Advances in operational flood forecasting in Scotland

Cranston, Michael; Tavendale, Amy

doi:10.1680/wama.2012.165.2.79

Cited by 15 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…In this respect, EWS for floods present quite different features if they are established along large or small rivers. In the first case, rainfall measurements or predictions are supplemented with river stage measurements in upstream sections (e.g., Rabuffetti and Barbero, 2005), and flood routing models can be run as a cascade of hydrological models (e.g., Cranston and Tavendale, 2012). The lead time of prediction, which depends on the length of the river and on the extension of its catchment, can extend up to several days or weeks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

Greco

Pagano

2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. To manage natural risks, an increasing effort is being put in the development of early warning systems (EWS), namely, approaches facing catastrophic phenomena by timely forecasting and alarm spreading throughout exposed population. Research efforts aimed at the development and implementation of effective EWS should especially concern the definition and calibration of the interpretative model. This paper analyses the main features characterizing predictive models working in EWS by discussing their aims and their features in terms of model accuracy, evolutionary stage of the phenomenon at which the prediction is carried out and model architecture. Original classification criteria based on these features are developed throughout the paper and shown in their practical implementation through examples of flowlike landslides and earth flows, both of which are characterized by rapid evolution and quite representative of many applications of EWS.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

Greco

Pagano

2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Decision-making on the assessment of flood risk and on the issuing of river-and stream-scale alerts is a significant challenge in the context of operational weather forecasting. Combining NWP and hydrological models has been proven to be valuable in addressing this difficult task [25][26][27][28]. However, the production and dissemination of flood-related information using advanced hydrometeorological models and convenient communication methods on an operational basis have received little attention in the Southeast Mediterranean.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pre-Operational Application of a WRF-Hydro-Based Fluvial Flood Forecasting System in the Southeast Mediterranean

et al. 2021

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The Southeast Mediterranean (SEM) is characterized by increased vulnerability to river/stream flooding. However, impact-oriented, operational fluvial flood forecasting is far away from maturity in the region. The current paper presents the first attempt at introducing an operational impact-based warning system in the area, which is founded on the coupling of a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model with an advanced spatially-explicit hydrological model. The system’s modeling methodology and forecasting scheme are presented, as well as prototype results, which were derived under a pre-operational mode. Future developments and challenges needed to be addressed in terms of validating the system and increasing its efficiency are also discussed. This communication highlights that standard approaches used in operational weather forecasting in the SEM for providing flood-related information and alerts can, and should, be replaced by advanced coupled hydrometeorological systems, which can be implemented without a significant cost on the operational character of the provided services. This is of great importance in establishing effective early warning services for fluvial flooding in the region.

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“…Fluvial and coastal flood warning systems offer long lead times and bespoke local information for individual at-risk areas (for details of the UK system see Cranston & Tavendale, 2012;Dale, Davies, & Harrison, 2012, Price et al, 2012 F I G U R E 1 Typical structure of an end-to-end surface water flood forecasting system Werner, Cranston, Harrison, Whitfield, & Schellekens, 2009). Due to the challenges of forecasting surface water flooding, the same level of information is not available for pluvial events.…”

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confidence: 99%

Operational and emerging capabilities for surface water flood forecasting

et al. 2021

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Surface water (or pluvial) flooding is caused by intense rainfall before it enters rivers or drainage systems. As the climate changes and urban populations grow, the number of people around the world at risk of surface water flooding is increasing. Although it may not be possible to prevent such flooding, reliable and timely flood forecasts can help improve preparedness and recovery. Unlike riverine and coastal flooding where forecasting methods are well established, surface water flood forecasting presents a unique challenge due to the high uncertainties around predicting the location, timing, and impact of what are typically localized events. Over the past 5 years, there has been rapid development of convection‐permitting numerical weather prediction models, ensemble forecasting, and computational ability. It is now theoretically feasible to develop operational surface water forecasting systems. This paper identifies three approaches to surface water forecasting utilizing state‐of‐the‐art meteorological forecasts: empirical‐based scenarios, hydrological forecasts linked to presimulated impact scenarios, and real‐time hydrodynamic simulation. Reviewing operational examples of each approach provides an opportunity to learn from international best practice to develop targeted, impact‐based, surface water forecasts to support informed decision‐making. Although the emergence of new meteorological and hydrological forecasting capabilities is promising, there remains a scientific limit to the predictability of convective rainfall. To overcome this challenge, we suggest that a rethink of the established role of flood forecasting is needed, alongside the development of interdisciplinary solutions for communicating uncertainty and making the best use of all available data to increase preparedness. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Engineering Water

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Advances in operational flood forecasting in Scotland

Cited by 15 publications

References 8 publications

Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

Basic features of the predictive tools of early warning systems for water-related natural hazards: examples for shallow landslides

Pre-Operational Application of a WRF-Hydro-Based Fluvial Flood Forecasting System in the Southeast Mediterranean

Operational and emerging capabilities for surface water flood forecasting

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