Cloudbursts in and around the southern rim of the Indian Himalayas are elusive in terms of their position and time of occurrences. Most of the reported cloudbursts are in the interior of the Himalayas and hence their observation itself is limited. Most of these events are reported once their affect in terms of loss to life and property is experienced in the downstream habitats. In addition, they are mostly associated with flash floods as an impact of the torrential precipitation. The principal understanding of the cloudburst is associated with sudden heavy
In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006–2015), over the Asian‐Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more‐frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global‐mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.
Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year to year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to 3 months lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skilful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño and La Niña. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by sub-seasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale
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