Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios

Chevuturi, Amulya; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Turner, Andrew G.; Hannah, Shaun

doi:10.1002/2017ef000734

Cited by 76 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 71 publications

(123 reference statements)

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“…Even following the observed 0.5°C‐induced increasing rate, a 1.5°C warmer world seems not a safe option for China, as substantial risks of complex and nighttime hot extremes would be involved over above hot spots. Such inference coincides with projected outcomes (Chevuturi et al, ; Diffenbaugh et al, ; Li et al, ). Moreover, a future 0.5°C warming is expected to be an amplifier for the asymmetric growth in general hot days and nights (Diffenbaugh et al, ), so the ongoing type transition toward complex events will likely accelerate.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Detectable Impacts of the Past Half‐Degree Global Warming on Summertime Hot Extremes in China

Chen

Zhai

Zhou

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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Avoided risks in a 1.5°C warmer world as opposed to a 2°C one become urgent to be assessed after the Paris Agreement, especially at regional scales. To provide an observable analog, this study quantified detectable impacts of the past 0.5°C global warming on summertime hot extremes in China. The half‐degree global warming has preferentially facilitated the emergence and prevalence of complex hot extremes (sequential hot day‐night), which experienced a twofold‐fourfold increase in their frequency in Southeast China, lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and northern China, along with a doubling to tripling of duration and intensity. The past global warming of 0.5°C further exacerbated the vulnerability of above hot spots by exposing them to drastically augmented (over 300%) excess heat accumulated during the severest complex events. These observation‐based solid evidences imply that a 0.5°C reduction in future global warming does matter for China to avoid excessively escalated risks of complex hot extremes.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 84%

Detectable Impacts of the Past Half‐Degree Global Warming on Summertime Hot Extremes in China

Chen

Zhai

Zhou

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…King et al 2017, Nangombe et al 2018, Zhang et al 2018, Zhou et al 2018. Among them, the CMIP (Coupled Models Intercomparison Project) models and dynamical downscaling with regional models have been widely used to access changes in precipitation extremes in different regions of the world (King et al 2017, Zhang and Villarini 2017, Aerenson et al 2018, Chevuturi et al 2018, Dosio and Fischer 2018, Li et al 2018b, Li et al 2018c, Li et al 2018d, Nikulin et al 2018, Zhou et al 2019. Results from the HAPPI (Half-a-degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) project (Mitchell et al 2017) have also been used to reveal mean precipitation changes in East Asia (Lee et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme precipitation over East Asia under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming targets: a comparison of stabilized and overshoot projections

Zhou

Zhang

2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

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Highly populated East Asia is vulnerable to extreme precipitation. Here, we use Community Earth System Model low-warming simulations to examine how extreme precipitation events may change in East Asia under the Paris Agreement global warming targets. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase markedly over East Asia in the warmer climates. Limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5°C, in comparison with 2°C, will reduce the risks of extreme precipitation frequency and intensity in East Asia by 26%-31%, with the greatest reductions (38%-54%) in Japan. A brief overshoot of the 1.5°C target would affect Mongolia, the Korean Peninsula and Japan from the aspects of regional average. More than 25% of the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation in these regions can be avoided during the end of the 21st century (2081-2100) if there is no temperature overshoot, according to the best estimate. Vertical moisture advection is the main contributor to changes in precipitation-minus-evaporation in East Asia in the warmer climates. The increased low-level specific humidity and cyclonic circulation changes are the dominant thermodynamic and dynamical processes that contribute to the increase of precipitation over South China and Japan. Our work suggests that limiting warming to 1.5°C without overshoot is beneficial to minimizing the impacts associated with precipitation extremes across East Asia.

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“…Although the Half a Degree Additional Warming, Projections, Prognosis, and Impacts model intercomparison project generated such simulations that have been widely used (e.g., Chevuturi et al, 2018;Lewis et al, 2017), they all applied fixed climatological sea surface temperatures and therefore did not account for coupled atmosphere-ocean internal variations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Although the Half a Degree Additional Warming, Projections, Prognosis, and Impacts model intercomparison project generated such simulations that have been widely used (e.g., Chevuturi et al, 2018;Lewis et al, 2017), they all applied fixed climatological sea surface temperatures and therefore did not account for coupled atmosphere-ocean internal variations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Thus, it is crucial to perform climate scenario simulations with stabilization at the warming levels defined by the Paris Agreement. Although the Half a Degree Additional Warming, Projections, Prognosis, and Impacts model intercomparison project generated such simulations that have been widely used (e.g., Chevuturi et al, 2018;Lewis et al, 2017), they all applied fixed climatological sea surface temperatures and therefore did not account for coupled atmosphere-ocean internal variations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Ignoring this important source of internal ocean-atmosphere variability can lead to significant underestimation of the climate response to extra forcing (Lehner et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Additional Intensification of Seasonal Heat and Flooding Extreme Over China in a 2°C Warmer World Compared to 1.5°C

Lin

Wang

et al. 2018

Earth's Future

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The Paris Agreement commits to stabilizing global mean surface warming to below 2°C (above preindustrial levels) and strives to limit it to 1.5°C to mitigate the risks of anthropogenic climate change. This study explores the impacts of stabilized 1.5°C and 2°C warming in the late 21st century on seasonal climate extremes over China by using a set of coupled Earth system model simulations explicitly targeting these warming levels. Our results show that global warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C will lead to increases in surface air temperature (precipitation) averaged over China of 1.3°C and 1.9°C (11.6% and 13.3%), respectively, compared to 1976-2005. Climate extremes over China will become more frequent in a warmer world. Relative to the 1976-2005, the frequency of events similar to the 2013 extreme hot summer in eastern China and extreme flooding during the summer of 2010 in southeastern China will increase by 16 or 33 times and 2 or 3 times, respectively, given a global temperature increase of 1.5°C or 2°C. In particular, events similar to the 2013 extreme hot summer will occur almost yearly in a 2°C warmer world. The likelihood of an event similar to the 2014 extreme hot spring in northeastern China will increase to 8% or 20% in a 1.5°C or 2°C warmer world, whereas such events were rare during 1976-2005. Given these dangerous consequences, we conclude that there are discernible benefits for China to contribute to the global decarbonization effort to limit global warming to below 1.5°C rather than 2°C. Key Points:• Global warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C will lead to increases in surface air temperature and precipitation averaged over China • Seasonal heat and flooding extremes over China will become more frequent in a 1.5°C or 2°C warmer world • Limiting the global warming at 1.5°C rather than 2°C will substantially reduce the frequency of those seasonal climate extremes in China , W. (2018). Additional intensification of seasonal heat and flooding extreme over China in a 2°C warmer world compared to 1.5°C. Earth's Future, 6, 968-978. https://doi.

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Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios

Cited by 76 publications

References 71 publications

Detectable Impacts of the Past Half‐Degree Global Warming on Summertime Hot Extremes in China

Detectable Impacts of the Past Half‐Degree Global Warming on Summertime Hot Extremes in China

Extreme precipitation over East Asia under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming targets: a comparison of stabilized and overshoot projections

Additional Intensification of Seasonal Heat and Flooding Extreme Over China in a 2°C Warmer World Compared to 1.5°C

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