regulators and irrigators to collaboratively manage scarce water resources to balance environmental and economic considerations.

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National-scale analysis of simulated hydrological droughts (1891–2015)

Abstract: The NERC and CEH trademarks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner.

Cited by 52 publications

References 79 publications

Spatio-temporal modelling of the status of groundwater droughts

Spatio-temporal modelling of the status of groundwater droughts

National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of the National Economic Impacts of Regulatory Drought Management on Irrigated Agriculture

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